05-29-2012, 03:51 PM | #2817 |
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Farcebook has completely ruined the already poor relationship between the retail investor with Wall-Street. It's sad that so many people lost money but they should have know what they were getting into.
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05-30-2012, 10:01 AM | #2818 | |
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05-30-2012, 01:15 PM | #2819 |
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Anybody seeing the incredible move in US 10 year yields? Anybody seeing the dollar breakout again today? And the euro collapsing? Selling pressure being compacted into a smaller trading week, for sure. The move in treasuries and us dollar tells me much more downside is coming.
Btw, if things get pretty bad (this isn't a timeline thing, just a reminder I guess) and the markets crash, do not trap yourself in stocks. ETFs are the only thing liquid enough to get out.
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05-30-2012, 05:23 PM | #2820 |
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Another day of selling tomorrow? I thought about stacking up on JPM puts but ran out of time and the order didn't fill. I still have puts though, mostly GOOG. The Greeks will cause the European markets to collapse for sure and I'm sure it'll happen over the weekend or Friday afternoon, and that's to be expected.
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05-30-2012, 06:11 PM | #2821 | |
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ECB came out and said no more Bond-buying programs, no more LTRO3. ECB told governments they are "own their own". Chinese government has just come out and said the exact same thing; "We have no interest in launching any stimulus". And the FED will bring no QE3 or Twist extension this June. The end game is approaching very soon, and June will not be a pretty month. That's why I said a while back I expected a collapse not in May, but in June/July time frame. We shall see. I should write a post sometime about how Solvent Banks can actually be very insolvent.
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05-31-2012, 03:53 PM | #2823 | |
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Short covering rally today after news of IMF bailing out Spain. But look how quick the rumours prove to be, IMF is actually not in any negotiations with Spain at all about financial assistance, nor are they planning any.
Looks like the big boys are pumping rumors into the circuit to load up some short covers before this thing goes down. Ignore the tape, it's meant to distract you today. Concentrate on the USD, Euro, and yield movements. All have hit extremes, day after day. This is a telling sign of some very bad things to happen. Either 1) US 10 & 30 yields, Spain 2 & 10 yields, USD, Euro, German Bunds, Commodities, Semi-conductor markets, Euro/Asian markets, and everything else are over-extended relative to the US equity markets, and they need to come down and reverse so that US Equities can take off, OR, 2) Equities does not belong at these current levels and has to make an extreme move itself to re-establish equilibrium with all of the technical signals atm. This scenario is a crash. And I believe we are walking the fine line here, and a crash is either happening now or within the next days, weeks, or 2 months (June-July). This theory is completely invalid however, if more Stimulus arises. And as I've said in the previous post: Quote:
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05-31-2012, 07:21 PM | #2824 | |
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05-31-2012, 11:33 PM | #2825 | |
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Vanity, what do you think about the market going onto the fifth elliot wave on the daily/weekly chart? We seem to be completing wave four right now and we should be seeing wave five soon. Not my chart but this is what I'm referring to. http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/wp-c...PlanWeekly.png |
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06-01-2012, 12:38 PM | #2826 | |
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06-01-2012, 03:18 PM | #2828 | |
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Vanity, do you not wanna buy this dip? I sort of do.. |
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06-01-2012, 03:43 PM | #2829 | |
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And I'm updating my chart from last week.
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06-01-2012, 07:57 PM | #2831 |
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Put up the NYSE chart you're looking at. From what I can see, there is plenty of room to fall before a bottom occurs?
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06-03-2012, 09:10 PM | #2832 |
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Dear mother of goodness, I hope everyone followed the last few posts and sold everything long....
Rowr, you didn't buy into the close for Friday, did you? :/
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06-03-2012, 10:13 PM | #2834 |
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I'm still a couple k into SPXU @ 50 (well, 10 before the split) and I've been in TVIX since thursday so I'm good right now. I bought LNKD options for their June ER so I might lose a little on that but other than that, I'm not long at all.
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06-04-2012, 01:20 AM | #2835 | |
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06-04-2012, 01:13 PM | #2836 |
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Glad I was up early when the market was up and was able to sell those calls
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06-04-2012, 04:25 PM | #2837 |
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Big intraday reversal, today was supposed to be our firework crash down. It didn't happen. Market participants are now trying to hold this house of cards together with rumors: master plan in Germany, ECB talks on Wed, Bernanke on thurs. today's intraday reversal on the day of a crash tells me we will be seeing one final pump and dump (possibly).
Scenario 1: we rally to 1290-1340 on news, that will ultimately disappoint. This sets us up for an absolutely enormous meltdown (more than scenario 2) so it would be good to buy shorts all the way up to these levels. Scenario 2: this is the resemblance of August 3rd, 2011, where the day looked like a bottom but then was follow by 60 and 80 handles down the following next day. Is would take us to, in his scenario, 1200 before a relief, and then resume the crash (ultimate target 900-1050).
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06-05-2012, 09:50 PM | #2838 |
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Hmmm. A strange week so far, we still have room to the upside and I will probably unload my calls tomorrow and play whatever happens next safely. Doesn't Bernanke speak on Thursday?
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