10-10-2014, 04:20 PM | #4534 |
Captain
126
Rep 876
Posts |
interesting...SPX closed at 1906 today...so odds of my prediction hitting 1905 monday am is actually quite good after all...
Dumped EMES already...dont feel like holding anything over the weekend...the way we closed today I am back to my original theory. I could see mom and pop really start to panic over the weekend with a lot of mkt order sells at the open come monday...we shall see. |
Appreciate
0
|
10-10-2014, 11:57 PM | #4536 | |
Captain
1590
Rep 803
Posts |
Quote:
Now, I need to allocate my RAD money to buy AMD at lower cost avg. If I were you, I would play safe and buy 7.5k before earning, and 7.5k after.
__________________
Beware of Jeff Oliver the fraud at Highland Expedition Outfitters (aka HEO or HEOutfitters) located in Cosby TN.
|
|
Appreciate
0
|
10-11-2014, 01:16 AM | #4537 | |
Captain
321
Rep 905
Posts |
Quote:
That's ok, though. During after hours trading AMD dipped to a low of 2.70 and actually hit a local high of 2.80. Even if I can make a short term gain of ~10% with AMD I'll be thrilled. I'll probably call it quits and sell at a loss if AMD drops 25% below my purchase price. Right now I'm really focused on TVIX. I'm just itching for SPY to reach another all time high so I can feel confident getting in again. If we ever get around to that point I'm fairly certain I'll go in heavier than I did last time (maybe 70k or 75k shares @ mid $2s I'm guessing). If that doesn't happen I don't think I'll touch TVIX again. It's just far too risky of an instrument to get in nonchalantly as an amateur. But man if the S&P500 hits even 2000 (which is still shy of its all time high) I'll probably jump in on TVIX again. |
|
Appreciate
0
|
10-11-2014, 01:43 AM | #4538 | |
Captain
1590
Rep 803
Posts |
Good move.
I've been following AMD since 2012, and made good trade AND investment on it. Changing CEO to Lisa Su was a great move. Every conference call, Lisa was probably only one who wasn't (or at least sound like) talking off of teleproctor. However, timing was really off. I think most of people probably analyze this as possible missed earning. However, the company has fiduciary duty to warn in most cases. Their Soc , apu and gpu will be good. Console will be available to China. I just hope they can announce few semi-custom deals on conference call this Thursday. Quote:
__________________
Beware of Jeff Oliver the fraud at Highland Expedition Outfitters (aka HEO or HEOutfitters) located in Cosby TN.
|
|
Appreciate
0
|
10-13-2014, 10:52 AM | #4540 | |
Banned
76
Rep 961
Posts |
Quote:
|
|
Appreciate
0
|
10-13-2014, 12:26 PM | #4541 |
Brigadier General
1891
Rep 3,027
Posts |
I'm just a random stock picker, nowhere near the experts on here, but I have a pretty good history of riding short-term volatility to a modest gain (i.e. 3% in 1-2 weeks). I just look for fundamentally solid territory with recent volatility and an appearance of being oversold....yeah, I don't crunch many numbers
Just bought KKR for 250 shares on Friday as I think it's modestly oversold. Of course, I sold Alny last week for an 8% gain prior to today's announcement spiking it by 22%. Can't always time it perfectly
__________________
2021 m550i - 37.5k miles - possibly the best BMW ever made
Some notable priors: AW/Carbonstructure 6MT 2015 M3 70,000 miles driven, 2001 m5, 2008 535xit, 2008 911 turbo 6mt,1999 Boxster 5mt, 2019 Jeep Wrangler Sahara 6mt |
Appreciate
0
|
10-13-2014, 04:11 PM | #4542 |
Captain
126
Rep 876
Posts |
what did I tell you guys about mom and pop taking a look over weekend and starting to panic abit.....
Remember this post from 8/25/14??...we topped in mid Sept. All time high hit as predicted...Targeting 2028 SPX ...within next several weeks I bet for that top...will unload all longs soon to get ready for significant int term selloff...probably when Apple announces iPhone 6. |
Appreciate
0
|
10-13-2014, 04:29 PM | #4543 |
Captain
126
Rep 876
Posts |
all about supply and demand...technicals sniff out the possibilities before it is overtly apparent...hence imho, trumps everything...fundamentals kind of work during bulls but so does throwing darts....during bears, fundamentals doesn't matter...so what has changed in all the stocks that have and will continued to fall with respect to earnings potential over past few weeks...nothing...but they will go down like all other stocks cause thats what happens during bears, even if its a mini-bear.
I have some friends who in poker terms would be called donkeys and they were spouting off stuff about MBLY and GPRO from their brokers and scalping some points...that virtually guarantees a significant selloff is coming. Kind of like during the real estate bubble when doctors and lawyers thought they were real estate developers.... |
Appreciate
0
|
10-13-2014, 04:43 PM | #4544 |
Lieutenant General
11737
Rep 11,191
Posts |
|
Appreciate
0
|
10-13-2014, 05:55 PM | #4545 | |
Colonel
705
Rep 2,548
Posts
Drives: '08 135i, '88 325is
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Denver, CO
|
Quote:
Correct me if I am wrong, but I thought you were a young guy in college. How does someone earn that kind of money to invest while in school?
__________________
Delivered in Munich, broken in on the Nurburgring.
|
|
Appreciate
0
|
10-13-2014, 06:00 PM | #4546 |
Banned
76
Rep 961
Posts |
Dang. Free fall mode every day. I guess this is what the end of a bull market looks like... So Mact, you're looking for continued downside and then a rally to near or new ATHs but on negative divergence?
|
Appreciate
0
|
10-13-2014, 06:47 PM | #4547 | |
Captain
1590
Rep 803
Posts |
Quote:
Not that hard. When I was young guy in college it was pre-dotcom bubble, and made SOME $. It was easy money back then.
__________________
Beware of Jeff Oliver the fraud at Highland Expedition Outfitters (aka HEO or HEOutfitters) located in Cosby TN.
|
|
Appreciate
0
|
10-13-2014, 07:58 PM | #4548 |
Banned
76
Rep 961
Posts |
I've gotta hand it to Mact though. He's been calling the market correctly for the past several years almost to the dot. I think he's some Wall Street billionaire pretending to be a regular ole' M3 driver on an Internet forum.
|
Appreciate
0
|
10-15-2014, 12:39 PM | #4552 | |
Captain
126
Rep 876
Posts |
Quote:
you are a smart one......imagine how much you would be down if you were 100% all in still?...not pretty...and then if you are all in and freaking out, you know with 95% certainty the moment you panic sell, the mkts will either bounce or make a bottom just to annoy you further...mkts are great for stealing from the avg joe...its set up for that actually. I told you guys mom and pop would wake up this past weekend and selling will get fierce cause nobody likes to lose the entire years gain and this exacerbates the free fall even further. Most of the stock price movements can be explained by human nature and character rather than fundamentals. Its abit early to call a bottom(even a temporary one) cause i need to examine the charts more. Anyone else find it odd to get accurate mkt forecasts for free going on 3-4 yrs on a BMW message board?......and i don't even drive a BMW anymore...maybe I should help my Audi compatriots out?... just kiddin haha. F1Venom...man was I close to pulling trigger on that GTR during recent fire sale. |
|
Appreciate
0
|
10-15-2014, 12:43 PM | #4553 |
Banned
76
Rep 961
Posts |
Mact, just trade for a day and you'll make more than enough for one. And if you'd like to know, dealers are still getting those $10k incentives from Nissan so I'm sure you can get a 2014 BE for mid-$80s now.
|
Appreciate
0
|
10-15-2014, 12:47 PM | #4554 |
Captain
126
Rep 876
Posts |
remember one thing...the reason you don't try to catch the exact top is because when it turns bearish it falls at 10 times the rate as bullish grind, so there isn't a lot of time to react.
many will lose most if not all their previous bull gains within 2-4 weeks of a bear cause thats how fast it will free fall...matter for fact, the first few weeks often look like normal healthy pullbacks...in the meantime, something nasty is brewing underneath. Many will grind out gains during bulls cause its like throwing darts and but you need to catch the hot sector and ride it, but the real key is knowing when to get out...at the end of the day getting out of the way of a bear is just as important as catching it on the upside cause it can go away and turn into losses really fast. |
Appreciate
0
|
Post Reply |
Bookmarks |
Thread Tools | Search this Thread |
|
|