01-28-2015, 02:25 PM | #4819 | |
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It would be really nice if QCOM and BLX gets into bidding war.
Cross licensing? Non-transferable? LOL. Analysts got this wrong. Quote:
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01-28-2015, 03:04 PM | #4820 | |
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01-28-2015, 11:47 PM | #4821 | |
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I'm probably going to wait it out on the sidelines. I shouldn't be too greedy, especially when I don't really know what I'm doing. |
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01-29-2015, 01:13 AM | #4822 | |
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AMD was one of my biggest joy of Nov2012-Jan2014 (cap gain), but has been pain in my @ss this year by getting back in.
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01-29-2015, 10:49 AM | #4823 | |
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Also, if anyone is looking for stock-picking or market-timing advice, this forum is not the "ideal" place for that.
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01-29-2015, 10:52 AM | #4824 | |
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On a related note, if you are paying anything more than .2-.4 percentage points (in fees and expenses combined) for basic market exposure (broad market indexes, large-cap equity funds)...you are doing it wrong. There is so much that can be had for so little.
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01-29-2015, 01:13 PM | #4825 | |
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01-29-2015, 01:37 PM | #4826 | ||
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More often than not, it is used as marketing term by brokers and firms to impress naive clients. If there truly were some technical metric (like P/E ratio's) that was able to predict bull and bear markets, everyone would be using that method to time the markets. Truth be told, everyone and their mother has a different opinion on the future of the markets...except for stock brokers. According to stock brokers, it's always a good time to buy (got to love those commission salaries)...
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01-29-2015, 04:29 PM | #4827 | |
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Sooo, when I picked the top on volatile stocks to the penny in the past it was by random chance?... Its true there are no systems that are 100 % accurate, but some are better than others...kinda like when I said we would make new all time highs 4 years ago when people were bearish. You have been most helpful so far, keep it up... For a minute, I thought a BMW board would be the perfect place to get market timing and stock tips....thx bro |
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01-29-2015, 04:35 PM | #4828 | |
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He’s provided an opinion relevant to the thread topic that is supported by an overwhelming amount of factual evidence and research. To me, that’s the definition of a “Great contribution.” I’ll let you get back to your stock market wizardry though. |
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01-29-2015, 05:21 PM | #4829 |
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Let me give 2cents on Technical Analysis
Let me be the first to say, I love technical analysis.
It is a great way to find out when I can find the good entry and exit point/price, relative to time, volume, and dv. However, there are so many "eyeball" "draw a cockeye line" Technical Analysis. People who actually does the real TA, calculate the metrics of it. Yes, Technical Analysis will be totally off when there is some crazy stuff or miss earnings by 10% type of event. However, it is as important as other indication/indicators such as Fundamental. Back in the 50's specialist/market maker will be standing on NYSE and traded stock based on supply and demand. Now, they use computer and algorithm to predict the market based on every variables and factors out there. Therefore Technical Analysis followers are getting more accurate and accurate by time. Investing Solely based on TA is just ridiculous, but dismissing TA is even more ridiculous.
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01-29-2015, 06:17 PM | #4830 | |
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Go put that 'special' skill of yours to use and work for some big name firm. Everyone thinks their stock-picking methods are effective...until they aren't and the next bear market takes everyone by surprise. Plenty of people, far smarter and far more dedicated than either your or I have tried to apply technical analysis towards a long-term market strategy...the % of fund managers and stock-pickers who have consistently outperformed the market on a long-term basis, are few to none...and those few that do consistently outperform do so mostly because of chance. Edit: Please note that the keyword in all this is consistency. It's nice if you have used this strategy once in the past to great effect...but until you have demonstrated that your methods can consistently achieve certain results, you've got nothing special going on.
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01-29-2015, 08:29 PM | #4831 | |
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If you want to increase your chances of getting returns on your investments that outperform or at least equal market performance, you should: 1) look for low-cost funds with broad market exposure (typically index funds are the best in this category) 2) look for funds with low-manager turn-over 3) stick to your plan (ie dont sell when the market is down and try to load up on riskier assets when the market is rising) There are plenty of academic papers that list low cost, asset allocation, and manager experience as some of the driving factors behind portfolio performance.
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01-29-2015, 08:30 PM | #4832 | |
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01-29-2015, 09:04 PM | #4833 | |
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01-30-2015, 01:16 AM | #4834 | |
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so let me get this straight, we are on a BMW MB and people are slinging free advice/opinions and you expect black box algo's discourse?... sheesh, I better tell Stevie Cohen I can't post on here anymore cause a few people on a BMW thread said TA isn't 100% accurate and that nothing is...shocking! People, we are on a free BMW MB, we can pretty much say anything we want no?...the day I or anyone else on here gets paid for making posts, then we should be held accountable... Until then we are still in bull but the undercurrents still continue to be shaky...the heavy institutionals aren't buying as much and this rally is fed by retail but this doesn't mean the mkts won't go up on light volume, but in the end I still believe in Effective Volume and delta charts. As I have said many times before, 90% will lose money trading on ST time frame, you will have better luck with "ignorance is bliss long" in a bull mkt. The metals cratered, then momo's such as 3D printing, now oil with the dollar surge. Euro crashing now. Bonds cont to rise and 10 yr rates at all time lows. Tech leaders like AAPL, AMZN, TSLA, GOOG, FB start to break down watch out...a few like GOOG and TSLA already looking abit shaky. Something evil is brewing underneath the surface, we are in prob 4th longest bull ever and at some point, when it breaks it will break down hard. We will see a 40-50% selloff within a 6 month span of the start of selloff, just as the sun rises in the east but when?. That remains the key question, but as of right now, I don't see a top at all. You know how TA is important?. Cause when mkt's fail to hold key technical levels the floodgates open and the selloff is vicious. Self fulfilling prophecy?....maybe. |
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01-30-2015, 01:22 AM | #4835 |
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Lastly, if the critical ones on this thread have ever read this thread in the past, they would know I have said many many times "never ever listen to anyone blindly on here, especially me!". You gotta do your own dd and cause nobody will take the losses for you. Think I have even said "if you are smart, you would never ever listen to a word I say".....
People are just throwing out ideas and thoughts and nothing more....so relax. |
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01-30-2015, 09:45 AM | #4836 | |
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Consistency...if you can demonstrate consistent results using your TA methods, then you have a leg to stand on...until then I would caution anyone on this forum from drinking the TA coolaid. Also, to your comment in bold, very few people ever see the market 'top' or peak coming. That's why when the market has peaked and corrected in the past, the investor outflow from riskier assets into safer ones occurred after the correction had already begun.
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01-30-2015, 09:55 AM | #4837 |
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I'll be honest, I don't know anything about stocks but here is what I do know-
With a 500K portfolio, you can open up almost any franchise and make 10K a month without even blinking an eye... in the stock market, that is purely luck. 3 types of people make money in the stock market- 1) Insiders 2) Corporate Raiders (Market Movers) 3) People in on an IPO Everyone else is either a penny pusher, playing dumb luck or falsely believing some sort of technical argument that in the end never turns out to be factual once history happens. No one has ever gotten rich off the stock market without already having massive amounts of cash or having a setup business outside of this venture through other means. It's as simple as that. |
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01-30-2015, 11:07 AM | #4838 | |
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01-30-2015, 11:17 AM | #4839 |
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