[NemesisX]

Originally Posted by tc328

For my 401k, I put everything into fix income for now (did this three weeks ago). Slowly allocate back to stock funds as it goes down...then max my contributions when the market is at its low/lowest

For LT/ST, Im waiting for NFLX to go under $100.

Missed out on a day trade on UWTI today when it was below $180...could of make $10k in few hours, oh well could of, should of!!!

You've lost your mind.

Also, you should be maxing out your contributions now (if you can) regardless of whether or not you think the market is too "rich' at the moment.

[NotoriousART]

Originally Posted by tc328

For my 401k, I put everything into fix income for now (did this three weeks ago). Slowly allocate back to stock funds as it goes down...then max my contributions when the market is at its low/lowest

This is "timing the market" and it doesn't work.

[David70]

Originally Posted by dragonsi

Pretty crappy way to start off the new year. What's everyone thinking as far as their game plan?

I change nothing based on daily/monthly news. For all that people like to talk about guessing where the market is headed virtually no one times it correctly and some of the ones that do just get lucky. Only thing I might do is use some of the cash I have set aside to buy, and there isn't that much extra because I don't try to time the market (much - as I have been slowly saving up some money).

Low cost mutual funds, diversified portfolio. Simple, low expense, and I don't worry about what I read in today's paper because none of the money is going to be used today, this month or this year.

[nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn]

Originally Posted by David70

I change nothing based on daily/monthly news. For all that people like to talk about guessing where the market is headed virtually no one times it correctly and some of the ones that do just get lucky. Only thing I might do is use some of the cash I have set aside to buy, and there isn't that much extra because I don't try to time the market (much - as I have been slowly saving up some money).

Low cost mutual funds, diversified portfolio. Simple, low expense, and I don't worry about what I read in today's paper because none of the money is going to be used today, this month or this year.

This is possibly the smartest post in this whole thread. We should get a mod to lock it now.

Nothing screws up your retirement savings and investing more than messing around with your account.

[tc328]

I know timing the market is hard to achieve and sounds silly but I done it in the pass. Worst case is Im earning less in my investments/retirement.

[NickyC]

To put the final nail in the coffin of whatever it was that has driven this ridiculous rally the past eight, oops make that seven years, please allow Richard Fisher to explain.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/richar...135519223.html

Funduuurmentals my everlovin ARSE. Good luck going forward peeps!

[David70]

Originally Posted by tc328

I know timing the market is hard to achieve and sounds silly but I done it in the pass. Worst case is Im earning less in my investments/retirement.

Throwing darts with your eyes closed will have you sometimes hitting the bulls eye, "I've done it in the past" doesn't mean it is a good plan. I completely believe that some of the market timing you have done in the past was successful, question is if your timing puts you ahead or behind what doing nothing (not trying to time it) would have gotten you.

Obviously the worst case is you don't earn as much.

Originally Posted by NickyC

To put the final nail in the coffin of whatever it was that has driven this ridiculous rally the past eight, oops make that seven years, please allow Richard Fisher to explain.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/richar...135519223.html

Funduuurmentals my everlovin ARSE. Good luck going forward peeps!

He points out what has happened in the past and says things may be slow going forward, again not seeing any reason to panic or change anything.

If he could give us dates of what will happen and how much up or down it would really be impressive.

[hadeed]

$AMZN will pop after earnings

[tc328]

Originally Posted by David70

Throwing darts with your eyes closed will have you sometimes hitting the bulls eye, "I've done it in the past" doesn't mean it is a good plan. I completely believe that some of the market timing you have done in the past was successful, question is if your timing puts you ahead or behind what doing nothing (not trying to time it) would have gotten you.

Obviously the worst case is you don't earn as much.

He points out what has happened in the past and says things may be slow going forward, again not seeing any reason to panic or change anything.

If he could give us dates of what will happen and how much up or down it would really be impressive.

If the funds performance are negative for the previous months after I time the mrkt then I know what I did was good (or bad).

401k also go true when we "buy low, sell high"

[BayMoWe335]

Crying.

[MrPrena]

Originally Posted by MrPrena

Buy CALL at 19?

TWTR at 19 was attractive 2weeks ago, but not anymore...

I gotta do more HW now. I got F'ed 2 straight trade. That rarely happens to me.

[mact3333]

As posted on 12/2/15

1. Swapped out my kids 529 accounts into cash today, are we at THE top right now, probably not, but trying to catch the last 10% of the rally is for suckers...imho....when it goes, it will go fast and before most realize what is happening...while many will expect a selloff, they will expect usual 10-20% correction but it will go beyond that...when mom/pop panic, thats when you must commit for the long term again to maximize your returns.

2. If you trade oil base on inventory, you will lose...oil is traded in USD and money supply reigns supreme here...oil has been hammered not due to inventories, but because everyone knows interest rates are going to go up leading to a contraction of the money supply, hence the dollar has been strong ...US dollar goes up, commodities must come down.

3. I told you guys 3 years ago we were going to make new all time highs and we were going to rally for a long time...not sure many believed me at the time...now we are getting really close to that top...too early to short now but no need to be aggressively long either....prudent to be cautious now....Bernanke and Yellen have always made it clear what to do...most things can be explained by the expansion/contraction of the money supply and how humans respond to this.

All JMHO of course.





We are extremely close to confirming a longterm top and bear mkt....not wise to try to catch that last 10% of the rally cause that 10% can go away in like 3 days.

At this point most of the money will be made to the downside once we get that bear confirmation. The easy money on the way up is over and has been for awhile. Remember when I was pumping DTO(double inverse oil), now look at oil and DTO. The value of the US dollar is the key to oil prices. The has been like the 4th longest rally of all time, the next bear will be be significant(not quite as bad as 2008-9 though).

anyone yet????

[ScarecrowBoat]

Originally Posted by mact3333

As posted on 12/2/15
We are extremely close to confirming a longterm top and bear mkt....not wise to try to catch that last 10% of the rally cause that 10% can go away in like 3 days.

At this point most of the money will be made to the downside once we get that bear confirmation. The easy money on the way up is over and has been for awhile. Remember when I was pumping DTO(double inverse oil), now look at oil and DTO. The value of the US dollar is the key to oil prices. The has been like the 4th longest rally of all time, the next bear will be be significant(not quite as bad as 2008-9 though).

anyone yet????

I see that you obviously know a lot about what you're doing, but just out of curiosity how do you reconcile what you're saying with the fact that you're basically claiming to be able to time the market?

Really not wanting to seem like I'm calling you out, just wondering what the logic is behind what you're saying.

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by ScarecrowBoat

I see that you obviously know a lot about what you're doing, but just out of curiosity how do you reconcile what you're saying with the fact that you're basically claiming to be able to time the market?

Really not wanting to seem like I'm calling you out, just wondering what the logic is behind what you're saying.

You wouldn't be the first to call me out on this thread.......I don't profess to know/time anything, I base my ecisions off of educated guesses...nobody knows anything with 100% certainty am I right?...I don't even know if I will make it home alive tonight....

I always used to preface everything I say with "if you were smart you wouldn't listen to a word I am saying"....you should do your own dd and never blindly follow anyone as nobody will cover your losses but yourself.

The reason why I won't reveal my methods is because it has taken a long time to cultivate my methods, why would I reveal them to a free OT message board?...some people, in the past, might have paid me for my services hehe.

One thing I will never do is come on here saying buy this company or that as earnings will rise blah blah...because what has really changed with respect to earnings and revenues over past month on many of the stocks currently tanking?..nothing...stocks go up when people buy and go down when people see, nothing more, nothing less.

When technical damage done to general mkt's, all stocks will tank, you can be sure of this.

BTW, we are currently at Defcon 3 right now...another few days pf heavy selling and we will progress to Defcon 4 and 5....

If we have entered a true long term bear, its still early in the game so need to panic ...the next bear will last 1-2 years.

[gtron]

it's like a red tag sale today. i'll buy some shit. no fucks given.

[NemesisX]

I bought 2000 shares of twitter today @ $18.60/share.

[MrPrena]

Originally Posted by NemesisX

I bought 2000 shares of twitter today @ $18.60/share.

People said I was on crackpipe (especially WABs people) when I said Twitter is going to 19 when it was 35/sr. Shit, it went lower.

I think we are turning ugly times ugly. Historically it is no brainier on election year. (although some idiots here thinks they are econ professor for predicting this obvious shit)Currently shopping for ultra/Ultra pro short index funds.

[MrPrena]

[ASBSECU E93]

It's time to strap the seat belts on the toilet and hold on....

[1MOREMOD]

Every morning

[NemesisX]

Originally Posted by MrPrena

People said I was on crackpipe (especially WABs people) when I said Twitter is going to 19 when it was 35/sr. Shit, it went lower.

I think we are turning ugly times ugly. Historically it is no brainier on election year. (although some idiots here thinks they are econ professor for predicting this obvious shit)Currently shopping for ultra/Ultra pro short index funds.

Haha I actually remember you getting flack for that!

I'm tempted to get in on a european ETF called VGK because they have a 7% dividend (at the moment), but I haven't pulled the trigger yet.

[David70]

Originally Posted by MrPrena

People said I was on crackpipe (especially WABs people) when I said Twitter is going to 19 when it was 35/sr. Shit, it went lower.

I think we are turning ugly times ugly. Historically it is no brainier on election year. (although some idiots here thinks they are econ professor for predicting this obvious shit)Currently shopping for ultra/Ultra pro short index funds.

I thought it was generally supposed to be a down year in an election year also but based just on the "election year", isn't this saying the opposite?

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=6185252&page=1

•In "Presidential Cycle," Ned Davis Research notes the S&P 500 posted its weakest returns in the first year of the four-year election cycle. Since 1900, stocks have gained just 3.4% on average in the post-election year, compared with gains of 4.0% in the midterm year, 11.3% in the pre-election year and 9.5% in an election year.

Or this -
http://moneyover55.about.com/od/howt...tionmarket.htm

Table Below Shows Market Returns for Each Election Year Since 1928
Data below is from Dimensional Funds Matrix Book.

S&P 500 Stock Market Returns
During Election Years
Year Return Candidates
1928 43.6%---Hoover vs. Smith
1932 -8.2%---Roosevelt vs. Hoover
1936 33.9%---Roosevelt vs. Landon
1940 -9.8%----Roosevelt vs. Willkie
1944 19.7%----Roosevelt vs. Dewey
1948 5.5%----Truman vs. Dewey
1952 18.4%----Eisenhower vs. Stevenson
1956 6.6%----Eisenhower vs. Stevenson
1960 .50%----Kennedy vs. Nixon
1964 16.5%----Johnson vs. Goldwater
1968 11.1%----Nixon vs. Humphrey
1972 19.0%----Nixon vs. McGovern
1976 23.8%----Carter vs. Ford
1980 32.4%----Reagan vs. Carter
1984 6.3%-----Reagan vs. Mondale
1988 16.8%----Bush vs. Dukakis
1992 7.6%-----Clinton vs. Bush
1996 23%-----Clinton vs. Dole
2000 -9.1%---Bush vs. Gore
2004 10.9%----Bush vs. Kerry
2008 -37%----Obama vs. McCain
2012 16%----Obama vs. Romney
2016 ? ?