[mact3333]

Originally Posted by TizzKO

It may be night here in the US but it's daytime in Asia and anyone can see Japan's market is tanking so most likely the US market will be down as well tomorrow. Is that your data point for this "prediction"?

There is a level on SPX I am watching, and odds favor we breach it tomorrow with ES trading down quite abit tonight .

[David70]

Originally Posted by mact3333

You wouldn't be the first to call me out on this thread.......I don't profess to know/time anything, I base my ecisions off of educated guesses...nobody knows anything with 100% certainty am I right?...I don't even know if I will make it home alive tonight....

I always used to preface everything I say with "if you were smart you wouldn't listen to a word I am saying"....you should do your own dd and never blindly follow anyone as nobody will cover your losses but yourself.

The reason why I won't reveal my methods is because it has taken a long time to cultivate my methods, why would I reveal them to a free OT message board?...some people, in the past, might have paid me for my services hehe.

One thing I will never do is come on here saying buy this company or that as earnings will rise blah blah...because what has really changed with respect to earnings and revenues over past month on many of the stocks currently tanking?..nothing...stocks go up when people buy and go down when people see, nothing more, nothing less.

When technical damage done to general mkt's, all stocks will tank, you can be sure of this.

BTW, we are currently at Defcon 3 right now...another few days pf heavy selling and we will progress to Defcon 4 and 5....

If we have entered a true long term bear, its still early in the game so need to panic ...the next bear will last 1-2 years.

Originally Posted by mact3333

I have no idea why people keep saying I have a secret market timing system that says this and that...I just look at the charts and see things and voice an opinion.

I have no need to prove anything...I just give my thoughts on the mkts, thats all.

I have given my opinion on here for years and if people see value in that then
they should pay attention and if they don't, just ignore.

Tonight is the trap I have been waiting for...mkt's tend to break when people are sleeping and they cannot do anything about it...I think tonight is one of those nights...while mom and pop sleep tonight, the mkt gods have the vaseline out and people will be hurting soon.

From technical standpoint, the floodgates about to open up soon..

How should mom and pop pick a true bottom(yes we are getting ahead of ourselves), just divide the highs on NFLX, FB, AAPL, AMZN, TSLA by at least 3....

All imho of course.

When I read the "The reason why I won't reveal my methods is because it has taken a long time to cultivate my methods," and you wouldn't give them out for free but they might be worth paying for, I assumed this meant you had secrets that were better than educated guesses.

[BayMoWe335]

The scary part is, we haven't even come close to panic levels. Market is still WAY up.

What puzzles me is how quality companies like AAPL are getting hit and trading at a multiple under 10 and lower than a company like MCD. Typically, good goes down with bad and proves it doesn't matter what it is, everything is going down.

I predict more pain as retail investors start to panic at the wrong time.

[BayMoWe335]

Originally Posted by mact3333

AAPL looks broken....hmmm.

I agree, but I think the stock is broken, not the company.

Flat to negative growth will happen soon (although not sure we are even there yet). When it does, they'll still be making $65b+ PROFIT per year. I don't see any smartphone dethroning AAPL in the next 8 quarters.

Earnings next Tuesday will be somewhat telling, but I'll be watching guidance too. IF they sell 80m phones, increase buyback, and increase dividend, I think we see $130 by March 31.

[ASBSECU E93]

Originally Posted by BayMoWe335

The scary part is, we haven't even come close to panic levels. Market is still WAY up.

What puzzles me is how quality companies like AAPL are getting hit and trading at a multiple under 10 and lower than a company like MCD. Typically, good goes down with bad and proves it doesn't matter what it is, everything is going down.

I predict more pain as retail investors start to panic at the wrong time.

Fear is predicated on saturation of the smart phone segment...but all they do is sell record numbers of phones...year over year.

Still - saturation is a concern, but I liken this to the new/used car segment. Just because you buy a car today - it does not mean that you'll never buy a car again.

Completely insane to think that people hold their phones longer than their cars...

don't get me started on the forward income stream from the ecosystem...

If I'm AAPL - I am buying back stock at very large increments now...

[mact3333]

1. I gave the warning 6 weeks ago that stocks on long side was dangerous and a top was coming

2. a lot of technical damage was done last night while people sleeping as always...technical damage leads to self fulfilling prophecy

3. hopefully some of you guys either unloaded your IRA's and etc and maybe your kids 529 6 weeks ago when I did

4. I called for 1200 SPX bottom weeks ago...granted it will take a year or so to get there but making the call now just to see if I am correct.


Yet some people on here think I am regurgitating the news???...hmmm...some accuse me of high frequency trading yet I haven't made any recent trades at all.

During mkt's like this, the first/best move is to be out of stocks in time...then you try to establish short positions when the set up is there that is goal number 2.

Trading on fundamentals and earnings works during a slow bull grind, but throwing darts work too in this phase...when technical breakdowns occur, it isn't due to earnings or revenues, its based on human emotion and psychology, there was elation and lack of fear and the mkt ran out of buyers, hence selling will take place and when certain levels break, it brings more sellers and than fear/anxiety...rinse and repeat through out time.

This thread isn't a pay site, no body owes anybody anything...make your prediction and calls and you can give your reasons why or not, up to you.

[mact3333]

Looking for SPX to touch 1818-20 today....timestamp 8:18am pst

[Haywood]

My company's stock went from $75 a share to under $45 in 3 months. So goddamn frustrated. Don't they know I want to do some mods??!

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by Haywood

My company's stock went from $75 a share to under $45 in 3 months. So goddamn frustrated. Don't they know I want to do some mods??!

Time to re-up on options.

[mact3333]

I am seeing temporary support at 1815-20.

oh we touched 1818 today alright!...

[BayMoWe335]

Originally Posted by ASBSECU E93

Fear is predicated on saturation of the smart phone segment...but all they do is sell record numbers of phones...year over year.

Still - saturation is a concern, but I liken this to the new/used car segment. Just because you buy a car today - it does not mean that you'll never buy a car again.

Completely insane to think that people hold their phones longer than their cars...

don't get me started on the forward income stream from the ecosystem...

If I'm AAPL - I am buying back stock at very large increments now...

Agree...but even if the US market is saturated for example, there IS still global growth potential and something like 50% of smartphone users in the US buy a new phone every 24 months like clockwork.

I'm actually an Android user, but will be returning to AAPL phones because even the highest end Android are utter shit from a stability perspective. I have a Note 4 and it's getting to be shit.

Even if iPhone growth flattens, Apple still prints money, Mac is growing better than any PC and you have all the potential for a new segment like Cars, TVs, or something else. I still don't think Apple Watch is a failure, I still think iPad is a huge business although slowing some, Apple Pay/Music have potential, and the partnership with IBM to get more into the enterprise has legs.

Part of the reason AAPL is falling is because they can't buyback any stock during the 30 days prior to earnings announcement. I suspect they'll increase buyback and dividend this year.

Just the buyback would grow EPS something like 7 - 10% y/y....that's with no growth on anything. Eventually, the fundamentals will have to matter on companies like AAPL. The story hasn't really changed other than people realizing iPhone can't grow forever (isn't that baked in yet at 8 times earnings?)

[PSUSMU]

You guys are crazy and immature for heckling mact3333 - he's done nothing but provide valuable contributions to this thread, and many accurate predictions throughout. I don't see anyone else timestamping their calls and following up with any accuracy.

[David70]

I agree that saying anything about what someone does for a living or anything personal is out of line. I also don't believe anyone is in a place to say they are better than someone else.

I do think it is fair to question his posts related to financial information when it is posted here, this is a discussion board. Anyone here is also welcome to ignore questions they don't want to answer.

[Myrder]

I'm sorry, my post was censored? For calling out someone's lack of grammar and syntax? lol.

[mact3333]

Well, hopefully now a certain poster won't act up anymore....

Im still long SPX from 1820 bottom...expect temporary slight rejection at 1895ish but this will be temporary imho...expect 1900 to be captured by monday...looking for bear rally to 1930ish before I unload longs...then looking for short opportunities.

[stressdoc]

Thumper's mom - If you can't say something nice, don't say nothing at all...
Applies to civil discourse on Bimmerpost. But of course the markets are fair game. And Audis, MBs...

[tc328]

Agree

We can predict whatever we wish...its a discussion board lol

[other_evolved]

Some important things to consider for the perma-bears in here.....

64% of years, historically, have experienced double digit declines.

Nearly 60% of the years with 10% draw downs have finished in the black at year end.

If we are entering a recession (we are likely NOT) then we have much further to go. If we are NOT entering a recession, we're likely getting to that testing bottom area.

I suppose this is all moot if an individual thinks we are on the brink of some financial Armageddon....

[nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn]

Originally Posted by mact3333

Im still long SPX from 1820 bottom...expect temporary slight rejection at 1895ish but this will be temporary imho...expect 1900 to be captured by monday...looking for bear rally to 1930ish before I unload longs...then looking for short opportunities.

It is this kind of stuff that makes me know you are completely full of it. You come on here say "Defcon" blah blah blah, bear markets, etc etc; yet when there is any movement in the opposite direction of your calls you completely flip and say you have a position in that direction.

Stop talking out of both sides of your mouth.

As an example. This is what he said YESTERDAY.

Originally Posted by mact3333

Tonight is the trap I have been waiting for...mkt's tend to break when people are sleeping and they cannot do anything about it...I think tonight is one of those nights...while mom and pop sleep tonight, the mkt gods have the vaseline out and people will be hurting soon.

From technical standpoint, the floodgates about to open up soon..

How should mom and pop pick a true bottom(yes we are getting ahead of ourselves), just divide the highs on NFLX, FB, AAPL, AMZN, TSLA by at least 3....

All imho of course.

[Inspired]

Market trading in range. Strong resistance at 210 and strong support at 180. Daily chart of the SPY looks bearish. Under the 20MA,50MA, 200MA. Weekly chart looks alright. Below the 20,50 but still above the 200.

[nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn]

Look at that. No response. Very telling....

[tc328]

Originally Posted by nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

Look at that. No response. Very telling....

Ok u win....