[XKxRome0ox]

Originally Posted by BMW F22

So many “cheap” stocks to buy. Which ones??

Put some money into VOO last week for long term.

all of them

i'm waiting like 2 more days to buy more SOFI
i had sold some shares so i'm waiting out the wash sale period
(i don't really understand it fully but i'm trying to avoid it since i've had many wash sales this year)

[e90335e36m3]

I bought lots of fruit today.

[BMW F22]

Originally Posted by e90335e36m3

I bought lots of fruit today.

Put some money into Apple as well.

[XKxRome0ox]

Originally Posted by e90335e36m3

I bought lots of fruit today.

i bought too many bananas ...

oh did you mean apples??

[e90335e36m3]

Originally Posted by XKxRome0ox

i bought too many bananas ...

oh did you mean apples??

I mean 1,100 apples, bought them in crates.

[Noneya]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

Let's say you have 1000 to put to work, buy 500 or so now and wait on the remainder in case it dips again. The risk: it bounces back fast and you only put half to work. Then you sit and wait for the next one

It needs to go below current price during the hypothetical future dip for that to be better than investing all now.

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by Noneya

It needs to go below current price during the hypothetical future dip for that to be better than investing all now.

Yes of course

[Noneya]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

Yes of course

Do you not see that's a very strong prediction? Estimate the likelihood of that and then reevaluate your suggested strategy.

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by Noneya

Do you not see that's a very strong prediction? Estimate the likelihood of that and then reevaluate your suggested strategy.

The likelihood that it goes down more than it did at a dip? Pretty much 50/50 in my eyes. Do you have research that shows after a dip a stock must go up forever over some time horizon? Bc that would be fascinating to me

Have you ever heard the expression dont try to catch a falling knife? Bc you will get cut. Buying dips before they bottom or even just after they turn up is effectively catching a falling knife… so a hedge against it going down (which is not at all unlikely) is to put some fraction of what you want in that stock or fund into it and watch for some short term. You could "miss the boat" but that's the downside you take to hedge the risk of it falling further.

But please tell me why I should always go all in on a stock after it bottoms and please help me define bottom by some metric, curve, or technical indicator.

[2one3E90]

How do youbsell this pen

[Noneya]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

The likelihood that it goes down more than it did at a dip? Pretty much 50/50 in my eyes. Do you have research that shows after a dip a stock must go up forever over some time horizon? Bc that would be fascinating to me

Have you ever heard the expression dont try to catch a falling knife? Bc you will get cut. Buying dips before they bottom or even just after they turn up is effectively catching a falling knife… so a hedge against it going down (which is not at all unlikely) is to put some fraction of what you want in that stock or fund into it and watch for some short term. You could "miss the boat" but that's the downside you take to hedge the risk of it falling further.

But please tell me why I should always go all in on a stock after it bottoms and please help me define bottom by some metric, curve, or technical indicator.

You entirely missed the point I was making. I don't know what the stocks are going to do, which is why I just put ALL the money I intend on investing into various indices the moment I can. Whereas if you decide to wait and not put it all in at ANY given time, that means that you're making a non-trivial prediction about where the market is going to go.

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by Noneya

You entirely missed the point I was making. I don't know what the stocks are going to do, which is why I just put ALL the money I intend on investing into various indices the moment I can. Whereas if you decide to wait and not put it all in at ANY given time, that means that you're making a non-trivial prediction about where the market is going to go.

Good for you.


And yes, I make non-trivial market predictions (also know as hedges against what I think could happen). The market is complex and unpredictable, basically all decisions even if "safe", "hedged", or "what the experts recommend" are non-trivial and consequential

[BMW F22]

Is Dogecoin a solid investment? Not sure about crypto in general but expecting Dogecoin to spike again.

[medphysdave]

Originally Posted by BMW F22

Is Dogecoin a solid investment? Not sure about crypto in general but expecting Dogecoin to spike again.

In my opinion it is not, but I do think it will go up. My limited experience would suggest that doge is better transactional currency. However, something needs to be done to stabilize it's price point for this to occur. No one once to buy doge with a dollar at . 40, only to have it be worth . 20 two days later. Crypto is interesting. Some are value storage and others are banking on utility. In general, the crypto market is in its infancy and only recently coming into public view. As more equity looks to get into this market I think it will lift the entire system. I'm not a fan of Bitcoin, but I believe it's going much much higher than it is today. I'm also not a fan of holding gold. In my view they are the same.

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by BMW F22

Is Dogecoin a solid investment? Not sure about crypto in general but expecting Dogecoin to spike again.

I cant say its a solid investment, but if you have some spare money to invest it could have legs in the future. Bitcoin is the better investment in the crypto space, because of its limited supply. Even that is questionable and cryptos are very volatile

[BMW F22]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

I cant say its a solid investment, but if you have some spare money to invest it could have legs in the future. Bitcoin is the better investment in the crypto space, because of its limited supply. Even that is questionable and cryptos are very volatile

That is something I don’t get: if it’s supposed to be currency of the future, why is it a limited amount? It doesn’t make much sense. That means not everyone can use it.

[BMW F22]

Originally Posted by medphysdave

In my opinion it is not, but I do think it will go up. My limited experience would suggest that doge is better transactional currency. However, something needs to be done to stabilize it's price point for this to occur. No one once to buy doge with a dollar at . 40, only to have it be worth . 20 two days later. Crypto is interesting. Some are value storage and others are banking on utility. In general, the crypto market is in its infancy and only recently coming into public view. As more equity looks to get into this market I think it will lift the entire system. I'm not a fan of Bitcoin, but I believe it's going much much higher than it is today. I'm also not a fan of holding gold. In my view they are the same.

I agree on volatility. Thought many times about jumping into Bitcoin when it dipped in the past year but always caught myself thinking “if I don’t believe in something I shouldn’t invest in it.” It has gone up after every dip though.

[antzcrashing]

What moves people making of late? I am moving new cash into my brokerage, anticipating a market mini flip-out due to inflation, rising rates, and debt ceiling concerns

[upstatedoc]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

What moves people making of late? I am moving new cash into my brokerage, anticipating a market mini flip-out due to inflation, rising rates, and debt ceiling concerns

I'm moving all my money into gold

[chassis]

Debt ceiling is a non-issue.

The 2/10 Treasury spread suggests inflation view is 1%. Most commodities are showing signs of having peaked. I see inflation risk as neutral to slight tailwind. To be clear, prices of goods are not going down. I see lower rates of inflation ahead.

Rising rates will be priced into the market, if they aren't already priced in.

I want to put new money in, but in a holding pattern. After year end earnings I will take a hard look at 1 or 2 problem children in my portfolio. Overall I like my holdings.

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by chassis

Debt ceiling is a non-issue.

The 2/10 Treasury spread suggests inflation view is 1%. Most commodities are showing signs of having peaked. I see inflation risk as neutral to slight tailwind. To be clear, prices of goods are not going down. I see lower rates of inflation ahead.

Rising rates will be priced into the market, if they aren't already priced in.

I want to put new money in, but in a holding pattern. After year end earnings I will take a hard look at 1 or 2 problem children in my portfolio. Overall I like my holdings.

So you are in a holding pattern waiting for a pullback, any thoughts on what the catalyst is then if not the things you said are neutral

[chassis]

Not waiting for a pullback, those are your words - agree?

I'm fully invested. New money, if any, would be small.

The catalyst will be unexpected - global conflict, Suez canal blockage, etc. Stuff that never happens.

The past 5 weekly closes have been in the green for the SP500. This hasn't happened at any point post-pandemic. The way forward will be up, with many bumps in the road, both large and small.