[2000cs]

In the news again as the jackpot apparently exceeds $1 billion, odds of winning the jackpot reported lower than 1:350,000,000. Anybody play?

I’ve been doing some math on the scratch-offs here in FL. I’ve found that older games (not being renewed), have an expected value that approaches the ticket price, especially if there are some top prizes still available (some data is on the state’s lottery web page, some has to be inferred statistically). One game appears to have a EV at about 96% of the ticket price, another is at 80% (they typically start at about 35% here). I may buy a few of these, if I can find them.

[kscarrol]

Bought a Megamillions ticket yesterday. $2 down the drain but what the hell, you can't win if you don't play. Don't dabble in scratch offs other than putting a few in the kids stocking at Christmas.

[iminhell1]

The house always wins.

[F30lolz]

I read a short story a long time ago about the lottery. No thanks, I’m not taking chances of getting stoned

[OkieSnuffBox]

Jackpot Odds

1:302,575,350 - Mega Millions

1:292,201,338 - Powerball

https://www.thelotter.com/powerball-mega-millions/

[rbryantaz]

Originally Posted by OkieSnuffBox

Jackpot Odds

1:302,575,350 - Mega Millions

1:292,201,338 - Powerball

https://www.thelotter.com/powerball-mega-millions/

"The lottery is a tax for people who can't do math..."

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by rbryantaz

"The lottery is a tax for people who can't do math..."

And an amusement for those who can, and the rich

[tcphoto]

I usually buy one ticket, it would be nice to get just a couple numbers correct.

[dreamingat30fps]

Originally Posted by OkieSnuffBox

Jackpot Odds

1:302,575,350 - Mega Millions

1:292,201,338 - Powerball

https://www.thelotter.com/powerball-mega-millions/

[bayarea328xit]

Originally Posted by rbryantaz

"The lottery is a tax for people who can't do math..."

You should spend some time calculating the expectation value of a $2 ticket for the upcoming draw.

[rbryantaz]

Originally Posted by bayarea328xit

You should spend some time calculating the expectation value of a $2 ticket for the upcoming draw.

I haven't calculated it but I have seen examples in the past.

It does go positive at a certain point but most of those calculations don't include taxes (or inflation on the multiple payment option)...

Have you checked the expected value after taxes?

-Rich

[OkieSnuffBox]

Originally Posted by rbryantaz

I haven't calculated it but I have seen examples in the past.

It does go positive at a certain point but most of those calculations don't include taxes (or inflation on the multiple payment option)...

Have you checked the expected value after taxes?

-Rich

From what I've ready the payout option receives a 5% increase every year, so in normal circumstances, that would be more than inflation.

[rbryantaz]

Originally Posted by OkieSnuffBox

From what I've ready the payout option receives a 5% increase every year, so in normal circumstances, that would be more than inflation.

Ok I stand corrected on the inflation.

[nyalpine90]

if i win i would buy an island and couple of ferries.

[RickFLM4]

I bought a ticket today so I’m in.

[Nuckle]

I'm in with 5 randoms for the next 3 draws.

[spazzyfry123]

I never play, but for those that do, do you have a "strategy?"

Meaning do you play the same numbers every single time, pick new random ones, just go with "Quick-Pick?"

[kscarrol]

When I play, which might be 3-4 times a year when the prize is large enough, I just go quick pick. Don't have set numbers, lucky numbers whet ever...

[Buug959]

lottery:[ lot-uh-ree ] n, a voluntary tax for the stupid.

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by spazzyfry123

I never play, but for those that do, do you have a "strategy?"

Meaning do you play the same numbers every single time, pick new random ones, just go with "Quick-Pick?"

Its been a while since I did any math on the PowerBall and MegaMillions, but my recollection is they are random and fully reset with each draw (with replacement in statistical terms), so it is unlikely any strategy will work more often than randomly. The exception would be making sure on multiple tickets for the same drawing, that you don’t buy all of the same numbers in the same order (duh).

I also think that the odds of winning don’t change when the jackpot increases, but the odds of sharing the prize (any of the prizes) increase because there are more players.

On taxes, a winner has some time before collecting - enough time to put the winning ticket into a trust and avoid or defer some taxes.

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by Buug959

lottery:[ lot-uh-ree ] n, a voluntary tax for the stupid.

And a high tax at that, generally they are designed to have the prizes be 50% of the ticket sales, sometimes a bit less. So it is effectively a 100% sales tax on the lottery ticket plus any income taxes if there is a win!

[bayarea328xit]

Originally Posted by rbryantaz

I haven't calculated it but I have seen examples in the past.

It does go positive at a certain point but most of those calculations don't include taxes (or inflation on the multiple payment option)...

Have you checked the expected value after taxes?

-Rich

Assuming your state does not collect taxes on in-state lottery winnings, the post-tax cash value is around $400M. If only one ticket wins the next draw, a $2 ticket has an expectation value of $1.33 -- still does not quite break even; however, it is clearly outside the typical "math tax" scenario.