[Dragzon]

Originally Posted by PackPride85

Care to elaborate in a white paper? Didn't know you had a phd in deep learning models and computer vision.

Didn't know you needed a PhD to chime in on this forum

[sahajesh]

Originally Posted by OSee

Tesla owner here. My wife's car is 'Level 2' in ever sense of that designation. The car loves dumping auto pilot anytime a semi-truck starts to encroach into your lane. Even on a wide open highway the sun will induce phantom braking. It miss-judges turns sometimes and goes way too fast into them (probably safe algorithm wise, but uncomfortable for humans). It's junk. Largely useless for anything other than a smarter cruise control.

I'm sorry BMW. But I just don't believe you. Tesla has had not only a big head start, but also access to MASSIVE amounts of REAL WORLD, REAL SCENARIO DATA. Not with test pilots or BMW employees in predictable environments...but with Joe Schmo on every street.

The only way I see BMW pulling off a true Level 3 is if they GEO restrict it's usage to specific cities/towns/regions that they've focused on. Even then you'd have to assume that BMWs software engineers are an order of magnitude more talented than Tesla's.

[Straight6Dave]

I have some experience here so I'm just going to chime in because it's fairly obvious that this post is really big on hype and fairly low on actual comprehension of what's behind this technology. I'm not a Phd student studying the latest in ML/AI but I have experience applying it to less complex problems so I can speak with some authority.

I'm not a skeptic, I just hate bs claims and Tesla right now is the king of bs claims. It's then perpetuated by people such as yourself with little more than a superficial understanding of what's happening and the hype train keeps moving.

I'll address your post piece by piece.

Originally Posted by kring

Tesla’s goal from the beginning (part of the master plan) was to become 10x safer than a human.. they have pretty much achieved that. They did have some other lofty goals like robotaxi and full autonomy and they will continue to work toward that - but again, 10x safer than a human - not PERFECT.

They're not the leader in autonomous driving, Waymo is. Waymo is actually running robotaxis and only in areas of the country that have exceptionally easy weather to handle and roads that aren't as complex. Tesla has no autonomous service on public roads thus it's really hard to say they're the leader.

Originally Posted by kring

Hardware wise, a tesla has everything it needs to be 10x safer than a human at driving, and can probably go well beyond that with further software improvements which they are doing as the mileage racks up from the ever growing fleet. A lot of people like to claim you need radar, sonar, lidar, 64 cameras.. but nope, they have all that is required for every possible legal driving scenario. Radar is inferior to cameras but inexperienced people keep thinking it’s needed because it sounds cool and others have it. Tesla ditched it because it added complexity and had zero benefits. They did say that if someone made a high-res and long distance radar they would implement it in future models, but that tech doesn’t exist yet. For some reason, the majority think that self-driving means “never ever ever makes a mistake or gets into an accident” that’s not at all accurate or reasonable to assume…. It will get in accidents, just not as often as humans.

This is really where the BS hits ridiculous levels. How can you possibly make such a claim as a layman? Where is the data to back this up? The companies that actually run Robotaxis use lidar, radar and vision. Human eyes have lots of advantages that cameras don't, higher resolution, better ability to see in extreme lighting conditions, and the ability to shift one's perspective by moving slightly or even something as simple as shielding your eyes from blinding sun. Cameras can't do most of that so you use other sensors to augment the gaps.

Telsa ditched radar because they couldn't source the components during the pandemic and told their customers it was a good thing. Now they're bringing it back and I can't wait to hear the BS story they feed their customers that they just told radar was useless 2 years ago.

https://electrek.co/2022/06/08/tesla...adar-confused/

Originally Posted by kring

From a development & AI training perspective, you need a base. there is more value gained from making a camera-only based system work and investing in maximizing existing hardware.. then down the road adding more tech would be major improvements for little effortÂ… itÂ’s the base that you need to build out first and that has to be camera. So Tesla is taking the right approach, but like most critics & skeptics - they will not believe it until well after they have seen it.

You use a Camera based AI because sensor fusion is hard. It's not "easier" and "little effort" to go from a camera based system to one that incorporates data from multiple sensors.

Also, it's unclear whether or not their existing training data will help them or not going forward. As sensors change, it's not obvious to me or anyone outside the industry whether or not you can re-use existing training data at all.


The bottom line is that companies like BMW and Mercedes are going to take financial liability if their systems screw up and I suspect Tesla never will. I know which system I'd trust more.

[heavyD^2]

Originally Posted by OSee

Tesla owner here. My wife's car is 'Level 2' in ever sense of that designation. The car loves dumping auto pilot anytime a semi-truck starts to encroach into your lane. Even on a wide open highway the sun will induce phantom braking. It miss-judges turns sometimes and goes way too fast into them (probably safe algorithm wise, but uncomfortable for humans). It's junk. Largely useless for anything other than a smarter cruise control.

I'm sorry BMW. But I just don't believe you. Tesla has had not only a big head start, but also access to MASSIVE amounts of REAL WORLD, REAL SCENARIO DATA. Not with test pilots or BMW employees in predictable environments...but with Joe Schmo on every street.

The only way I see BMW pulling off a true Level 3 is if they GEO restrict it's usage to specific cities/towns/regions that they've focused on. Even then you'd have to assume that BMWs software engineers are an order of magnitude more talented than Tesla's.

Tesla owner here. I have confidence that BMW will be able to pull this off much better than Tesla. Hell my wife's Genesis Highway Driving Assist is better than Autopilot. Tesla didn't do themselves any favors removing radar sensors as phantom braking increased after that. Also their software expertise is vastly overrated as their UI is junk as is most of the hardware on the car outside of the motors and batteries. All Tesla really has over other automakers is real world data they have collected but the reality is that they are behind in hardware as they still can't do a 360 view and they don't have radar. All Musk and Tesla have focused on in the past few years is shipping as many vehicles as possible while reducing the cost of the cars to increase profits. Autopilot is just like all of Elon's empty promises as he strings along millions of buyers making himself the richest man in the world in the process.

[Straight6Dave]

Originally Posted by heavyD^2

Tesla owner here. I have confidence that BMW will be able to pull this off much better than Tesla. Hell my wife's Genesis Highway Driving Assist is better than Autopilot. Tesla didn't do themselves any favors removing radar sensors as phantom braking increased after that. Also their software expertise is vastly overrated as their UI is junk as is most of the hardware on the car outside of the motors and batteries. All Tesla really has over other automakers is real world data they have collected but the reality is that they are behind in hardware as they still can't do a 360 view and they don't have radar. All Musk and Tesla have focused on in the past few years is shipping as many vehicles as possible while reducing the cost of the cars to increase profits. Autopilot is just like all of Elon's empty promises as he strings along millions of buyers making himself the richest man in the world in the process.

What Tesla does better than other automakers is take more calculated risks. They redesign faster and they ship faster because as a smaller automaker, there's a lot less risk in doing so. They should be applauded for that and it's one of the reasons they've grown as fast as they have. However, in some cases they've definitely gone too far and I personally think Autopilot/FSD falls into that category.

Not only have they changed directions multiple times and failed to hit promised delivery dates over and over while raising prices, the system that exists today isn't making nearly enough progress. Aside from the technical issues, I think the design of the system is flawed in general. A Level 2 system with a high rate of handing over control to a driver is just terrible user experience. The FAA has learned these lessons with major incidents like the crash of Air France Flight 447 and I'm afraid Tesla might end up learning too. You simply can't have a system that demands driver attention routinely while making the driving experience as disengaging as possible, human beings don't work like that. That's why systems that limit the operation to scenarios where it's unlikely the system will need the driver to engage are IMO much safer.

Again, when Tesla assumes financial liability for FSD I'll take it more seriously.

[Boostmeister]

I'm apparently missing something. BMW calls itself, "The Ultimate Driving Experience", yet folks are clamoring for a vehicle that nearly drives itself. I enjoy driving and lament the loss of the manual transmission. While I appreciate that most automatics can shift quicker, I still like the feeling of being in control. Can a self driving vehicle be safer, very likely. More fun? Hardly. Just my $0.02 and YMMV. Flame proof suit is donned.

[heavyD^2]

Originally Posted by Boostmeister

I'm apparently missing something. BMW calls itself, "The Ultimate Driving Experience", yet folks are clamoring for a vehicle that nearly drives itself. I enjoy driving and lament the loss of the manual transmission. While I appreciate that most automatics can shift quicker, I still like the feeling of being in control. Can a self driving vehicle be safer, very likely. More fun? Hardly. Just my $0.02 and YMMV. Flame proof suit is donned.

The reality is that the people purchasing bread and butter BMW vehicles are not interested in the ultimate driving experience. SUV's are the core of the business now and you have to cater to the audience that is buttering your bread. Even Porsche is depending highly on SUV sales to subsidize the ability to keep producing 911's. The industry moves fast and automakers have to keep pace or face extinction as major missteps can be catastrophic.

[apw2607]

Related … https://www.valeo.com/en/valeo-signs...tance-systems/

[OSee]

Originally Posted by sahajesh

Care to explain? Or should I just assume this is some BMW fanboy nonsense.

I’ll 100% guarantee that this is going to be premapped with geofenced roads. LiDAR and camera vision. 37mph limitation. In perfect sunny weather. Mercedes’ (I’ve used their ‘level 3’) and Waymo. Pretty much.

A whole lot less ambitious than what Tesla was trying to do (and failed) before they stripped their cars of the needed hardware as a cost cutting measure and still sell to suckers (we didn’t buy it for the self driving nonsense).

You fanboys would have people thinking that BMW disappeared into a cave and came out with the self driving Ten Commandments without anyone knowing about it. Because German engineers are famous for their software and machine learning prowess!

[sahajesh]

Originally Posted by OSee

Care to explain? Or should I just assume this is some BMW fanboy nonsense.

I’ll 100% guarantee that this is going to be premapped with geofenced roads. LiDAR and camera vision. 37mph limitation. In perfect sunny weather. Mercedes’ (I’ve used their ‘level 3’) and Waymo. Pretty much.

A whole lot less ambitious than what Tesla was trying to do (and failed) before they stripped their cars of the needed hardware as a cost cutting measure and still sell to suckers (we didn’t buy it for the self driving nonsense).

You fanboys would have people thinking that BMW disappeared into a cave and came out with the self driving Ten Commandments without anyone knowing about it. Because German engineers are famous for their software and machine learning prowess!

I agree with your comments that true autonomous will require an environment with lane markings and other vehicles etc defined via sensors and not just through visual detection etc.

The comment about Tesla software engineers being far ahead made me laugh. Tesla has repeatedly changed the narrative about autonomous to suit what it can do, with Musk being full of something or other.

Other posts have commented on the switch to/from camera, LIDAR etc. I just wish people would stop using Tesla as a shining light for autonomous and EVs in general. They have ONE advantage - they own the charging network and the car, so the integration is far better.

Take away that advantage and you get a sub-standard driving experience with only kids thinking they are great due to the gull-wing doors.

[jkap27]

Originally Posted by phoenixbmwlife

You all should know how long these things take to come to the US due to regulations. The fact that Tesla been doing it for years is quite a miracle.

the level 2 tesla has been doing for years is probably a heck of a lot easier to get approved in the US than level 3 and above. i believe 3 is completely autonomous driving but the driver has the ability and may need to intervene.

[Straight6Dave]

Originally Posted by jkap27

the level 2 tesla has been doing for years is probably a heck of a lot easier to get approved in the US than level 3 and above. i believe 3 is completely autonomous driving but the driver has the ability and may need to intervene.

The difference between levels 2 and 3 is that at level 3, the driver can perform secondary activities in lower risk scenarios. Mercedes is claiming that in their level 3 implementation (under 37 MPH) the driver is not required to actively monitor the road and is free to text and watch youtube to their hearts content. To date only Audi has actually shipped a level 3 car with Mercedes not far behind.

Personally, I think it's a lot more useful to have a car that can reliably automate the most boring parts of driving (traffic) than it is to have a car that can *mostly* automate everything but needs constant babysitting.

[mbanck]

Originally Posted by Boostmeister

I'm apparently missing something. BMW calls itself, "The Ultimate Driving Experience", yet folks are clamoring for a vehicle that nearly drives itself.

The general tagline is actual "Sheer Driving Pleasure" I think, "Ultimate Driving Machine/Experience" is mostly reserved for M cars I think.

And I guess we agree BMW also knows a 218i Active Tourer isn't the "Ultimate Driving Machine".

So as people wrote, BMW wants to make the boring tasks of driving less annoying, while still providing a great experience for spirited backroad driving (provided you choose an appropriate) model.

[mbanck]

Originally Posted by jkap27

the level 2 tesla has been doing for years is probably a heck of a lot easier to get approved in the US than level 3 and above. i believe 3 is completely autonomous driving but the driver has the ability and may need to intervene.

The main problem with Tesla Autopilot is (IMO) that it is technically and from a regulatory/legal point of view a level 2 system, while it got marketed as a level 3 system and lots of Tesla drivers seem to believe it is (see people sleeping or worse in their Tesla cars). The fact it tends to disengage directly before impact doesn't make things better.

So yeah I agree having a L3 system that works in controlled environments is more useful than having a L2 system you need to be hyperaware of all the time.

[NEfan508]

Raised in the 90's modern teck around me before I could shave but "auto pilot" driving is a pass for me

Basic Cruise control freaks me out never mind a 2.5 ton vehicle turning/maneuvering without my input.

[Sublime00]

Most people should have autonomous driving. Maybe then they can get the hell out of the left lane when not passing and drive like responsible adults.

But I wonder if the BMW autonomous system will still be a dickhead while on the road to reflect the personality of most BMW buyers. Lol. That would be hilarious.