[BayMoWe335]

Originally Posted by Vanity

The 5%+ premium that SPX is trading at over 50dma has, in the past, signalled a -10% average decline over a period of 2-6 weeks. Same with reaching 70 RSI.

I also have taken a look at TVIX, which follows the VIX, and it's just had a Short-term KST oscillator go bullish (registered on 18th, but KST signals at end of the week on a friday or end of the month). For those who might not know KST oscillators, they are longer oscillations compared to MACD and generally considered much more accurate buy/sell signals. It's duration lasts 2-6 weeks as well. Makes me think February is when this will go for a full correction of about 10% to low 1200's.

VIX set to pop to 26 levels, which as this point really is like 25%-30%. Should TVIX keep 2x gains, 50-60% rebound (potentially) for this month.

1365 looks a long ways away. They say IBM earnings held the DOW up today. I saw the impact and it contributed +60 points. Man... you know you have to run when 1 company is holding an entire index afloat.

Edit: Rally missing one thing: A Crowd.

Microsoft had a fantastic quarter and helped the DOW as well. Earnings have been pretty solid besides the GOOG miss, but that had run up a ton and expectations were too high. They still grew nicely.

I'll say it again...I'm not a technician and we are probably due for a 10% correction or so, but these companies are making money hand over fist. This is not 2008 as much as Eurozone problems make people think it is.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by BayMoWe335

Microsoft had a fantastic quarter and helped the DOW as well. Earnings have been pretty solid besides the GOOG miss, but that had run up a ton and expectations were too high. They still grew nicely.

I'll say it again...I'm not a technician and we are probably due for a 10% correction or so, but these companies are making money hand over fist. This is not 2008 as much as Eurozone problems make people think it is.

we are having the worst earnings season in ten years

[txz4]

Originally Posted by Vanity

we are having the worst earnings season in ten years

had a friend last week tell me "this is the best business climate ever" in his argument on how business is benefiting from the recession and the current business climate favoring business....

[r0wr]

No top pattern is being found yet but there could be an ascending triangle in the forming. Chances are that it would breakout on the upside

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...ing_triangle_c

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by r0wr

No top pattern is being found yet but there could be an ascending triangle in the forming. Chances are that it would breakout on the upside

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...ing_triangle_c

agreed i dont see a top yet


EDIt: sorry for the small font on the charts

[rallysport]

As usual the 3:00 o'clock ramp job comes in and puts the SP500 positive for the day

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by rallysport

As usual the 3:00 o'clock ramp job comes in and puts the SP500 positive for the day

yes, but ended up going back down now during after hours

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Trading range:
Upside: 1305 or 1316 (could see pullback at either of the two), but the highest I'd put this rally is at 1330. I really think the correction is due. Everything is way overbought, and tomorrow's rally is going to push the overbought status off the registered range Bullish signals coming in on shorts I follow, so, Can't time the markets dead on, so getting the correction in-or-around a week is good enough for me. *fingers crossed*.

Downside: 1250 or 1255. A lot of put options are camped there. Thats about an initial 4% pullback. Enough for a correction upwards, but we've been down as low at 1074 so it's not a stretch of the imagination by any means saying we'd definitely be back there again.

Said exactly 1 week ago we'd be in for resistance at 1316 (surprise, surprise, SPX closed dead at 1316.00) and this is an est. within 4-10 points away of my market top predictions of 1320-1330. Futures tonight agree with me, fingers crossed they keep up throughout tomorrow.

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

agreed i dont see a top yet
Attachment 634833

EDIt: sorry for the small font on the charts

I see a top.



If you look at the chart, we haven't been at overbought levels like this since July 2011. In fact, we're more overbought than July 2011, recording the most overbought status in recent markets to-date.

Likewise, we're in the same "it's all okay. Everyone relax. We can ignore the 350 million richest people in the world (Europe)" phase.



Every time VIX is this low, it takes some Redbull and flies like Icarus to the sun. And everyone must remember, everytime before a crash we've had, the market sentiment was usually Bullish. It's the only way you accomplish "fire-sell offs" as it's meant to be "by surprise". A Crash isn't a crash if everyone is expecting one. And it just so happens we're in extreme Bullish sentiment over all of WallStreet atm, just like how we were before Jul 2011, 08, and 09, and October 31st 2011.

[Vanity]

Look at AAPL go! +$32 in after-hours so far

That company has always been so impressive.



Edit:

Watch the SOTU address LIVE here:

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Look at AAPL go! +$32 in after-hours so far

That company has always been so impressive.



Edit:

Watch the SOTU address LIVE here:

+1 that company is honestly amazing, way to over priced for my budjet now haha I remember 3 years ago when they were <$70. as for the market reaching its top, i dont think so yet. it looks to be like IMO we had a slight pull back and are going to have another bull run before the market corrects itself. So, we should get our pay day hopefully soon

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

+1 that company is honestly amazing, way to over priced for my budjet now haha I remember 3 years ago when they were <$70. as for the market reaching its top, i dont think so yet. it looks to be like IMO we had a slight pull back and are going to have another bull run before the market corrects itself. So, we should get our pay day hopefully soon

Maybe. Maybe not. Personally I think after tomorrows FOMC meeting we are going to get volume back in the markets, as up until now there hasn't been a decisive move in volume to short or long the market with conviction before this meeting. As well for Friday, I really think the estimates on the GDP are not going to reach 3%.

Remember in Q4 in 2011 they were forecasting around 2-2.5% GDP, with 3% being unfavoured numbers by the market. They were projecting 3% on expectations of good holiday retail. We all know how ugly that played out.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Maybe. Maybe not. Personally I think after tomorrows FOMC meeting we are going to get volume back in the markets, as up until now there hasn't been a decisive move in volume to short or long the market with conviction before this meeting. As well for Friday, I really think the estimates on the GDP are not going to reach 3%.

Remember in Q4 in 2011 they were forecasting around 2-2.5% GDP, with 3% being unfavoured numbers by the market. They were projecting 3% on expectations of good holiday retail. We all know how ugly that played out.

THIS, the market is pretty much empty right now everyone is side lining it
Looks like all the technical analysis ive been learning payed off wish i wasnt right though and the markets corrected them selves today

and agreed regarding GDP...

Todays FOMC meeting in a nutshell:
http://blogs.wsj.com/davos/2012/01/2...ogle_news_blog

[Hisam135i]

[r0wr]

Everybody is on the sidelines waiting for something to happen...volume is scarce yet this rally continues. I can't tell if today is renewed bull strength or an exhaustion bar so we must wait and see until tomorrow. I still maintain that we are in for a bigger correction soon, but like I said earlier, never front run the market. Play what the chart shows you, not what you want to see.

T2112 is at a high again which means that in the next couple of days, we should see a pullback. Just my .02. GL all

[Vanity]

I think this might be the sobering moment in the markets we discussed earlier. Home sales fell 2.2% and home industry only grew 0.4% compared to 0.7% forecasts? Fed extends ZIRP to 2015? Economic growth is slowing, no one is going to get bullish about this. GDP tomorrow should hit the message home.

[kyleb350]

Originally Posted by Vanity

I think this might be the sobering moment in the markets we discussed earlier. Home sales fell 2.2% and home industry only grew 0.4% compared to 0.7% forecasts? Fed extends ZIRP to 2015? Economic growth is slowing, no one is going to get bullish about this. GDP tomorrow should hit the message home.

I saw those headlines, checked the Dow, and wondered why it was up today

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by kyleb350

I saw those headlines, checked the Dow, and wondered why it was up today

CAT had better than expected earnings (no surprise as analysts lowered expectations to make it seem like the housing sector was improving) and so CAT contributed about 27 points to the DOW today. I think DOW has a lot of catching down to do tomorrow

We hit 1333 on the spx today and then did a near 13 point pullback to the 1320 region, all this while EU markets rallied near 2%. Beginning of the end, dun dun dun!

Home Sales:


Home Sales since 1963:



It's not a pretty picture.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by kyleb350

I saw those headlines, checked the Dow, and wondered why it was up today

Originally Posted by Vanity

CAT had better than expected earnings (no surprise as analysts lowered expectations to make it seem like the housing sector was improving) and so CAT contributed about 27 points to the DOW today. I think DOW has a lot of catching down to do tomorrow

those these two comments literally made me LOL hahaha

Originally Posted by Vanity

We hit 1333 on the spx today and then did a near 13 point pullback to the 1320 region, all this while EU markets rallied near 2%. Beginning of the end, dun dun dun!

Home Sales:


Home Sales since 1963:



It's not a pretty picture.

It most definitely is not a pretty picture and the reality of it is going to show soon

[mact3333]

1330 SPX target finally hit...I am officially on the clock now!....

[r0wr]

Finally had a decent day for bears. We gapped up, created a new high and closed in red. Definitely can't be too quick to pull the trigger and say this is a top by any means, but I believe we are going to have another leg down.

Never front run

Also, take a look at this. Not that you guys didn't already know.

http://www.market-harmonics.com/free...xndescript.htm

[Vanity]

We are in for one-HELL-of-a-Monday. The usual 3:00pm pump routine didn't work today, first time the indexes have sold off into-the-close.

Not only that, but the sell-off brought with it the highest volume at the close I've seen all month. After-market currently shows it's going into short positions, but we won't know until it closes in 3.5 hours what the true momentum for Monday will be. All I know is, this is either make-or-break it time. The indexes haven't been able to break past 1330, and subsequently thereafter have failed consequtively to break 1320. Anyone else agree this is the ST or INT top? Being unable to break the 1360 resistance high on the spx really gives signs to the next major support level: 1220.

We shall see. Nonetheless it's going to be a very interesting week coming up!

[r0wr]

Vanity, I don't disagree with what you are saying. I believe that SPX shows major resistance at 1320 on the weekly. If we open up above 1320 Monday and manage to cruiser higher, my bearish bets are off.