BMW M5 Forum

Post Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
      02-20-2012, 10:16 PM   #2619
Hisam135i
Major
Hisam135i's Avatar
United_States
55
Rep
1,166
Posts

Drives: 335i
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Irvine, CA

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by txz4 View Post
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bob-ja...insights-offer

Everyone here should already know all of this, but who doesnt love hearing someone in a high place agree with you

Welcome!

Well as I was reading an article on Marketwatch regarding greece I came across this:
"With unemployment already running over 20%, the approved minimum-wage cuts of 22% and planned reduction of the public work force by a fifth by 2015 may leave Greece questioning the price of euro-area membership,” said Carl Paraskevas, director of sector economics at Lloyds TSB in London, in a note to clients."

For the Visual people like me:

Name:  greece copy.jpg
Views: 1536
Size:  62.0 KB

And well it got me curious to see the average unemployment currently in the Eurozone and I came across this :

Name:  unemployment in euro zone copy.jpg
Views: 1414
Size:  43.0 KB

Interesting how Greece has double the average unemployment in the eurozone now. With the austerity plan now passed I'd expect that number to rise since im sure there will be just a few government jobs are going to be cut in the spending cuts . I would also expect to see the unemployment to rise even further due to the tax hikes on all the business in Greece that havent already been burned down!

Greece is in a choke hold if they leave the eurozone they'll end up having to go back to the drachma and print a sh*t load of money in order to pay off their debts, which will lead to another Zimbabwe story of hyper-inflation. Where they will eventually have to end up using a foreign currency as Zimbabwe did. The Europe leaders wont allow this and well have a breaking new headline like this one that just appeared:

"Euro Zone Finance Ministers Reach Deal on Greek Package; Financing to Total 130 Billion Euros: Reuters"

Further kicking the can down the road..

Just a quick summary for those who are unaware of whats going on.
__________________
2008 Monaco Blue 335i | Terracotta | Premium | Auto | Comfort Access | Matte-black Grills | Carbon Fiber Splitters | 20% Tint | 1- point E9x Picture Game | Staggered 19' VMR V701 | Legal Disclaimer: My posts on this website cannot be held against me in any issues, such as warranty claims. |

Last edited by Hisam135i; 02-20-2012 at 10:45 PM..
Appreciate 0
      02-20-2012, 10:19 PM   #2620
txz4
Major
txz4's Avatar
60
Rep
1,097
Posts

Drives: 2006 M coupe
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: san antonio, texas

iTrader: (3)

^would hate to meet someone so unaware LOL
Appreciate 0
      02-20-2012, 10:42 PM   #2621
Hisam135i
Major
Hisam135i's Avatar
United_States
55
Rep
1,166
Posts

Drives: 335i
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Irvine, CA

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by txz4 View Post
^would hate to meet someone so unaware LOL
You sir would be amazed LMAO i ran into a few people at my finance club meeting on Friday and lets just say it helped inspire that post hahah
__________________
2008 Monaco Blue 335i | Terracotta | Premium | Auto | Comfort Access | Matte-black Grills | Carbon Fiber Splitters | 20% Tint | 1- point E9x Picture Game | Staggered 19' VMR V701 | Legal Disclaimer: My posts on this website cannot be held against me in any issues, such as warranty claims. |
Appreciate 0
      02-20-2012, 10:52 PM   #2622
txz4
Major
txz4's Avatar
60
Rep
1,097
Posts

Drives: 2006 M coupe
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: san antonio, texas

iTrader: (3)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hisam135i View Post
You sir would be amazed LMAO i ran into a few people at my finance club meeting on Friday and lets just say it helped inspire that post hahah
sarcasm fail on my part. Pretty shocking that someone in your finance club wouldn't know this stuff about Greece. My finance club was unbelievably competitive, it helps that it was run by an ex fund manager!

Best thing he taught the class, many times the news stories will write a title and change the "up" or "down" in the same title through the day as it made sense, as well as changing the reason in the title and leaving everything else. He really tried to drive the point that its not an exact science and that decisions need to be made on many different levels.
Appreciate 0
      02-20-2012, 11:01 PM   #2623
Hisam135i
Major
Hisam135i's Avatar
United_States
55
Rep
1,166
Posts

Drives: 335i
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Irvine, CA

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by txz4 View Post
sarcasm fail on my part. Pretty shocking that someone in your finance club wouldn't know this stuff about Greece. My finance club was unbelievably competitive, it helps that it was run by an ex fund manager!
Yeah the club is still relatively new so it isnt exactly the greatest , but with time people will start to pick up! I can imagine haha having an ex fund manager would be awesome, whats better than learning someone with real world experience
__________________
2008 Monaco Blue 335i | Terracotta | Premium | Auto | Comfort Access | Matte-black Grills | Carbon Fiber Splitters | 20% Tint | 1- point E9x Picture Game | Staggered 19' VMR V701 | Legal Disclaimer: My posts on this website cannot be held against me in any issues, such as warranty claims. |
Appreciate 0
      02-20-2012, 11:45 PM   #2624
Impervious
UNC FTW
Impervious's Avatar
Pakistan
28
Rep
741
Posts

Drives: Black Sapphire 135i
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: NC

iTrader: (0)

Greek debt deal reached.
Appreciate 0
      02-21-2012, 01:15 AM   #2625
txz4
Major
txz4's Avatar
60
Rep
1,097
Posts

Drives: 2006 M coupe
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: san antonio, texas

iTrader: (3)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Impervious View Post
Greek debt deal reached.
speak of the Devil, lets see what happens with the markets, and for that matter Greece itself.
Appreciate 0
      02-21-2012, 10:32 AM   #2626
mshanno1
First Lieutenant
37
Rep
358
Posts

Drives: 2007 M Coupe
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Atlanta, GA

iTrader: (1)

I know this is a technical analysis thread, but I had to pass this info along.

http://9to5mac.com/2012/02/20/china-...-on-march-9th/

Mobile subscribers in China by operator November 2011
Operator Subscribers 3G users
China Mobile 644 million 48 million
China Unicom 196 million 37 million
China Telecom 123 million 33 million
Total 963 million 118 million
Sources: China Mobile; China Unicom; China Telecom via: mobiThinking
Appreciate 0
      02-22-2012, 11:27 AM   #2627
mact3333
Captain
mact3333's Avatar
United_States
126
Rep
876
Posts

Drives: 16' YMB/Blk F82
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Portland Area

iTrader: (1)

Looking for sharp selloff on short term basis...but no longer bearish for IT and LT...we will get some bad news soon(Iran, Euro CDS probs, etc) and this will lead to sharp selloff...but selloff will be fast and sharp and most wont be positioned for it as it will happen fairly quickly.

But after selloff, odds now favor a run at the all time highs in Dow and SPX...dont see a significant selloff until summer...jmho.
Appreciate 0
      02-22-2012, 05:06 PM   #2628
Vanity
Private First Class
Vanity's Avatar
Canada
275
Rep
123
Posts

Drives: BMW E90 LCI
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: BC, Canada

iTrader: (0)

TVIX creation units suspended by Credit Suisse.

http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2012/...ion-units.html

Supply now a closed-system. Demand will drive the price now, we shall see what happens. Gold, Bonds, Equities and Oil all trading up atm. Strong sell-signal. Morgan Stanley released client statement speculating a double-digit drop in the indexes that correlates with past historic performance in such scenarios.


Mact, What levels are you looking at for the sell-off? I'm thinking a double-digit drop in the indexes. 1260 (7% pull back) back to 200 dma for a conservative est, but 10%+ drop is viable near low 1200's.
__________________
Appreciate 0
      02-22-2012, 07:15 PM   #2629
slamako
Metal cutter
slamako's Avatar
Canada
15
Rep
97
Posts

Drives: 135i 08 6MT Sed Red Met.
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Ontario Canada

iTrader: (0)

Hi Vanity...do you have a copy of the Morgan Stanley Client memo?

With Greece priced in, I'm guessing that news of Iran/Syria will trigger the sell-off.
My indicators have concurred that the market has been overbought...but it's strange to see VIX not behave the way I expected...
Appreciate 0
      02-23-2012, 04:52 AM   #2630
Vanity
Private First Class
Vanity's Avatar
Canada
275
Rep
123
Posts

Drives: BMW E90 LCI
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: BC, Canada

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by slamako View Post
Hi Vanity...do you have a copy of the Morgan Stanley Client memo?
Here it is:

From Financial times:

MS Graham Secker's 2012 outlook, and outlook for the next decade. End of the "Debt Super cycle"

Give it a good read. In it he believes what we see in 2012 will be the pattern we see for the next 10 years. His outlook is the end of the continuous debt-borrowing of the US. He compares it to the only applicable insistence in history where they occurred: 1930's US Depression, and the Japanese's 20 years of recession.

Quote:
"Looking back at 2011, there was a multitude of significant events to interest historians, financial or otherwise. For us, the most important development for investors has been confirmation that we have reached the end of the debt supercycle in developed markets. In Europe, we can support this hypothesis by noting the sharp deterioration in GDP growth and growing stress in the majority of government bond markets. While these signposts aren’t necessarily apparent in the US, the loss of its AAA rating over the summer is likely to be a precursor to further developments over the next couple of years. Of course, the ending of a debt supercycle – and the consequences for investors – play out over a number of years."
It also details this: A decline in living standards for the next decade.

Quote:
As consumers experience declining living standards for the first time in a decade, we can expect strikes, unrest and political instability.

For investors, the ramifications of this process are likely to be:

1) more social protests and economic dislocations, such as strike action;

2) increased political turnover as the electorate churns its politicians on a regular basis in the hope of protecting its living standards;

3) an increase in ‘populist’ policies from governments as they aim to align themselves with the wider electorate;

4) Higher taxes – Exhibit 19 shows how corporate tax rates have been falling for the past 30 years, while Exhibit 20 shows how the marginal top rate of US income tax rose from 30 per cent to 90 per cent in the decades post the Great Depression of the 1930s.


Here's also a copy of the client memo:

Quote:
From MS:

Breadth of positive returns across asset classes is rare …

Reading the January version of our global cross-asset strategy team’s excellent ‘Global In The Flow’, it struck us just how unusual performance trends were last month. While we’re all aware that we’ve just witnessed the best start to the year in equities since 1994, what was more interesting to us was the sheer breadth of positive performance across a wide array of assets. Effectively, the only major asset to fall in value in January was the dollar, and the only other laggards we could see were corn, coffee, coal and natural gas.

… and has often preceded equity market corrections

Unfortunately, the report in question hasn’t been in existence long enough for us to see just how rare such a breadth of positive performance is. So we have screened the past five years to identify periods of coinciding monthly price appreciation in the S&P, Treasuries, Oil and Gold. As shown in Exhibit 1, January 2012 was only the fifth month in the past five years when all four of these major asset classes have risen in unison. More interesting, on three of these four prior occasions that month proved to be a significant peak in equities and was followed by a substantial double-digit decline.

The traditional relationship between equities, treasuries and gold has broken down in recent months

While this analysis doesn’t guarantee that the market is about to suffer a reversal, it probably does reflect an abundance of liquidity plus rising investor optimism that this liquidity can lift asset prices across the board. Exhibit 3 and Exhibit 4 chart the longer-term performance of equities relative to USTs and to gold, and both clearly show a breakdown in the relationship in recent months. Of course, it is possible this gap can close through either falls in stocks or declines in the other assets, but we think it is unlikely this disconnect will continue for very long.

We see the breadth of recent strong performance as a warning sign

While we believe Exhibit 1 is a powerful argument to position for a market pullback, investors should note that this rule-of-thumb was less compelling in prior years. For example, although it gave correct sell signals in June 2000 and August 2002, it also gave a number of false sell signals during 2003 and at the end of 2004, as shown in Exhibit 2. We believe the macro environment going forward is more akin to the last five years than the preceding decade, and hence consider this signal is an important warning sign; however, we acknowledge that others may take a different view.


Speculators are bullish on equities, bonds and oil …

In seeking corroborating evidence to support the rule-of-thumb suggested by Exhibit 1, we have analysed CFTC positioning across similar asset classes. Exhibit 5 plots CFTC net speculative longs as a % of open interest for the NASDAQ (historically this metric has been a good predicator of European equity performance), US treasuries and the oil price. Within the chart the grey shading indicates areas when investors were net long all three asset classes based on a rolling 3-month moving average basis. To illustrate its efficacy for stocks Exhibit 6 then shows the S&P and MSCI Europe with the same periods again shaded grey.

… which has provided strong sell signals over the last decade

If anything, we think Exhibit 6 suggests the CFTC analysis is even more powerful than that shown in Exhibit 1, as there do not appear to be any false sell signals (although it was a little early at the tail end of 2010) even when we take the analysis back to 1999. Further, Exhibit 7 details some standard performance analysis around this data – for example, since July 1999 the average 6-month return from MSCI Europe has been 0% and the probability the market rises (hit ratio) is 54%. However, when we measure performance from periods when net longs were present across the three asset classes, we find the average subsequent 6-month return was -6.6% with a hit ratio of just 19%.
and the chart he was referencing to the Exhibits 2-7:




Not the best outlook, imo.
__________________
Appreciate 0
      02-23-2012, 10:58 AM   #2631
mact3333
Captain
mact3333's Avatar
United_States
126
Rep
876
Posts

Drives: 16' YMB/Blk F82
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Portland Area

iTrader: (1)

roughly 100 spx pts




Quote:
Originally Posted by Vanity View Post
TVIX creation units suspended by Credit Suisse.

http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2012/...ion-units.html

Supply now a closed-system. Demand will drive the price now, we shall see what happens. Gold, Bonds, Equities and Oil all trading up atm. Strong sell-signal. Morgan Stanley released client statement speculating a double-digit drop in the indexes that correlates with past historic performance in such scenarios.


Mact, What levels are you looking at for the sell-off? I'm thinking a double-digit drop in the indexes. 1260 (7% pull back) back to 200 dma for a conservative est, but 10%+ drop is viable near low 1200's.
Appreciate 0
      02-23-2012, 10:02 PM   #2632
r0wr
Lieutenant
646
Rep
569
Posts

Drives: Beater
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Los Angeles, CA

iTrader: (0)

Tread carefully and be careful at shorting at the first signs of a top. As you can see in the picture below, market tends to try once more for a second high before actually dropping down significantly.

Appreciate 0
      02-24-2012, 02:05 AM   #2633
Hisam135i
Major
Hisam135i's Avatar
United_States
55
Rep
1,166
Posts

Drives: 335i
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Irvine, CA

iTrader: (0)

Anyone watching the dow transportation averages as well as the Russell 2000? Looks like the break of the trend lines:

Name:  IWM copy.jpg
Views: 1929
Size:  62.5 KB

Name:  IYT copy.jpg
Views: 1976
Size:  64.8 KB
__________________
2008 Monaco Blue 335i | Terracotta | Premium | Auto | Comfort Access | Matte-black Grills | Carbon Fiber Splitters | 20% Tint | 1- point E9x Picture Game | Staggered 19' VMR V701 | Legal Disclaimer: My posts on this website cannot be held against me in any issues, such as warranty claims. |
Appreciate 0
      02-26-2012, 12:55 PM   #2634
stylinexpat
Major
stylinexpat's Avatar
430
Rep
1,427
Posts

Drives:
Join Date: Aug 2008

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
Looking for sharp selloff on short term basis...but no longer bearish for IT and LT...we will get some bad news soon(Iran, Euro CDS probs, etc) and this will lead to sharp selloff...but selloff will be fast and sharp and most wont be positioned for it as it will happen fairly quickly.

But after selloff, odds now favor a run at the all time highs in Dow and SPX...dont see a significant selloff until summer...jmho.

I had a shit load of $135 SPY puts on Friday and sold them before the market closed Was stupid for doing so and regret selling them now. On Friday there was a ton of March SPY puts being bought. The $135 March SPY puts were being bought up in huge numbers on Friday. I reckon that on Monday we see a good drop. I am guessing a 2% drop. Let's see what happens on Monday.
Appreciate 0
      02-26-2012, 03:35 PM   #2635
Vanity
Private First Class
Vanity's Avatar
Canada
275
Rep
123
Posts

Drives: BMW E90 LCI
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: BC, Canada

iTrader: (0)

ECRI came out last week, reaffirmed their recession call on the US. Their track record has been 100% so far. It was a 6 month call made in August. Meaning it's due March/April. They are calling for contraction in US growth.
__________________
Appreciate 0
      02-27-2012, 05:16 PM   #2636
r0wr
Lieutenant
646
Rep
569
Posts

Drives: Beater
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Los Angeles, CA

iTrader: (0)

We just formed a new high.. Is everybody still bearish or does the trend continue?
Appreciate 0
      02-27-2012, 10:06 PM   #2637
Vanity
Private First Class
Vanity's Avatar
Canada
275
Rep
123
Posts

Drives: BMW E90 LCI
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: BC, Canada

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by r0wr View Post
We just formed a new high.. Is everybody still bearish or does the trend continue?
Still bearish, probably more bearish now than usually.

It looks like the bulls are still running, and I'm thoroughly impressed by how much overshot has happened on their part. Never thought we'd be challenging these levels right off the October bottoms, so good part on them. However, I'm more bearish now as the longer and straighter we go in a line upwards, the deeper the fall down. It's sort of like falling from the first floor, except now we're on tenth.

Conservatively, I think 1250-1260 is where we're going to correct to in the ST. Thats just, again, a healthy correction to the 200dma. Any factor of bad news coming in, and I really think we'll be retesting some ugly lows. There are some out there who are calling for 1000 SPX by end of Q1 (April). Seems far-fetched right now saying those things from 13,000 DOW, but then again it was far-fetched imagining 13,000 DOW just a few months ago.
__________________
Appreciate 0
      02-28-2012, 02:17 AM   #2638
stylinexpat
Major
stylinexpat's Avatar
430
Rep
1,427
Posts

Drives:
Join Date: Aug 2008

iTrader: (0)

Market should have dropped but thanks to that good old invisible hand and Bernanke we managed to finish green. I lost money on my SPY puts today

Appreciate 0
      02-28-2012, 02:54 AM   #2639
r0wr
Lieutenant
646
Rep
569
Posts

Drives: Beater
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Los Angeles, CA

iTrader: (0)

I opened a small position of SPXU @ $10. A little front running.
Appreciate 0
      03-02-2012, 03:46 AM   #2640
Vanity
Private First Class
Vanity's Avatar
Canada
275
Rep
123
Posts

Drives: BMW E90 LCI
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: BC, Canada

iTrader: (0)

Someone purchased 24,000 SPX weekly puts with strike point at 1150. That's a 20% decline from current levels. The index needs to drop 10% to even make profit on this trade. The put expires next Friday, so, whichever institution just made that bet better hope for a huge 10% decline in 7 days, or lose that capital. Interesting to see that up there. Not sure what to make of such a put-play.
__________________
Appreciate 0
Post Reply

Bookmarks


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:17 AM.




m5:
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
1Addicts.com, BIMMERPOST.com, E90Post.com, F30Post.com, M3Post.com, ZPost.com, 5Post.com, 6Post.com, 7Post.com, XBimmers.com logo and trademark are properties of BIMMERPOST