[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Not sure if anyone took my advice on Thursday to sell. Bulls are going to lose 13,000 on DOW rather brutally on Monday it looks like. Futures are -142. This confirms my recent post 2 weeks ago of a blow off top formation.

I believe now we will be declining from here on out to exaggerate enough pain out of the markets for more liquidity injections. -22% for $400 Billion Twist. Any ideas for how much of a decline is needed to release $1T USD, especially now that unemployment has dropped to 8.2%

Did anyone sell on Thursday? I've been calling a blow-off top formation since March 16 on here. Spx futures hit a high of 1430, we are now 1370. DOW has lost 13,000 and broken through its 50 day moving average. I hope everyone realizes that because this rally had been so extended, there is no support for the Dow until the 200 dma. Sell high, buy low. That's the motto.

Edit: for all the bill advocates on CNBC saying he correction will only be 5-7% and that you should continue buying the dip, you'd be foolish. This decline now will be about "how much of a decline" is needed to get that $1 Trillion QE3. Without that, no one in this market has any reason to be pure-bullish, IMHO. I remain my April - September timeframe for the development of a large decline this year. We will go up, that is certain. But the trend is slowly not being your friend anymore.

For sure we will get a correction upwards after a 5 day sell off. How far we correct upwards, nobody knows, not even me. but my model is predicting a large decline.

Trade accordingly. Always do your own research too.

[r0wr]

One more leg up and down we go. Unless we create a new high. Just my .02

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by r0wr

One more leg up and down we go. Unless we create a new high. Just my .02

+1 this year is looking very similar to last

[E92TTKING]

TVIX made some good money for me
Bought 1000 shares at 8.15

Any other stocks worth buying tomorrow?

[r0wr]

does anyone like aapl? rsi is way oversold right now

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by r0wr

does anyone like aapl? rsi is way oversold right now

I wouldn't say it's way-oversold atm, but an RSI of 43 definitely has neutralized the stock for the time being. It's not a terribly "bad-buy" for the short-term, if what you're asking is if it's likely to correct upwards. I believe it will. However, I don't know how much return you'd be likely to squeeze out of that stock at $600. Maybe 10%?

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

I wouldn't say it's way-oversold atm, but an RSI of 43 definitely has neutralized the stock for the time being. It's not a terribly "bad-buy" for the short-term, if what you're asking is if it's likely to correct upwards. I believe it will. However, I don't know how much return you'd be likely to squeeze out of that stock at $600. Maybe 10%?

Agreed a stock has to move a lot at that price level cant really expect much

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

Agreed a stock has to move a lot at that price level cant really expect much

Down five days in a row, of course it's going to make a relatively small bounce back on the short. I already made my money from aapl today and I am officially out of my position and neutral with a bearish bias as I think this leg up will go back down and we'll see the downward momentum start to pick up again depending on how the markets move in the next couple days.

[Vanity]

Anyone have any ball-parks for how large they're expecting the correction this summer to be? (Unless you guys think this is a multi-decade bull run).

Personally? I believe a correction of -25% could be seen before more QE comes in. But if you look at today's valuations and risk/reward premiums relative to history, we're somewhere in the 30-50% over-valued category. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Shiller P/E is at 22. We usually have large downturns when valuations run this high (case in point, look to 2008, 2000, etc).

[r0wr]

I'm expecting at least 6.0% on SPY to around 1330.

[Hisam135i]

On the conservative side around 4-7% but on the realistic side I think we're going to see a 12-15% correction as we did last year

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

On the conservative side around 4-7% but on the realistic side I think we're going to see a 12-15% correction as we did last year

Last year was a 22% correction

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Last year was a 22% correction

Interestingly, Last year the distance between the top of 1363 and the 200DMA was about 11% and this years distance between the top of 1419 and the 200 DMA at the time was also about 11%.AKA this year looks a lot like last year and would expect close to the same correction of about 22%.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

Interestingly, Last year the distance between the top of 1363 and the 200DMA was about 11% and this years distance between the top of 1419 and the 200 DMA at the time was also about 11%.AKA this year looks a lot like last year and would expect close to the same correction of about 22%.

Attachment 677591

Yes! With this predicate in mind, remember that last year the markets sold-off 22% and only got Operation Twist (which, imo, wasn't enough to completely pick up the markets), and then LTRO's coming in December to push us farther up. They had been expecting QE3 last year as well.

This year, I'm more inclined to think that when we do sell-off that we might be pushing -25% or more to get QE3 out of the box, as I doubt the ECB will be coming in with anymore LTRO's (unless they must choose between the lesser of two evils: inflation or default).

Nonetheless, I have no crystal ball and cannot predict the future. But this year should be very interesting to play!

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Yes! With this predicate in mind, remember that last year the markets sold-off 22% and only got Operation Twist (which, imo, wasn't enough to completely pick up the markets), and then LTRO's coming in December to push us farther up. They had been expecting QE3 last year as well.

This year, I'm more inclined to think that when we do sell-off that we might be pushing -25% or more to get QE3 out of the box, as I doubt the ECB will be coming in with anymore LTRO's (unless they must choose between the lesser of two evils: inflation or default).

Nonetheless, I have no crystal ball and cannot predict the future. But this year should be very interesting to play!

This is definitely a sound argument in my opinion. As last year we saw the correction occur with the end of QE2, I think we will see the same result with the end of the twist. Hopefully, they will let the market unravel to a level low enough to get QE3 rolling and not intervine before with another twist or some other form of appreciating the market. The more they artificially stimulate the market though, in the long run, could lead to a nasty unravelling some day

Oh well guess we will just make money until then

[Vanity]

Goldman adds caution to risk appetite

Hey guys, here's an update to let you guys get a clue of where the big-boys are standing in the game relative to us.

Goldman Sachs’ daily value at risk – a measure of the trading risk assumed by the Wall Street bank – fell to the lowest level since before the financial crisis, surprising analysts and prompting questions over whether the bank is quietly tweaking the way it does business ahead of new rules and regulation.

...

VaR attempts to gauge how much the bank could stand to lose from its vast inventory of assets over a certain time period and at a certain confidence level. The measure reached notoriety during the financial crisis when it proved disastrously poor at forecasting extreme losses at big banks.

Goldman Sachs Value at Risk per annum:
2007-2008 = ~$158 Million, reduced risk exposure on it's portfolio before the crisis hit.
2009 = $218 Million, took on ~40% more risk appetite as we rebounded sharply upwards in 09.

Q1 2011 = $113 Million, before the Eurozone crisis
Q4 2011 = $135 Million, when markets bottomed, GS put more money
to work riding the wave up. About an additional 20% more of
their portfolio relative to year-start.

So where is Goldman putting it's money to work now?

Q1 2012 = $95 Million. That's $40 Million down from $135 Million, or about a depreciation of 30%. That's right. Goldman has just taken out 30% of their portfolio and in the VaR you can see this risk decreasing by 30% from 135M last quarter to 95M this quarter. Risk appetite at GS is at a 5-year low. Risk-assumed is even lower than just before the Financial Crisis of 08'

The lower VaR “points to less risk-taking in the first quarter,

...

some speculate that the lower VaR could indicate that Goldman is positioning for another rough year in markets. In the third quarter of last year – just before the eurozone debt crisis went into overdrive – the bank suggested to investors and analysts that it was already “de-risking.”

"When I see Goldman Sachs pull back risk that much that quickly, I get a little anxious about what could be around the corner because they’re typically pretty good at predicting that,” said Mr Schorr of Nomura.

This would make sense as for most of Q1, GS had been on the media convincing everyone to be invested in risk-equities. They need to sell their stocks to someone, right? Pass the bag along. Then in Q2 Goldman's official outlook turned bearish, citing expectations of the SP500 finishing around 1250 by year-end, instead of SPX 1500+ in Q1.

Now, this is my own opinion, I think the 4.5% sell-off we had in AAPL the other day was indication of the big-pros pulling out. Think about it, how much money has to leave AAPL for it to sell-off 4.5% when the markets were having an UP day? -4.5% is huge.

Food for thought.

[scorcherjf]

I'm not sure what method for VaR is being reported in that article but if it's one of the traditional ones (historical or simulated MC) then it's not all that unusual for their daily VaR to be considerably lower in Q1 2012 versus 2011 since overall volatility has been steadily decreasing. In other words, they could hold the same positions, yet the VaR would be lower now than 3 or 6 months previous.

Also, during 2008, volatility was at similar levels as they are today. I'm just looking at the VIX quickly here... so if you want to make some prediction on long-term VIX reversal then I might agree but the VaR metric is kind of weak imo.

[r0wr]

This is way I think we move down to 1330 very soon. I'm not sure about the bigger picture but I feel as if we will easily have a 15% correction. Just be ready to hop off the train when we go tumbling.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by r0wr

This is way I think we move down to 1330 very soon. I'm not sure about the bigger picture but I feel as if we will easily have a 15% correction. Just be ready to hop off the train when we go tumbling.

Looks like volume is narrowing and we broke out of the channel, these next few weeks are going to be interesting

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

Looks like volume is narrowing and we broke out of the channel, these next few weeks are going to be interesting

Honestly I don't even look at volume in this market and if I do, I take it with a grain of salt.

[shipill]

what do you guys think of buying AAPL @ 570 ?

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by shipill

what do you guys think of buying AAPL @ 570 ?

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/break...161517116.html