[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

You making more money than your professors yet?
Glad I went full short again, Japan's index is down -2% and Aus is down -1% too. After a powerful 60 handle rally on the SPX, everything is reset for another leg down. I'm thinking in the vicinity of a 50-100 sell off on the SPX. ST target anywhere from 1215-1265 from our current 1315.

Like I said before, if crash doesn't happen then we are going to rally up, and that's going to cause a much larger crash. The main body isn't even here yet because of this prop-up this week. But you can't hold back a Mama Bear.

I think I passed them up a while ago hahahaha
She will get here eventually slowly but surely

Originally Posted by r0wr

The pull back today confirmed my 2 leg theory and I believe that the first up leg is now over. we may see further pull backs tomorrow but I personally believe there will be another leg up. Realize that I personally think there will be two legs up but there is definitely a possibility of a third leg up just as well. I just think that it's going to be a short term rebound and eventually we will continue back downwards. In terms of the bigger picture, I still think we will break the 06/04 lows, which in my book implies that the intermediate-term is still short.

And this is the reason I believe slowly! I agree if there is going to be a large fall we will have a few days of re-consolidating in between (as we saw this week). Even if you pull up last years charts before the large drop we had Two legs up before the final fall (as you can see in the ellipse below)


PS: sorry for the shitty quality of the charts at my gfs house using her computer and it sucks -_-

[r0wr]

There is clearly a reversal bar today formed on the SPY daily chart just as well. I still think there's another leg up though. We've had 5 straight red Fridays just as well.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by r0wr

There is clearly a reversal bar today formed on the SPY daily chart just as well. I still think there's another leg up though. We've had 5 straight red Fridays just as well.

My current take is this rebound ended today after the intra-reversal. Estimating the SPX to fall from 1315 down to 1265-1215 region, then another leg up that would take us past 1340, with a target of 1340-1400 (possibly). All relative and will probably change as trading continues.

My boys, HiSam and Rowr, what are your thoughts

[Hisam135i]

What are your ideas on the data coming out of china tomorrow and the Spain talks that are occurring

[Hisam135i]

Looks like Spain got approved for up to 125 billion

[BayMoWe335]

Sorry bears.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by BayMoWe335

Sorry bears.

No need for the kind words. That $100B Euros is going be pulled straight out again from the bank runs happening in Spain. They've already taken out $97B Euros this year, now they're asking Germany for the bailout to cover that. Just watch for Greek Elections. If Syriza wins, the bank "jogs" currently happening around Europe are going to turn into full on Bank Sprints. A lot more money is needed.

Charts do look like they have an upside of about +25 on SPX, +250-300 on DOW, or about ~1.8%. Still full short.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

No need for the kind words. That $100B Euros is going be pulled straight out again from the bank runs happening in Spain. They've already taken out $97B Euros this year, now they're asking Germany for the bailout to cover that. Just watch for Greek Elections. If Syriza wins, the bank "jogs" currently happening around Europe are going to turn into full on Bank Sprints. A lot more money is needed.

Charts do look like they have an upside of about +25 on SPX, +250-300 on DOW, or about ~1.8%. Still full short.

I am also short and not to worried due to the fact my puts are out until the 7/21 and the fact that it hasn't been decided on how the money is going to be divided as vanity stated. Awkwardly the banks and government are broke and just taking a stab in the dark but government > banks Aka the money is going to go to the government first still leaving the banks uncovered. Greek elections are what's going to be deciding factor

[r0wr]

After doing more research, I believe that we'll have 2 more legs up, making it in total of three legs. If you watched the market closely, my call of a second leg coming are most definitely confirmed given futures. 100% measured move is 137.67. Whether or not we'll make it there, I don't know. I like the 61.8%mm at 135.23 better but futures is a ways ahead of that so we will see.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Vanity

My current take is this rebound ended today after the intra-reversal. Estimating the SPX to fall from 1315 down to 1265-1215 region, then another leg up that would take us past 1340, with a target of 1340-1400 (possibly). All relative and will probably change as trading continues.

Posted this on Thursday, and went full short that day to put my money where my mouth is. I had previously posted that this rebound was going to take us into the region of 1290-1342. Futures had hit 1346 and then quickly fell from there. The next ST target I have is 1265-1215. That's a 85-130 point drop from here. I suspect this leg down is going to give us a traceable bottom for a while, as I suspect panic selling is going to kick in now. Why now? Because this decline will be coming off a failed bailout, and bulls will finally realize why I've been saying for a while that bailouts have run their course and cannot be used to kick the can any further, whether the money is from the Fed, the ECB, or Lagarde's overly-ambitious/intrusive IMF.

The next tradable bottom has the potential to take us to 1340-1400, depending on how trading goes. I severely doubt we will make a new high this year.

Sorry Bulls.

[r0wr]

Looks like the 61.8%mm failed as did the 50%mm. Maybe there isn't another leg up? Vanity, what are you short? I have a statistic from a very reliable source that there is a 74% chance we will erase all gains that we've had since the most recent rebound and that it should be close.

Also, could you shoot me your e-mail? I'd like to pick your mind.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by r0wr

Looks like the 61.8%mm failed as did the 50%mm. Maybe there isn't another leg up? Vanity, what are you short? I have a statistic from a very reliable source that there is a 74% chance we will erase all gains that we've had since the most recent rebound and that it should be close.

Also, could you shoot me your e-mail? I'd like to pick your mind.

I play broad-based ETF's and rarely stock pick, unless it's from the bottom of something. But, imo, I like to use leverage so stocks dont return as much. Plus, ETF's are the only way to go during these volatile times as their asset allocations go up dramatically, making them very fluid to get-in-and-out-of. Stocks, you might get trapped in going to the bottom like in 08/09, with no buyers.

Right now I'm playing UVXY cause I love hedging with VIX futures. I made 16% today Managed to buy in UVXY full-portfolio () last week during the 3 days 60-handle rally on SPX, and got UVXY for half-off. Expecting to make to make up to a double in this next leg down with it.

And I agree with the erase of all gains, but I'd go further and say we start the next down leg (with panic selling) to 1265-1215. Then the potential for a ST tradeable bottom before the next leg up (potentially to 1350-1400).

My email has my full name and I keep that for business purposes, but feel free to shoot me a PM like the other members do.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

I play broad-based ETF's and rarely stock pick, unless it's from the bottom of something. But, imo, I like to use leverage so stocks dont return as much. Plus, ETF's are the only way to go during these volatile times as their asset allocations go up dramatically, making them very fluid to get-in-and-out-of. Stocks, you might get trapped in going to the bottom like in 08/09, with no buyers.

Right now I'm playing UVXY cause I love hedging with VIX futures. I made 16% today Managed to buy in UVXY full-portfolio () last week during the 3 days 60-handle rally on SPX, and got UVXY for half-off. Expecting to make to make up to a double in this next leg down with it.

And I agree with the erase of all gains, but I'd go further and say we start the next down leg (with panic selling) to 1265-1215. Then the potential for a ST tradeable bottom before the next leg up (potentially to 1350-1400).

My email has my full name and I keep that for business purposes, but feel free to shoot me a PM like the other members do.

Very nice I made 11% today

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by Vanity

My email has my full name and I keep that for business purposes, but feel free to shoot me a PM like the other members do.

I'm up around 13% just as well today. I can't PM until I have more post, lol.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

Very nice I made 11% today

After-hours pricing has it at 19% up now for today. I should just call it quits here, this is like 5 years of interest in a bank

Originally Posted by r0wr

I'm up around 13% just as well today. I can't PM until I have more post, lol.

Yeah, I've always wondered why you never had any posts. Did you make an account just to comment in this thread?

[BayMoWe335]

Sold AAPL at 585...pretty standard it would fade after the event was over and no iPhone 5. Did anyone really think it would be announced there?

85% cash currently.

Thought we'd get a rally, but I don't mind much. Give me lower prices so I can get in when the Dow is 6,000.

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by Vanity

After-hours pricing has it at 19% up now for today. I should just call it quits here, this is like 5 years of interest in a bank



Yeah, I've always wondered why you never had any posts. Did you make an account just to comment in this thread?

Well I've been a lurker for over 5 years of e90post/OT section but I decided to make an account to give my .02 cents and support for the bears

[r0wr]

Also, bearish engulfing on the daily today.. so we SHOULD have a green day tomorrow. Vanity, do you agree?

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by BayMoWe335

Sorry bears.

Originally Posted by r0wr

Also, bearish engulfing on the daily today.. so we SHOULD have a green day tomorrow. Vanity, do you agree?

Agreed, MACD indicating a rise tomorrow. But hey, thats just one indicator. Futures are also currently trading +68 on DOW, +6 On S&P, and +14 on Nasdaq.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by r0wr

Also, bearish engulfing on the daily today.. so we SHOULD have a green day tomorrow. Vanity, do you agree?

Didnt see this message till just now. It would appear that way, but I have no real playable uptrend on my outlooks so these are all just dead cat bounces to me. Dow is +24 right now and my short is +3%. That's one of the nice things about VIX and VIX Futures, the positive correlation sometimes with the indexes you can win on both up and down days.


Update: spoke too soon. Looks like bulls are trying to regain 1318-1320 support line. Sitting at 1319 right now, we would need a strong close above 1320 for this to be a strong reversal. Otherwise, I'm going to remain full short as I'm up 18% from yesterday and only down -4% so far, and my downside risk for going long would be ~ 100 handles on SPX.

Double Update (9:39am PST, 12:39 ET): Looks like today is indeed a dead cat bounce. Indexes are bouncing up to 1320 resistance and fell back down. A strong close around 1325 would have me re-evaluate the situation more. I doubt we have anything that will make us rally another 50 handles though. Also, 18 spanish banks downgraded again (does it ever stop? ), Italy/Spain's borrowing costs are going through the roof, and Greek elections are coming up. Still standing by in Full-Short mode. DOW is up +100 atm and my shorts are minus 1 cent. Good position, imo. Fun week.

What are you guys up to?

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Didnt see this message till just now. It would appear that way, but I have no real playable uptrend on my outlooks so these are all just dead cat bounces to me. Dow is +24 right now and my short is +3%. That's one of the nice things about VIX and VIX Futures, the positive correlation sometimes with the indexes you can win on both up and down days.


Update: spoke too soon. Looks like bulls are trying to regain 1318-1320 support line. Sitting at 1319 right now, we would need a strong close above 1320 for this to be a strong reversal. Otherwise, I'm going to remain full short as I'm up 18% from yesterday and only down -4% so far, and my downside risk for going long would be ~ 100 handles on SPX.

Double Update (9:39am PST, 12:39 ET): Looks like today is indeed a dead cat bounce. Indexes are bouncing up to 1320 resistance and fell back down. A strong close around 1325 would have me re-evaluate the situation more. I doubt we have anything that will make us rally another 50 handles though. Also, 18 spanish banks downgraded again (does it ever stop? ), Italy/Spain's borrowing costs are going through the roof, and Greek elections are coming up. Still standing by in Full-Short mode. DOW is up +100 atm and my shorts are minus 1 cent. Good position, imo. Fun week.

What are you guys up to?

I'm also taking today as a buy in position on some puts (which are already making money). What are your thoughts going into this weekend I don't plan on holding anything through it, the market could go either on Greece..

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

I'm also taking today as a buy in position on some puts (which are already making money). What are your thoughts going into this weekend I don't plan on holding anything through it, the market could go either on Greece..

We are definitely biased to the downside, but there's always 3 different scenarios on the table at all times. Right now I think if we break 1305, we're headed to 1265-1215 (maybe even 1200), and from there we can analyze whether or not we're looking at a big 2nd leg up, or a crash down. If we break 1335, we might be headed to 1420 (but no new high made, but certainly has the potential to be damn close imo. A mother of all kahuna crashes would be setup for a major short up here, in this scenario).

1305-1335 trading range for now imo, with a bias to the downside but anything is possible as always. We have expirations and dividends this Friday. Might be a push higher on that alone into the weekend, not necessarily to be interpreted as a speculation on Greek election results. Sam I hope you suck up all this information and become the most successful kid in your Undergrad