[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

We are definitely biased to the downside, but there's always 3 different scenarios on the table at all times. Right now I think if we break 1305, we're headed to 1265-1215 (maybe even 1200), and from there we can analyze whether or not we're looking at a big 2nd leg up, or a crash down. If we break 1335, we might be headed to 1420 (but no new high made, but certainly has the potential to be damn close imo. A mother of all kahuna crashes would be setup for a major short up here, in this scenario).

1305-1335 trading range for now imo, with a bias to the downside but anything is possible as always. We have expirations and dividends this Friday. Might be a push higher on that alone into the weekend, not necessarily to be interpreted as a speculation on Greek election results. Sam I hope you suck up all this information and become the most successful kid in your Undergrad

Thanks I appreciate that And I will definitely keep an eye out for any signals before this weekend (in FX markets)

[Hisam135i]

Looks like we are approaching 1st level of resistance at 1327, hopefully we will get a bounce down tomorrow!

[Vanity]

Was day trading today cause the first half had been boring action. Day traded enough to average in my position down, then Managed to short in +/- 10 points within the market top of the day around 9:30 am ET. Yeah! Really good day today

[scorcherjf]

Your good day might've just ended haha... anyway, elevator down for me now =)

Originally Posted by Vanity

Was day trading today cause the first half had been boring action. Day traded enough to average in my position down, then Managed to short in +/- 10 points within the market top of the day around 9:30 am ET. Yeah! Really good day today

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by scorcherjf

Your good day might've just ended haha... anyway, elevator down for me now =)

I wonder if this bank rumor before the elections is so large players can unload. Should be interesting to see if 1335 is broken strongly though.

[BayMoWe335]

Seems like there are more than a few in this thread that make money every day...I guess they just don't post when they lose. Understandable. Don't take this post the wrong way. I pretty much stick to posting postitive news about my own investments, but I don't pretend I know what's going to happen on a daily basis.

But seriously, I like reading and contributing to the thread, but there seems to be quite a bit of "See, I told you this would happen" going on. Veteran investors know it's hard to stay in this game, let alone beat the averages consistently.

Just curious...how much are people investing? $1,000 portfolio? $10,000? $100,000? $500,000, $1,000,000+?

I always find it interesting that people talk percentages. "I am up 80% on this or that." Well, if I were investing $1,000, I'd be up 80% some of the time because I'm taking more risk. Buying 500 shares of BZH to bet home builders will surprise doesn't really get me excited or show that you are a good investor. I've got a co-worker that's always talking about doubling his $200 investment. Big deal. Would you bet the same if it was $20,000? Or the best of all time, play money investors. This completely takes 90% of investing skill out of the equation...psychology.

I somehow doubt people buying leveraged ETFs are investing any significant money on such a speculative bet. If you make money, good for you...but scale matters.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by BayMoWe335

Seems like there are more than a few in this thread that make money every day...I guess they just don't post when they lose. Understandable. Don't take this post the wrong way. I pretty much stick to posting postitive news about my own investments, but I don't pretend I know what's going to happen on a daily basis.

But seriously, I like reading and contributing to the thread, but there seems to be quite a bit of "See, I told you this would happen" going on. Veteran investors know it's hard to stay in this game, let alone beat the averages consistently.

Just curious...how much are people investing? $1,000 portfolio? $10,000? $100,000? $500,000, $1,000,000+?

I always find it interesting that people talk percentages. "I am up 80% on this or that." Well, if I were investing $1,000, I'd be up 80% some of the time because I'm taking more risk. Buying 500 shares of BZH to bet home builders will surprise doesn't really get me excited or show that you are a good investor. I've got a co-worker that's always talking about doubling his $200 investment. Big deal. Would you bet the same if it was $20,000? Or the best of all time, play money investors. This completely takes 90% of investing skill out of the equation...psychology.

I somehow doubt people buying leveraged ETFs are investing any significant money on such a speculative bet. If you make money, good for you...but scale matters.

I'm not sure how anyone else here can not take this post the wrong way. You come in here only to devalue us, right? When we are wrong, it's clearly evident. But when we say the times we were right, we mention them, and we were right. This thread has been pretty accurate for the last little while, and we have been doing really good with our trades. Today was my first hit in about 2 months. As for investment size, I trade a minimum of 6 figures in my ETFs. So I put my money where my mouth is. Where is yours? I shared my portfolio size, care to share yours?

Investing differently with $20,000? Is that supposed to be large enough to change our investment strategies? I make and lose that in minutes. Today, I lost 5 figures for sleeping in (what a dumb mistake on my part today. I had been so tired all week I slept in). That is far, far, far, from making a large dent in my portfolio.

We talk percentages because this thread is built of a bunch of different traders. I get tons of PMs from other members who are just looking to start out with $5,000. Percentages is all this game is about anyways. It equalizes us all. I'm up 63% for the month. You?

If I took your post the wrong way, then disregard this response. But I'm tired of the random members that come in and knock this thread with "guess you were wrong" comments, when they don't even bother contributing. Realize we contribute our thoughts here free of charge, and other members and I are always welcoming new beginners and giving them direction. Posts like yours are so demeaning and pointless, IMO. Is isn't a portfolio comparison contest. This thread has been about, and always been about, analyzing the markets. No one cares how much you have trading; can you analyze the global events and price action? Cause that's all we care about here.

[BayMoWe335]

Originally Posted by Vanity

I'm not sure how anyone else here can not take this post the wrong way. You come in here only to devalue us, right? When we are wrong, it's clearly evident. But when we say the times we were right, we mention them, and we were right. This thread has been pretty accurate for the last little while, and we have been doing really good with our trades. Today was my first hit in about 2 months. As for investment size, I trade a minimum of 6 figures in my ETFs. So I put my money where my mouth is. Where is yours? I shared my portfolio size, care to share yours?

Investing differently with $20,000? Is that supposed to be large enough to change our investment strategies? I make and lose that in minutes. Today, I lost 5 figures for sleeping in (what a dumb mistake on my part today. I had been so tired all week I slept in). That is far, far, far, from making a large dent in my portfolio.

We talk percentages because this thread is built of a bunch of different traders. I get tons of PMs from other members who are just looking to start out with $5,000. Percentages is all this game is about anyways. It equalizes us all. I'm up 63% for the month. You?

If I took your post the wrong way, then disregard this response. But I'm tired of the random members that come in and knock this thread with "guess you were wrong" comments, when they don't even bother contributing. Realize we contribute our thoughts here free of charge, and other members and I are always welcoming new beginners and giving them direction. Posts like yours are so demeaning and pointless, IMO. Is isn't a portfolio comparison contest. This thread has been about, and always been about, analyzing the markets. No one cares how much you have trading; can you analyze the global events and price action? Cause that's all we care about here.

Really, no. I just know beating the market consistently is one of the hardest things in human history and wanted to make that point. Reading here, a lot seem to beat it.

If you are trading with a 7 figure portfolio, more power to you, but you are in the minority. Being up 63% is impressive too, but you and I both know that isn't sustainable, the norm, or anything close. This business requires to preserve capital and live another day. I simply don't take enough risk to be up nearly that much, honestly. I tip my hat to you for the month.

Yes, I have 6 figure trades as well. My point was (and you know this because of your portfolio) that the amount of capital invested is directly related to your risk tolerance...unless you are trading with someone else's money. Sure percentages are an equalizer, but they can be misleading if someone has a $1,000 portfolio versus a $1m.

Anyway, don't mind me. You are a smart guy and clearly are doing something right. Keep It up.

Maybe I'm just bitter I sold aapl too early or that I still have a significant long position in financials.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by BayMoWe335

Really, no. I just know beating the market consistently is one of the hardest things in human history and wanted to make that point. Reading here, a lot seem to beat it.

If you are trading with a 7 figure portfolio, more power to you, but you are in the minority. Being up 63% is impressive too, but you and I both know that isn't sustainable, the norm, or anything close. This business requires to preserve capital and live another day. I simply don't take enough risk to be up nearly that much, honestly. I tip my hat to you for the month.

Yes, I have 6 figure trades as well. My point was (and you know this because of your portfolio) that the amount of capital invested is directly related to your risk tolerance...unless you are trading with someone else's money. Sure percentages are an equalizer, but they can be misleading if someone has a $1,000 portfolio versus a $1m.

Anyway, don't mind me. You are a smart guy and clearly are doing something right. Keep It up.

Maybe I'm just bitter I sold aapl too early or that I still have a significant long position in financials.

I hear you brother. I'm bitter for sleeping in today, such a dumb mistake! I was down -12% after waking up, read your post, so grouchiness might have come through my post. I did understand your point, I just read it the wrong way. I thought you were discouraging small traders from trading/contributing, because that entrepeneurial spirit to learn finances is something I love fanning into flames.

Understandably, I'm frustrated at the moment trying to decipher this see-saw action from the last week. Hrmm. Right now it looks like the bulls may be making a push upwards to break 1335, and maybe the markets will rally to 1350-1380 before pulling back (like R0wr suggested). I almost thought we'd lost momentum after SPX futures hit 0.5% retracement level and got rejected from 1346 after the spanish bailout failure. Any ideas you have on direction? With a large investment portfolio yourself, you should contribute more!

I still think if we had to breakout to the upside, the spanish bailout and futures moves were the best time for it. Why re-try almost a week later? Possible backtest before fallout?

[Hisam135i]

I am just going to ignore the post by baymowe335, not worth my time..

And Vanity I agree, I am not seeing any signs of the market headed for another rally, If so should be interesting if we get past the 1334.31 level of resistance! Still not positive about holding anything through the weekend feels like a bit of a gamble, but we'll see I might open up a small position (puts).

By the way I started a small site to keep track of my trading thoughts (just for me really to have everything in one place). Anyway just started working on it this week check it out tradelocus.com

[BayMoWe335]

Originally Posted by Vanity

I hear you brother. I'm bitter for sleeping in today, such a dumb mistake! I was down -12% after waking up, read your post, so grouchiness might have come through my post. I did understand your point, I just read it the wrong way. I thought you were discouraging small traders from trading/contributing, because that entrepeneurial spirit to learn finances is something I love fanning into flames.

Understandably, I'm frustrated at the moment trying to decipher this see-saw action from the last week. Hrmm. Right now it looks like the bulls may be making a push upwards to break 1335, and maybe the markets will rally to 1350-1380 before pulling back (like R0wr suggested). I almost thought we'd lost momentum after SPX futures hit 0.5% retracement level and got rejected from 1346 after the spanish bailout failure. Any ideas you have on direction? With a large investment portfolio yourself, you should contribute more!

I still think if we had to breakout to the upside, the spanish bailout and futures moves were the best time for it. Why re-try almost a week later? Possible backtest before fallout?

Thanks for understanding. Obviously, my post was too abrasive. My bad. Definitely not here to start internet arguments or put people down.

I have a more Warren Buffett style (although I'm not able to move the market when I speak or have nearly enough money to buy Kraft and just enjoy the dividend). That said, I have no idea where the market goes ST. I do know 90% of the funds out there are bull funds, because the bulls will always win given enough time. I am a bull for this reason, but when the market seems tenuous, I get out. I don't short.

I mentioned my 85% cash position because this market seems too iffy at the moment. I am waiting for an opportunity to begin building positions. Having too much cash is also stressful, as you know. It pushes you to get into something too quickly at times, even if the time isn't right.

I encourage small investors to get started somewhere. We all did at some point.

[scorcherjf]

When you talk to anyone about their investments (online or in person) you generally only hear about their good trades. I was guilty of this behavior somewhat when I was younger and made riskier trades and was thrilled when they actually paid off. In hindsight it was essentially gambling. I had no idea how markets really worked (although I can't say I fully understand this even now but I'm trying!) and just really treated it like a casino. So yeah, I share some of your views about this thread and people talking about their investments in general but I also do find value in what people talk about since I can get a feel of general market sentiment from a wide variety of people. You can watch CNBC, talk with people in your office (I guess I'm lucky that I work in finance?), talk with friends, and also check online. As for me personally my trading is all model based so I guess reading this thread and talking to random people is quite useless for me but it's still fun to see what people are thinking nonetheless.

Anyway, I agree that the size of your portfolio does actually influence your trading behavior. Just comparing what I used to do to what I do now is starkly different because of the lessons learned and change in capital base. While I was somewhat of a "gambler" when I was younger, today everything is prototyped and tested in MATLAB/Java and similarly executed systematically. If it means anything to you my sharpe ratio is about 1.7 on a 32% 1 year return which I think is alright. It might be not so great for some but again, the capital base I feel is "sizeable" enough to not warrant riskier types of strategies. I guess everyone is different - size of their portfolio, types of strategies employed, etc. Long story short just soak up all the info you can and decide how to use it. =)

Originally Posted by BayMoWe335

Seems like there are more than a few in this thread that make money every day...I guess they just don't post when they lose. Understandable. Don't take this post the wrong way. I pretty much stick to posting postitive news about my own investments, but I don't pretend I know what's going to happen on a daily basis.

But seriously, I like reading and contributing to the thread, but there seems to be quite a bit of "See, I told you this would happen" going on. Veteran investors know it's hard to stay in this game, let alone beat the averages consistently.

Just curious...how much are people investing? $1,000 portfolio? $10,000? $100,000? $500,000, $1,000,000+?

I always find it interesting that people talk percentages. "I am up 80% on this or that." Well, if I were investing $1,000, I'd be up 80% some of the time because I'm taking more risk. Buying 500 shares of BZH to bet home builders will surprise doesn't really get me excited or show that you are a good investor. I've got a co-worker that's always talking about doubling his $200 investment. Big deal. Would you bet the same if it was $20,000? Or the best of all time, play money investors. This completely takes 90% of investing skill out of the equation...psychology.

I somehow doubt people buying leveraged ETFs are investing any significant money on such a speculative bet. If you make money, good for you...but scale matters.

[r0wr]

BayMoWe335 makes some interesting points but most have been addressed. Continuing on with the thread, is there an inverse H&S in the forming? Many say that there is, and on the 60 minute chart, it also sort of looks like a half staff, which leads me to believe that there is more up ahead. Vanity, where is the big drop we're looking for at? Is it still out of the question? Or is a Greece pull out of the Euro nearing?

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by r0wr

BayMoWe335 makes some interesting points but most have been addressed. Continuing on with the thread, is there an inverse H&S in the forming? Many say that there is, and on the 60 minute chart, it also sort of looks like a half staff, which leads me to believe that there is more up ahead. Vanity, where is the big drop we're looking for at? Is it still out of the question? Or is a Greece pull out of the Euro nearing?

One of the possible alternatives was a retracement of the entire decline from May 1st before crashing after (just like last year). I weighted this to be the less probable scenario after the large reversal from the Spanish bailout failure.

We have a 0.5 retracement level at 1341 that is within a stones throw right now. In the futures market on Monday we smashed through that on bailout hopes for Spain, reached 1346, then it reversed hard. Perhaps right now the equity markets are back testing this resistance level, and we sell off today and begin selling off next week. Theoretically, we could stop right here at the 0.5 level, since futures markets did that already.

The big drop down to 1265-1215 isn't off the table, that is definitely going to happen (look at the June rally upwards, compared to market internals. They are diverging, and market internals and breadth are deteriorating). What is important now is figuring out whether we top out here at 0.5 retracement (1341) or make a push higher to 0.618 (1358) or even the whole thing (but no new top).

I'm out of my shorts at the moment and just day trading dips here and there. What about your thoughts? As for the inverse H&S, I've also noticed a H&S develop on VIX. Which would favor more upside. But then treasuries are saying this rally is false. Time will tell. Waters are murky.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

One of the possible alternatives was a retracement of the entire decline from May 1st before crashing after (just like last year). I weighted this to be the less probable scenario after the large reversal from the Spanish bailout failure.

We have a 0.5 retracement level at 1341 that is within a stones throw right now. In the futures market on Monday we smashed through that on bailout hopes for Spain, reached 1346, then it reversed hard. Perhaps right now the equity markets are back testing this resistance level, and we sell off today and begin selling off next week. Theoretically, we could stop right here at the 0.5 level, since futures markets did that already.

The big drop down to 1265-1215 isn't off the table, that is definitely going to happen (look at the June rally upwards, compared to market internals. They are diverging, and market internals and breadth are deteriorating). What is important now is figuring out whether we top out here at 0.5 retracement (1341) or make a push higher to 0.618 (1358) or even the whole thing (but no new top).

I'm out of my shorts at the moment and just day trading dips here and there. What about your thoughts? As for the inverse H&S, I've also noticed a H&S develop on VIX. Which would favor more upside. But then treasuries are saying this rally is false. Time will tell. Waters are murky.

The waters are very murky indeed, everything for the most part is at crucial points. This should be a very interesting few weeks. I opened up a position of a few put options on BAC as it is approaching its 50 DMA on the daily chart and also approaching the upper limit of its channel. Lets see what happens from here

[Vanity]

I'm actually really hoping this market goes through the roof so I can pick back my shorts at dirt cheap levels! Sunday will be interesting

[Hisam135i]

Good article just posted on yahoo finance:

As Sunday's Greek elections approach, there's a rising consensus and concern that the plebiscite could prove to be a Lehman Brothers moment for Europe. That is to say, if the hard-left bailout-denouncing Syriza party wins, it could set off a cataclysm in the markets, a chain reaction that would set neighbors and then the whole world on fire.
So is it September 2008 all over again?
In one sense, it's an apt analogy. In the summer of 2008, the powers that be thought that, after a series of frustrating and partial bailouts of the financial sector, letting a large, leveraged entity default on its debts would have limited impact. But the Bush administration, the Federal Reserve and Wall Street leaders failed to view the situation in three dimensions.
For example, it's clear nobody in the Treasury Department thought that a Lehman bankruptcy filing would paralyze and threaten to kill the massive money-market fund industry, where companies and individuals keep their cash. (Lots of money-market funds, it turned out, held Lehman Brothers debt.) The poobahs sitting around the tables at the New York Federal Reserve didn't peer ahead and see that it might kill the commercial paper market, freeze trade finance and make it nigh impossible for solvent banks to issue new debt. If they had envisioned such results, they would have likely thought twice about letting Lehman go.

The Collateral Damage
The same certainly holds true for Europe today. There's very little evidence of three-dimensional thinking by top policy makers. The impact of a Greek default, or of a Greek exit from the Euro, wouldn't simply fall on Greece and the folks to whom the government owes money. It would fall on markets, companies and institutions, near and far, that are connected to Greece, in some cases tangentially. A Greek default would almost certainly cause Cyprus to seek a huge bailout, for example. Implode a warehouse sitting in an open field and you can be reasonably sure there will be little collateral damage. Knock over a skyscraper in the middle of a densely populated area, filled with buildings, infrastructure and utilities, and you have no idea what will happen. Greece, as small as it is, and as isolated as it has become, stands in the middle of a densely populated area.
As American policymakers did in 2008, European policymakers similarly tend to disregard the impact their actions — or lack of actions — will have on confidence and the psychology of the markets. If Greece officially decides to go bust, investors will conclude — rightly or wrongly — that all sorts of other institutions could do the same, and invest accordingly. That's how a crisis turns into a panic.
But there are some important differences between Lehman Brothers and Greece that we should keep in mind. The Lehman Brothers failure was a binary, decisive, quick action — when it closed for business on Friday, it was solvent; by Monday morning, it was bankrupt. That quick switch had massive, immediate consequences, and caused people to panic.

A Long, Slow Exit It Would Be
This Sunday's elections are unlikely to prove a similar event. Whatever the result, given Greece's parliamentary system, it will take several days to sort out who will run the government and which policies will prevail. It's even possible that no clear result will emerge, as was the case after the last election. Assume for the moment that the hard-left Syriza party wins a massive victory and its leaders Sunday night announce their intention to default on Greece's debt and exit the euro as soon as possible. (Keep in mind this outcome is one of many possibilities) That's a process that will take place over a series of weeks and months, not instantaneously. And even assuming that's the end result, there will be all sorts of feints, brinksmanship, negotiations and false solutions before then.
A second important difference between Lehman and Greece — aside from the fact that Lehman had more debt outstanding than Greece has — is the relative component of surprise. Lehman was thought to be a safe investment in the months before its collapse. In fact, its debt still carried in investment-grade rating when it went bust. That's part of what made the fallout so toxic. If Lehman, heretofore thought to be a safe harbor in a storm, wasn't safe, then who else was? But nobody has thought Greece is a safe place to invest for years. Even after the bailouts and the debt write-downs, Greece's bonds trade at highly distressed levels. How many conservative savers and companies do you know that have their money in funds that contain Greek bonds? To a large degree, markets and investors have been discounting and anticipating the failure of Greece's government to meet its financial obligations.
That's not to suggest that we should shrug off an election result that promises a Grexit sooner rather than later. Or that we should have great faith that a negative market reaction to the election results will finally spur Europe's policymakers to get their act together. Recent evidence suggests otherwise. And that highlights another important difference between the Lehman Brothers and Greece situations. When all hell broke loose in the U.S. and global markets in 2008, the American entities charged with stopping the panic — the White House, the Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve, and even Congress — proved they were able to take decisive panic-halting action in the space of a few weeks. Europe's political, financial and monetary leadership has displayed no such ability.

Daniel Gross is economics editor at Yahoo! Finance.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

Good article just posted on yahoo finance:

I was having a discussion about this earlier in the week with someone else. I believed that the risk associated with a Greek exit was contagion onto Spain and Italy, and not the actual exit of Greece itself that would be the cause for panic. The elections were supposed to, in the event Syriza won, push Spain and Italy off the cliff and cause panic.

But that's already happened, we've already dropped 1000 points on the Dow from Spain's rising yields, and now they've hit 7%. Check. What I'm concerned for next week is Italy, as I see that as the next reason to go down, not Greece elections. This week we got a prelude to what would happen with Italy, when it's bonds hit 6%. Remember when Spain did that? This is the contagion from Greece already at work.

The upside into the predictions currently is that markets will not be concerned about Italy's yields till early next week or sometime next week. But when that is realized, we will be headed down. They already tried to bailout Spain, and no avail. Try that with Italy and see how far you can go. It will be Italy's yields that bring us down, IMO, and not Greece elections.

How far up this thing goes, it could be as high as from now, 1342-1370. I'm going to keep adding into shorts all the way up. That's my strategy for now. I'm not even going to play the upside, as I and no one else I know and talk to, has a clear target for an upside. But the downside is very evidently coming soon.

Safe trading everyone!

[slamako]

Thanks for all the posts. I do appreciate the insight. I wish I have more to contribute, but I'm just still a rookie.

I just wanted to share a video that offers insight and some reality of what it takes to be successful in trading to other newbies like myself. I know she is an anomaly, and her gains grabs headlines, but I was more fascinated to hear about the hard work, discipline and how she learned from her past errors. Her demeanor was also pleasant as she doesn't fit the stereotypical role of a trader.

[Hisam135i]

Looks like futures hit resistance at 1347 and are pulling back now. I highly doubt Greece is going to be able to form a government before they go broke. I think Bill Gross said it best you don't fix an alcoholic by giving them more drinks. Also, if the Italian yields continue to rise as Spain's did, it should be a fun ride down!

[Vanity]

Dow is working off oversold levels at th open, but it appears that the trend of definitely down for today. It wouldn't be surprising to see this thing go into the positive first before running back down (if it does today). Keep that in mind for the beginners.

[richardbb85]

what books would you all recommend to learn about investing