[Vanity]

Originally Posted by slamako

Thanks for all the posts. I do appreciate the insight. I wish I have more to contribute, but I'm just still a rookie.

I just wanted to share a video that offers insight and some reality of what it takes to be successful in trading to other newbies like myself. I know she is an anomaly, and her gains grabs headlines, but I was more fascinated to hear about the hard work, discipline and how she learned from her past errors. Her demeanor was also pleasant as she doesn't fit the stereotypical role of a trader.

I liked the interview. She is very down to earth

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

Looks like futures hit resistance at 1347 and are pulling back now. I highly doubt Greece is going to be able to form a government before they go broke. I think Bill Gross said it best you don't fix an alcoholic by giving them more drinks. Also, if the Italian yields continue to rise as Spain's did, it should be a fun ride down!

I went full-short again today. Picked up some very cheap vix shorts. Glad I got out of the market with those on friday. Today was an amazing opportunity to pick them up for cheap. I'm betting no Twist or QE3. Yield curves are already too low on 10 year's. QE3 is inappropriate atm because we've risen 6% from the bottom of that 10% decline. QE3 after 4% down? No ty. I'm not going to play that bet. But we'll see how things work out.

Originally Posted by richardbb85

what books would you all recommend to learn about investing

I reccomend practicing in a virtual account. Experience is the most important thing. Fumble through your mistakes. Nothing makes you adapt and learn faster than learning how NOT to do "that again" and lose cash.

[mact3333]

Stay bullish guys...dont let the European disasters distract you...this mkt will grind out new highs soon enough...we will climb a wall of worry once again.

Guys, do yourselves a big favor...plot 1 and 2 year chart with SPX, then overlay the chart with the VIX...when VIX gets below 15(think int term top) you unwind your longs and start to accumulate some shorts...when VIX spikes above 25-ish you start to re-accumulate longs...when bull mkt finally peaks I believe the VIX will be near 10 level(think long term top)...if it ever reaches this level, you better run from your long positions as the bull is likely over.

The answer is likely in the charts!

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by mact3333

Stay bullish guys...dont let the European disasters distract you...this mkt will grind out new highs soon enough...we will climb a wall of worry once again.

Guys, do yourselves a big favor...plot 1 and 2 year chart with SPX, then overlay the chart with the VIX...when VIX gets below 15(think int term top) you unwind your longs and start to accumulate some shorts...when VIX spikes above 25-ish you start to re-accumulate longs...when bull mkt finally peaks I believe the VIX will be near 10 level(think long term top)...if it ever reaches this level, you better run from your long positions as the bull is likely over.

The answer is likely in the charts!

do you think we're going to make a higher high or a lower high? i'm looking at the chart on the short term and it seems as if there could be more up ahead and that i might have been wrong about going below 06/04 lows for the ST.

[Vanity]

Glad to see you back Mact. how's life been?

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Vanity

We are definitely biased to the downside, but there's always 3 different scenarios on the table at all times. Right now I think if we break 1305, we're headed to 1265-1215 (maybe even 1200), and from there we can analyze whether or not we're looking at a big 2nd leg up, or a crash down. If we break 1335, we might be headed to 1420 (but no new high made, but certainly has the potential to be damn close imo. A mother of all kahuna crashes would be setup for a major short up here, in this scenario).

1305-1335 trading range for now imo, with a bias to the downside but anything is possible as always. We have expirations and dividends this Friday. Might be a push higher on that alone into the weekend, not necessarily to be interpreted as a speculation on Greek election results. Sam I hope you suck up all this information and become the most successful kid in your Undergrad

Posted this June 12. I'm going to see what the market does around the 0.618 level. If it doesn't hold as resistance than the original thesis of a break above the 1305-1335 trading range leading to a potential run up to 1420 is on the table. That would also square with R0wrs original thesis, and also Mact.

It will be interesting to see if the fed does anything tomorrow, or if we just end up range bound between 1270-1360.

UPDATE: 2:38 pm ET.

We are getting a reversal here. We hit the 0.618 retracement level perfectly. The spx has since retraced downwards to, currently, 1357-1358. i went full short recently believing that this level could not be taken out without QE3 or a combination of Twist 2. But these two things are pretty much off the table in my mind. This is an election year. Bernanke needs SOLID downside in this economy otherwise his actions will be ambiguous or even synonymously political, instead of being purely economics-based. Considering how we are only 3-4% down for the year, and yields are already suppressed so low, it's a fat chance IMO. But the 0.618 is key. If it breaks, 100% retracement back to 1420 (potentially). As of now however, we are getting a back-down from those levels. Gold is also NOT confirming any monetary stimulus tomorrow.

Mini-Update: 3:00 pm ET. Also, intraday MACD is showing divergence and not confirming the move up.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Posted this June 12. I'm going to see what the market does around the 0.618 level. If it doesn't hold as resistance than the original thesis of a break above the 1305-1335 trading range leading to a potential run up to 1420 is on the table. That would also square with R0wrs original thesis, and also Mact.

It will be interesting to see if the fed does anything tomorrow, or if we just end up range bound between 1270-1360.

UPDATE: 2:38 pm ET.

We are getting a reversal here. We hit the 0.618 retracement level perfectly. The spx has since retraced downwards to, currently, 1357-1358. i went full short recently believing that this level could not be taken out without QE3 or a combination of Twist 2. But these two things are pretty much off the table in my mind. This is an election year. Bernanke needs SOLID downside in this economy otherwise his actions will be ambiguous or even synonymously political, instead of being purely economics-based. Considering how we are only 3-4% down for the year, and yields are already suppressed so low, it's a fat chance IMO. But the 0.618 is key. If it breaks, 100% retracement back to 1420 (potentially). As of now however, we are getting a back-down from those levels. Gold is also NOT confirming any monetary stimulus tomorrow.

Mini-Update: 3:00 pm ET. Also, intraday MACD is showing divergence and not confirming the move up.

I have also been looking at gold as a sign for stimulus coming. Currently, gold is down (meaning the dollar is strengthening), whenever we have a monetary stimulus we devalue the currency (weaken the dollar) by printing (or really dispersing) more dollars. So, gold dropping would indicate we are not going to receive a stimulus tomorrow. Also, The EUR/USD Just fell beneath its 20MA also signaling the dollar gaining strength. Going back to gold its MACD is also beginning to form a downtrend (on the daily chart approx 6 month).

SPX is also very overbought on stochastic on the daily chart.
EUR/USD is also very overbought on stochastic on the daily (also slowly beginning to form down trend in MACD).
SPX also is just oscillating around its 50MA on its 5 min chart and is right above its 50MA on its daily chart. I honestly would have expected a bigger jump after breaking the 50MA but we failed ti get passed 1364, which is a critical point IMO, for 1364 is level 3 resistance (highest/strongest level) using Pivot Points. I honestly do no believe this has much more room to go higher.

Mact, Vanity, Rowr what are your thoughts? I dont see anything from a technical stand point that should make us go much higher, am i missing something?

[rallysport]

Nowhere near as advanced as you guys are, but bought a small amount of SPXU towards the close today. I don't see them announcing a QE3 or if they do announce something I feel it wont be as much as the market wants.

[Hisam135i]

FOMC ended up extending operation twist until the end of the year (continuing what they already had in place)

[Vanity]

So far we've reversed from the 1362 line (from 1363 spx), and are about 15 points under that. We shall see if this is indeed a top. I would not rule out the possibility of a 2nd or 3rd attempt of the market to try and break this. But, note the wising bearish wedge forming. I suspect this might lead to a few volatile up/down days with decreasing trading ranges and then a break downwards (in this scenario).

[Uber V8]

How did you guys learn about stocks?

I wish I knew

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by FwdFtl

How did you guys learn about stocks?

I wish I knew

Practice and researching/reading

[r0wr]

NYMO too high, pull back very soon?

[Vanity]

If this is the decline now, of which I believe it is, this is going to come down VERY fast. 100-165 point decline from here. ST target is still 1265-1215 (maybe even just above 1200). As I said before, when we reach closer to these levels we will have a better idea of the other different scenarios (rebound, breakdown, or consolidation).

Adjust your portfolios accordingly. Align this with your own research as well.

[Vanity]

Two days ago we reversed from 1363 and we are now at 1329, or about -2.6%. What about the breaks over the other indexes (always look at the bigger picture)?

After topping 2 days ago:
Brazil down -6.3%.
Russia down -6.9%.
China down -7.3%.

Across a slew of all my charts, we are breaking through support channels left, right, and center. I would be very cautious here.

[r0wr]

Vanity, you think we fall from here, seriously?

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by r0wr

Vanity, you think we fall from here, seriously?

Your take?

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Your take?

I have no idea which is why I'm asking you . Just kidding. Today's pull back is significant. I agree that we broke major support levels (mine was 132.54 on the 60) But I don't know when the panic will start. I just graduated so I've been out of all my positions for a while, just opened a small position into UVXY. Hope I'm not late to the party.

[Hisam135i]

Hmm do you guys think were going to have a day of consolidation tomorrow or continue the downward path. Monday should be headed down after today though, the market literally just blew through all support

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by Hisam135i

Hmm do you guys think were going to have a day of consolidation tomorrow or continue the downward path. Monday should be headed down after today though, the market literally just blew through all support

[rallysport]

Very glad I shorted RIM yesterday, just wish I had shorted more

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by rallysport

Very glad I shorted RIM yesterday, just wish I had shorted more

Very cool that's a good trade, I've just been playing things on a daily basis.

[Hybrid For Life]

Anyone have any money in ZERO?