[mact3333]

AAPL anyone?...avg price 410.00....BBRY the only loser at 10.50....FB,DDD and TSLA still doing very well.

ROWR, have you capitulated yet on that AAPL short?

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by r0wr

Go search up a chart of what happens after FOMC meetings. I wouldn't be trying to go long here by any means.



These aren't your current positions are they? I thought you were out of most of these long ago.

Bought them all back...sold after first wave of rise...then bought all back before the last run up...you gotta stick with the winners during bull mkts

When the true bear comes, I will hold no long positions except inv etf's and actual short positions.

[F1Venom]

I think inv. ETF's would be the way to go over put or short call options. Since I believe the Russell will show the first signs of weakness, I'll go long its Inverse ETF which is SRTY.

[mact3333]

and down goes BBRY for the count.

[Titanium3er]

Alright stock market gurus, when is the bear market coming??

I've been hearing some doomsday pundits saying that the sky is going to fall as soon as the fed announces the beginning of the taper. Obviously none of us are fortunetellers, but do you guys in the know have an educated guess?

I've got individual stock accounts, but what I'm really concerned about is avoiding large losses in my 401k and kids 529's. They have the usual mix of mutual funds, some mm and bonds scattered in. My 401k is up something like 25% this year, so I'm not concerned about missing out on some gains if my timing is wrong, just looking to be as educated as possible before pulling the trigger.

So when is the bear market coming and where do I put my money? MM, bonds, stable value fund?

[Titanium3er]

Originally Posted by RandomHero

When is the pullback coming? Im not an expert on that. Id expect sometime in mid 2014. Bernanke seems to be very scared of a recession so I dont think well see a taper until our economy is completely out of the recession (mostly in regards to unemployment).

As far as your concern with your personal accounts, no one can tell you where to put your money without knowing more of your situation. There is a big difference between your kids being 3 years old or 15 years old. There is a big difference between you being 27 years old or 55 years old. Everyone has a different time horizon, risk tolerance, and a different set of financial goals.

If your 401k is up 25% this year, youre probably investing very aggressive (pure guess). The S&P 500 is only up about 21%. Bonds and emerging markets have gotten hammered this year so you probably have quite a bit of aggressive domestic growth and/or value funds in your portfolio.

I approach investing with the mindset of caring very little about returns. Its similar to going to Vegas. Everyone wants to tell you about how they won $5000 at the slots, but no one wants to tell you that they lost $10k the time before. Its all about what you walk away with at the end for me. You may be up 25% this year and down 15% next year, but your walk away point is when your kids go to college and/or when you retire. Im up 30% YTD and 79% over the past 104 weeks. At this point, those are just numbers. They're fun to talk about, but I cant touch that money (without penalty) for another 40 years so theyre insignificant. Im somewhat bearish over the next year so I changed my asset allocation to reflect a more conservative risk tolerance. However, I also upped my contribution percent at the same time. I may miss out a bit on another bullish run, but my account is growing at the rate I want it to.my ultimate goal.

Short answer: if anyone tells you where to put your money or how to invest it without knowing your situation, theyre damn fools. A 25 year old can generally afford to invest much more aggressively than an 80 year old taking retirement income. Consequently, their portfolios will look completely different.

Thanks for your input. I am in much the same boat as you regarding not being able to able to touch the money without penalty for just under 40 years. The 529 plans also have over 15 years to grow.

My main concern is the way "experts" have been talking lately, like the Feds withdrawal from the bond market is going to send the economy into calamitous free fall. There's no way to time the market perfectly, but like everyone I'm going to give it a shot.

It sounds like reallocating towards a less aggressive mix is in order.

[johanness]

Thoughts on where gold is headed?

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by mact3333

AAPL anyone?...avg price 410.00....BBRY the only loser at 10.50....FB,DDD and TSLA still doing very well.

ROWR, have you capitulated yet on that AAPL short?

I already told you last time I was out before it made its first initial run to 460. At that point, there wasn't too much downside for me to win on the short. If you look close, there's a double top @ aug 19 and sep 9. Still not too much downside even if it ends up going down. We shall see.

[nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn]

Originally Posted by r0wr

I already told you last time I was out before it made its first initial run to 460. At that point, there wasn't too much downside for me to win on the short. If you look close, there's a double top @ aug 19 and sep 9. Still not too much downside even if it ends up going down. We shall see.

I started coming back here a few months ago, and the only thing that keeps me coming back is this thread. It is hilarious. Throwing buzzwords and terms around. But I also know that people like to learn/be corrected.

First off, that double top is immensely weak at best. Basically, it just isn't a double top. Go back a few months and look for the clearly defined double bottom. That is what they look like. What you are seeing is news/event driven reactions, not trends. Don't skew your outlook by narrowing your time frame of reference. If you expand it to 2 years you will see something different. I'd post charts, but I'm not losing my job just to correct some dude on the internet.

If you want to chart and/or do technical analysis, then use as much data as you deem relevant. And since you or anyone in here doesn't seem like an intra-day swing trader, think in months and years rather than days and weeks.

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

I started coming back here a few months ago, and the only thing that keeps me coming back is this thread. It is hilarious. Throwing buzzwords and terms around. But I also know that people like to learn/be corrected.

First off, that double top is immensely weak at best. Basically, it just isn't a double top. Go back a few months and look for the clearly defined double bottom. That is what they look like. What you are seeing is news/event driven reactions, not trends. Don't skew your outlook by narrowing your time frame of reference. If you expand it to 2 years you will see something different. I'd post charts, but I'm not losing my job just to correct some dude on the internet.

If you want to chart and/or do technical analysis, then use as much data as you deem relevant. And since you or anyone in here doesn't seem like an intra-day swing trader, think in months and years rather than days and weeks.

I'm well aware of the statistics of said top. I noticed the dates because it's such a short time span, thus making it a lot more useless than if you were to see the same trend on wider time frame. Do I see the double bottom? Of course I do. There's a reason why I don't have a position. Just stating what I see on the short term. Gotta love people that talk the talk but don't like to contribute.

[F1Venom]

Any thoughts on the upcoming weeks? I think the markets will rally Monday and Tuesday but drop the remainder of the week.

[nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn]

Originally Posted by r0wr

I'm well aware of the statistics of said top. I noticed the dates because it's such a short time span, thus making it a lot more useless than if you were to see the same trend on wider time frame. Do I see the double bottom? Of course I do. There's a reason why I don't have a position. Just stating what I see on the short term. Gotta love people that talk the talk but don't like to contribute.

What's your reason for not having a position?

My job makes it so that I cannot contribute. I was trying to give you some guidance on forming more effective analyses.

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

What's your reason for not having a position?

My job makes it so that I cannot contribute. I was trying to give you some guidance on forming more effective analyses.

Because I don't trade purely off of TA. I also don't like AAPL and don't play the upside unless I see a short term swing in which case I'll make an option play. I had been bearish on Apple since 600 and I rode it all the way down to 300. Thanks for your insight though.

[Patrick303]

http://news.msn.com/us/tesla-stock-t...s-catches-fire

Tough break. Opportunity to buy on a pull-back??

[mact3333]

stock price has to deal with supply and demand of the stock and nothing else...fundamentals?...lol.

[F1Venom]

Originally Posted by mact3333

stock price has to deal with supply and demand of the stock and nothing else...fundamentals?...lol.

Do you think we'll see a dip in two or so weeks with the whole debt ceiling debacle? It looks like Congress can't come to an agreement on anything, so we might miss the deadline and see a sharp dip in indices.

[mact3333]

we're at IT inflection point...we either reverse back up right now or selloff significantly...if we dont reverse course then something has changed.

I have been hedged with TVIX for 1.5 weeks now...strange how TVIX wasnt selling off even when mkt going up for the day....hmmm.

[mact3333]

either way, the conservative types shouldnt even be in this mkt anymore...either we go up and make weaker new highs or the selloff has started....either way, its a traders mkt now and conservative types if they have had big gains over the past 5 years should be grateful and get to the sidelines imho.

[F1Venom]

I've rid of almost 90% of my long holdings and whatever I have left has a 3% stop. The market hasn't had a decent correction in a while, and the first one will be major.

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by F1Venom

I've rid of almost 90% of my long holdings and whatever I have left has a 3% stop. The market hasn't had a decent correction in a while, and the first one will be major.

Yup, when true selloff happens it will happen hard and fast...many wont have alot of time to react...by the time people realize what is going on, 1/3rd to 1/2 the selloff might be over already.

Trying to catch this last top probably not worth it.

Sold all my long last week. Only holding AAPL and TVIX now. And you cant hold TVIX too long due to time decay.

We should see a bounce within next day or two.

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by mact3333

Yup, when true selloff happens it will happen hard and fast...many wont have alot of time to react...by the time people realize what is going on, 1/3rd to 1/2 the selloff might be over already.

Trying to catch this last top probably not worth it.

Sold all my long last week. Only holding AAPL and TVIX now. And you cant hold TVIX too long due to time decay.

We should see a bounce within next day or two.

If you think there's gonna be a bounce within a day or two, why hold TVIX now?

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by r0wr

If you think there's gonna be a bounce within a day or two, why hold TVIX now?

Unloaded yesterday so not holding....did anyone say bounce few days ago?.....