[Tacoma]

Originally Posted by dscabra

I tend to agree with this statement, but a couple of key things need to happen first:

1. Charging times need to get much faster and become comparable to "stopping to get gas" along the road during a trip.

2. There needs to be a much more robust charging station infrastructure in place along the more desolate stretches of interstate highways across the U.S.

I don't think it will take too long to figure out item #1 as the demand drives innovation. Item #2 is a huge opportunity for an evolving industry. Making it convenient and comfortable to charge your EV is going to be a boom industry for not just the charging station aspect, but for retail, food, hotel, etc. to get together and make this work.

Early EVs didn't have near the range that would allow me to drive to work and back without charging, but today I could commute for a week on a single charge with some cars.

Both #1 and #2 are demand driven but I don't think you'll need as many charging stations as gas stations because the vast majority of cars will be charged at home. Many homes already have Level 2 charging through the 240v electric dryer outlet which they can extend outside or to the garage. Homes outside North America are already fully on 220/240v.

Where needed, such as for longer trips, they can use charging stations where you can find Level 3 chargers for fast charging or Level 4 chargers for even faster charging for more money (kind of like Regular and Premium gas). Within 10 years, they'll likely get L3 or L4 charging time down to not far it takes to fill a tank of gas. Governments demanding the EV change will likely offer some incentives initially to build the EV charging infrastructure. Wherever cars are parked, such as shopping centers or parking lot owners can also earn extra profits by offering charging while your car is parked. The city can do same by offering basic L2 charging with metered street parking.

In short, I don't think building EV infrastructure will be as much of a hurdle as you think. Where there's money to be made, they will come.

[TAZ007]

If EVs are the engines of the future, the charging infrastructure will need to be increased exponentially. Local drives with charging is not the issue; it is the long distance that is. Roll 300 miles then take a 1-hr recharge break to go another 300. That vs a 15 minute fuel fill up for about 350 mile range.

Will it get there, yes; but not with my tax dollars.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by TAZ007

Will it get there, yes; but not with my tax dollars.

Well, if you live in Travis County, then you're already paying for Tesla's tax credits ... beyond that, it's great you have a military-secured oil supply & government built & maintained freeways secured with your parent's & grandparent's tax dollars ... or you'd be walking everywhere!

Maybe the better news is, most of the newer batteries can be charged to 80% in ~15min and that'll only improve ... in 3-5 years it'll be about 5 min or faster.

The number of companies working on a reliable, safe fast charging battery is stunning.

[synchronicityii]

Originally Posted by Germanauto

Even here in California, charging infrastructure is a joke. You'll see a handful of Tesla chargers are some grocery stores that's it. I'm sure Electrify America chargers exist, but I have yet to spot one in the wild. In its current state, all this legislation to ban ICE is clearly far-fetched and not feasible.

There are currently 247 Supercharger stations operational in California. I don't know the precise number of stalls, but randomly selecting 100 of the stations and doing a manual count gets to an average of 13.4 stalls/per station, implying a total count of 3,310 stalls in the state.

Keep in mind that as currently designed, the major goal of the Supercharger network is, in Tesla's words, to "keep you charged when you're away from home". With that in mind, to talk about Superchargers (or the lack thereof) at grocery stores is to miss the point, which is to allow drivers to charge in cases where the out-and-back driving distance is greater than the practical range of the car.

Per the 2018 National Household Travel Survey, only 4.9% of vehicle trips are longer than 30 miles. So for people who can charge up at their residence, and always leave the house fully charged, Tesla's Supercharger network strategy makes sense. As a current Model Y owner, it was a huge selling point for me.

Now, if you want to have a discussion about charging infrastructure for non-homeowners, or why the major legacy auto manufacturers seem content to allow third parties to build out charging networks—despite having seen Tesla's success in building its own—that's another matter.

[Germanauto]

Originally Posted by synchronicityii

Now, if you want to have a discussion about charging infrastructure for non-homeowners, or why the major legacy auto manufacturers seem content to allow third parties to build out charging networks—despite having seen Tesla's success in building its own—that's another matter.

This is exactly what i'm talking about. Tesla's network has mostly been sufficient for its owners, but even then I know several people who've had a pain of a time charging at crowded stations, including on the drive from LA to/from the Bay. For non-Teslas, charging infrastructure leaves much to be desired.

[tracer bullet]

I predict much longer. EV's are the future but haven't taken over yet. I give it a decade for them to even hit 50%, the rest being hybrids and ICE's. It'll be a while before the cheapest cars have become EV's and even then it'll be another 10 years for the stations to start to plummet and 10 more before they become like horse supplies are today. So... 2050, 2060.

Obviously everyone's got an opinion.

[TAZ007]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

The number of companies working on a reliable, safe fast charging battery is stunning.

I'll agree that batteries have come a long way over the past 30 years, but they are not there yet. When they get there in the next 20 years, we will still have thermal power plants to provide said charging because renewables alone cannot handle the current demand let alone the future of all EVs.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by tracer bullet

I predict much longer. EV's are the future but haven't taken over yet. I give it a decade for them to even hit 50%, the rest being hybrids and ICE's. It'll be a while before the cheapest cars have become EV's and even then it'll be another 10 years for the stations to start to plummet and 10 more before they become like horse supplies are today. So... 2050, 2060.

Obviously everyone's got an opinion.

The ICE supply chains are already starting to collapse, see chip shortages (and no, that's not just covid; it's part of the auto industry's self-imposed JIT bomb)

Let's say you own a company that makes gas tanks for ICE cars ... what would you be doing right now: planning on business as usual for the next decade or planning to do something else before your orders collapse?

Ok, now, what % of parts do you think ICE auto makers actually make?

Whatever that vendor % is, that's what's starting to collaspe.

And then the oil, gas, & refinery supply chain will be a whole other problem ...


ICE is about to get REALLY inconvenient ... not an opinion, it's already happening.

[PackPride85]

Good luck living in an apartment building with all EVs. It will be a long time before you see their lots/garages have enough charging stations for every car.

[tracer bullet]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

ICE is about to get REALLY inconvenient ... not an opinion, it's already happening.

I follow you and agree it can and will happen, and is even starting today. I'm just talking about how long it'll be before gas stations disappear enough to a point it becomes a chore to find one.

I remember the demise of film for cameras, it took 10 - 15 years after the first decent digitals came out, and everyone was ready to ditch that stuff. We won't see EV's take over nearly as fast as digital cameras did (cars = much higher price, lower availability, little difference in convenience factor) nor will everyone so readily give up their existing ICE cars that have already been manufactured and paid for.

In addition to that, a recent local article described that since Covid hit, gas sales are obviously down but purchases from the convenience stores inside actually went up. Gas stations don't only sell gas, and will continue to exist for quite some time even if their sales of gas go down and the # of pumps drop.

If you want to say owning an ICE car will become inconvenient, we'll agree all day long. And it'll be a steady thing too, sure. And the number of gas stations as well will of course go down. I just opine a longer timeline for it than I think you do.

[grannyknot]

They are never taking away my Z4.
Yes electric is where it is going, but, where is all this new supply coming from?
We've dammed up every river on the planet, in fact those rivers are starting to dry up.
Are we going to start burning more fossil fuel to create more eco friendly electricity?
Wind isn't going to cut it, solar might but they need a massive break through in efficiency.
Unfortunately a lot of people just want to believe that electricity comes from the wall.

[laidback93]

Originally Posted by grannyknot

They are never taking away my Z4.
Yes electric is where it is going, but, where is all this new supply coming from?
We've dammed up every river on the planet, in fact those rivers are starting to dry up.
Are we going to start burning more fossil fuel to create more eco friendly electricity?
Wind isn't going to cut it, solar might but they need a massive break through in efficiency.
Unfortunately a lot of people just want to believe that electricity comes from the wall.

This is exactly where my mind goes whenever someone brings up the EV subject. Where is all that extra power going to come from? We certainly know the power grid isn’t up to snuff. Look at what happened in Texas.

[synchronicityii]

Originally Posted by TAZ007

Will it get there, yes; but not with my tax dollars.

The IMF estimates global fossil fuel subsidies as $5.9 trillion in 2020. In the US, their estimate of total explicit and implicit fossil fuel subsidies was $662 billion, or $2,006 per capita. Just so we're all on the same page that the government is a) using our tax dollars to subsidize fossil fuels and b) avoiding pricing fossil fuels in accordance with their negative externalities.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by grannyknot

Yes electric is where it is going, but, where is all this new supply coming from?

Originally Posted by laidback93

This is exactly where my mind goes whenever someone brings up the EV subject. Where is all that extra power going to come from? We certainly know the power grid isn’t up to snuff. Look at what happened in Texas.

The power generation problem is pretty simple: no *consistent, reliable, & dependable* electricity demand to cost-justify new generation capacity - which requires capital intensive new plant construction, as in billions $$ of capital. Ever try to get a corporate project funded? Then you know what I"m talking about ...

EXAMPLE
Let's say you own a sportsball foam-finger shop then, unexpectedly, the team wins the big game! Should you buy more diesel, foam mixture, & hire contractors to double your foam finger production ... or will you get stuck with too many and take a loss?

Maybe the right approach is raise prices of the existing fingers, but no overall production increase ... Yeah, that's probably safest. Sound like Texas?


In the 1960s & 70s, the US had no problem increasing generation capacity for the rise of air conditioning, and it'll have no problem increasing generation capacity for EVs ... What power companies are waiting for are indicators of persistent demand increases so they can cost justify the massive capital needed for new plants, something that's not yet materialized with EVs at 2%.

I'm very confident in capitalism: given the demand, supply is always met.

Originally Posted by grannyknot

They are never taking away my Z4.

There are still horses, and there'll always be (used) Z4s ... they just won't be as convenient to use, fuel, & maintain as they are now. No need for drama.

[GoneIn4Secs]

I have to laugh at the electric fanbois

ICE aint goin nowhere, all these "predictions" are as good as your climate change predictions for the past 40 yrs pfft

[dscabra]

Equestrian facilities vs. EV charging facilities near me:





This is just what popped up on Google Maps. It doesn't count the scores of horses in my neighborhood or the surrounding properties and doesn't even show the breeder that is less than 1/4" mile from me that has 30-50 horses on his property at any given time. We don't all live in densely populated metropolitan areas, and you don't have to get very far from the city before the EV infrastructure in place today becomes non-existent.

[RM7]

...

[bimmeryder01]

It will cause more gas stations to go because there ain't gonna be be consolidation because no single move gets any single player any amount of sites and this means 75% of US gas stations are quite industrially vulnerable to push coarsening business model that requires them to order in a month

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by dscabra

you don't have to get very far from the city before the EV infrastructure in place today becomes non-existent.

Wow, so you live in an area with no electricity? Crazy!

I though the rural electrification act from the 1930s took care of most areas of the US ...

[dscabra]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Wow, so you live in an area with no electricity? Crazy!

I though the rural electrification act from the 1930s took care of most areas of the US ...

Plenty of electricity and we even have indoor plumbing, but I imagine most people wouldn't take too kindly to someone plugging your EV into any of their outlets.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by BMWILUVU

All new cars will be electric in less than 10 years. Somebody is behind the scenes getting everybody to make that happen.

If this is true and you are right I am going to invest in a tow truck company.

[grannyknot]

[QUOTE


In the 1960s & 70s, the US had no problem increasing generation capacity for the rise of air conditioning, and it'll have no problem increasing generation capacity for EVs ... What power companies are waiting for are indicators of persistent demand increases so they can cost justify the massive capital needed for new plants, something that's not yet materialized with EVs at 2%.

I'm very confident in capitalism: given the demand, supply is always met.
[/QUOTE]

How? Generators powered by what?