[TheBingoBalls]

Anyone know or could find any price estimates before the Model S was officially announced? I think that would provide a better idea of how serious the estimated $35,000 could be.

[954Stealth]

Originally Posted by TheBingoBalls

For consumers, it's a great idea but I'm not too sure shareholders will be happy (another external factor) which is why I don't think $35,000 is realistic unless something happens within the next 3 years

If Tesla is able to secure a contract with China (which is now requiring 30% of all vehicle purchased by the government to be electric) I think Tesla's stock would surge (no pun intended). In a few years, China is set to become Tesla's primary market.

By this time the Gigafactory will be at or near full output capacity for their cells and packs (supply chain restraints will be minimized), Tesla infrastructure will be solid, the Tesla lineup will be at 4, multiple markets will have been penetrated successfully, their leasing program and sales revenue (GAAP and non-GAAP) will be signifanctly higher than it is now and I think this will all play in to keeping the cost of the III down.

[yousefnjr]

Originally Posted by TheBingoBalls

This. If the Model III undercut a decently equipped 3er by a fair amount, I would go tesla but if we're talking similar price point, I don't see any value in picking an all electric over a traditional petrol car.

Part of the value is in not having to spend $60/week or so on gas to run it. Not sure what the electric bill would look like, but it's probably less than filling up the tank. There's also likely to be some sort of government subsidy, and probably carpool access as well. For a large group of commuters that mostly drive to work and back, I can see this being a compelling option even at 3 series prices. BMW's own shift to heavy cars with lots of torque is indicative of the kind of driving experience people want.... Comfy with lots of balls at a stoplight

FWIW my car has a range of around 200 miles 16.3 mpg ftl

[MisterSkiMask]

If Musk says it, I listen.

I'm sure the $35,000 car will not have the range that we want, and the greater range will cast +-$50,000. But still interesting, I may have the put some solar panels on the house and say 'f*ck you' to "The Man"

[M3WC]

At $35k they won't be able to keep up with demand.

[954Stealth]

[dtn]

Originally Posted by KingOfJericho

I hope that's just a render or chop because it looks virtually identical to a model S. I hope they differentiate the models a little better than the current crop of Germans.

Originally Posted by 954Stealth

It look similar but is allegedly 20% smaller than the "S". But, yes the photos in the OP are renderings.

Also, supposedly gets around 200 miles per charge.


We all know how R&D and production for these thing can go but hopefully it'll stick around the date/price tag currently esitmated.

Musk is supposed to have built a gigafactory battery plant to develop the batteries which will hopefully keep the pricetag sub $40K (although the cost of building the plant is astronomical)

I believe I've read a few times that the next Tesla sedan is not going to be be based off the Model S' styling.

"Tesla’s designer, Franz von Holzhausen, has said previously that the Model 3 will have a more distinctive design than the Model S (i.e. it will probably look like a funky EV, as opposed to a fairly standard sedan)."

[954Stealth]

This is an excerpt from a 10-Q form submitted to the SEC:


In addition, we have also announced our intent to develop Gen III which we expect to produce at the Tesla Factory after the introduction of Model X. We intend to offer this vehicle at a lower price point and expect to produce it at higher volumes than our Model S. Importantly, we anticipate producing our Gen III vehicle for the mass market and thus we will need a high-volume supply of lithium-ion cells at reasonable prices.

While our plan is to attempt to produce lithium-ion cells and finished battery packs for our Gen III vehicles at a new Tesla Gigafactory, our plans for such production are at an early stage and we have not yet finalized a site for the construction of the Tesla Gigafactory nor completed a factory design. In addition, we have no experience in the production of lithium-ion cells, and accordingly we intend to engage partners with significant experience in cell production and to date we have not formalized such partnerships. In addition, the cost of building and operating the Tesla Gigafactory could exceed our current expectations and the Tesla Gigafactory may take longer to bring online than we anticipate.

If we are unable to build the Tesla Gigafactory in a timely manner to produce high volumes of quality lithium-ion cells for Gen III at reasonable prices and thus are forced to rely on others to supply us with lithium-ion cells for Gen III, our ability to produce our Gen III vehicles at a price that allows us to sell Gen III profitably could be constrained. Finally, we have very limited experience allocating our available resources among the design and production of multiple models of vehicles, such as Model S (including any variants we may introduce such as right-hand drive), Model X and Gen III.

While we intend each of our production vehicles and their variants to meet a distinct segment of the automotive market, our vehicles may end up competing with each other which may delay sales and associated revenue to future periods. Also, if we fail to accurately anticipate demand for each of our vehicles, this could result in inefficient expenditures and production delays.

Furthermore, historically, automobile customers have come to expect new and improved vehicle models to be introduced frequently. In order to meet these expectations, we may in the future be required to introduce on a regular basis new vehicle models as well as enhanced versions of existing vehicle models.

As technologies change in the future for automobiles in general and performance electric vehicles specifically, we will be expected to upgrade or adapt our vehicles and introduce new models in order to continue to provide vehicles with the latest technology and meet customer expectations. To date, we have limited experience simultaneously designing, testing, manufacturing, upgrading, adapting and selling our electric vehicles.




--- and later ----

Our growth is highly dependent upon the adoption by consumers of, and we are subject to an elevated risk of any reduced demand for, alternative fuel vehicles in general and electric vehicles in particular. If the market for electric vehicles in North America, Europe and Asia does not develop as we expect or develops more slowly than we expect, our business, prospects, financial condition and operating results will be harmed.

The market for alternative fuel vehicles is relatively new, rapidly evolving, characterized by rapidly changing technologies, price competition, additional competitors, evolving government regulation and industry standards, frequent new vehicle announcements and changing consumer demands and behaviors


--- Other variables that may affect the date/cost for the 3 ---

If we are unable to adequately reduce the manufacturing costs of Model S or otherwise control the costs associated with operating our business, our financial condition and operating results will suffer.

We are dependent on our suppliers, the vast majority of which are single source suppliers, and the inability of these suppliers to continue to deliver, or their refusal to deliver, necessary components of our vehicles in a timely manner at prices, quality levels, and volumes acceptable to us would have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and operating results.

We may be unable to increase production and deliveries of Model S in line with our plans, both of which could harm our business and prospects.

Our long-term success will be dependent upon our ability to design, build and achieve market acceptance of new vehicle models, specifically Model S and new vehicle models such as Model X and Gen III.

Our future growth is dependent upon consumers’ willingness to adopt electric vehicles.

Our growth is highly dependent upon the adoption by consumers of, and we are subject to an elevated risk of any reduced demand for, alternative fuel vehicles in general and electric vehicles in particular. If the market for electric vehicles in North America, Europe and Asia does not develop as we expect or develops more slowly than we expect, our business, prospects, financial condition and operating results will be harmed. The market for alternative fuel vehicles is relatively new, rapidly evolving, characterized by rapidly changing technologies, price competition, additional competitors, evolving government regulation and industry standards, frequent new vehicle announcements and changing consumer demands and behaviors.

If we fail to manage future growth effectively as we rapidly grow our company, especially internationally, we may not be able to produce, market, sell and service our vehicles successfully

Our limited experience with our product offerings makes evaluating our business and future prospects difficult

We may fail to meet our publicly announced guidance or other expectations about our business, which would cause our stock price to decline

Our vehicles make use of lithium-ion battery cells, which have been observed to catch fire or vent smoke and flame, and such events have raised concerns, and future events may lead to additional concerns, about the batteries used in automotive applications

If our vehicles or vehicles that contain our powertrains fail to perform as expected, or if we suffer product recalls for Model S, our ability to develop, market and sell our electric vehicles could be harmed

We have a history of losses and have to deliver significant cost reductions to achieve sustained, long-term profitability and long-term commercial success.

The introduction of our resale value guarantee may result in lower revenues and profits and exposes us to resale risk to the extent many customers elect to return their vehicles to us and the residual values of these cars are below the guaranteed value.

Increases in costs, disruption of supply or shortage of raw materials, in particular lithium-ion cells, could harm our business

Our success could be harmed by negative publicity regarding our company or our products, particularly Model S.

Our distribution model is different from the predominant current distribution model for automobile manufacturers, which makes evaluating our business, operating results and future prospects difficult

We may become subject to product liability claims, which could harm our financial condition and liquidity if we are not able to successfully defend or insure against such claims

We are currently expanding and improving our information technology systems. If these implementations are not successful, our business and operations could be disrupted and our operating results could be harmed

We may not realize the benefits of our Supercharger network, which could harm our business, brand and operating results

If we are unable to design, develop, market and sell new electric vehicles that address additional market opportunities, our business, prospects and operating results will suffer

We may experience significant delays in the design, manufacture and launch of Model X which could harm our business and prospects

The automotive market is highly competitive, and we may not be successful in competing in this industry. We currently face competition from new and established competitors and expect to face competition from others in the future

Demand in the automobile industry is highly volatile, which may lead to lower vehicle unit sales and adversely affect our operating results

Our financial results may vary significantly from period-to-period due to the seasonality of our business, fluctuations in our operating costs and other factors

If we are unable to establish and maintain confidence in our long-term business prospects among consumers, analysts and within our industry, then our financial condition, operating results, business prospects and stock price may suffer materially.

We have limited experience servicing our vehicles, especially outside of the United States, and we are using a different service model from the one typically used in the industry. If we are unable to address the service requirements of our existing and future customers, our business will be materially and adversely affected

We may not succeed in maintaining and strengthening the Tesla brand, which would materially and adversely affect customer acceptance of our vehicles and components and our business, revenues and prospects

If our vehicle owners customize our vehicles or change the charging infrastructure with aftermarket products, the vehicle may not operate properly, which could harm our business

Our deposits for Model S and reservations for Model X may be refundable to customers, and significant cancellations could harm our financial condition and business prospects

Our plan to expand our network of Tesla stores, service centers and Superchargers will require significant cash investments and management resources and may not meet our expectations with respect to additional sales of our electric vehicles. In addition, we may not be able to open stores or service centers in certain states or Superchargers in desired locations

We face risks associated with our international operations and expansion, including unfavorable regulatory, political, tax and labor conditions and establishing ourselves in new markets, all of which could harm our business.

Foreign currency movements relative to the U.S. dollar could harm our financial results

Developments in alternative technologies or improvements in the internal combustion engine may materially adversely affect the demand for our electric vehicles

Our strategic relationships with third parties, such as Daimler, Toyota and Panasonic, are subject to various risks which could adversely affect our business and future prospects

Any failure to execute on the Daimler B-Class EV program could hurt our reputation as well as our profitability on this program

--- and it goes on but you get the ide:. LOTS OF VARIABLES AND TIME FOR THINGS TO GO WRONG AND/OR UNPLANNED WHICH CAN AFFECT THE TARGETED 2017 LAUNCH AS WELL AS THE $35,000 MARK. ---

[Sylon]

Damn, such a missed opportunity not calling it the E. Although, there's not a teenager in the world that still isn't going to get a chuckle at them the models S,3,X either.


Back to the car, while I'm not a fan of electric cars in general, Teslas are really nice. My concern would be the range.

[BMW269]

The Tesla S already has a very cheap and low quality interior, not talking about bland and low class design, don't know what an even cheaper Tesla will be like inside.

[chumley]

Assuming this comes in closer to $50k, that's still no more than a moderately well-equipped 4cyl 3 series costs. I would absolutely consider this. A good friend has a Model S and while it's not perfect, it is amazing for a first effort from a new company. Sit in one and have someone who knows the car run through the tech and you'll find your iDrive laughable. While I don't think the interior is quiet up to the $80k-$100k alot of these sell for, it's as much because they tend to embrace a more Scandinavian, minimalist approach. I've both driven and ridden in them and I never thought any part of it felt cheap. They are never gonna look busy or ornate. I see them more Volvo in that regard.

I drive 5-6 miles to work each way, maybe 20-30 miles on the weekends. On the rare occasion we travel and don't fly, we take my wife's X5. I would be a perfect candidate for this. I could go a week or more on a charge and never have to buy a drop of gas and have almost no maintenance. It would fit into my daily driver + project or track car scenario perfectly!

[swanson]

If it looks anything like the pics posted by the OP, it looks miles better then anything in its class.

[XM_Rocks]

Originally Posted by TheBingoBalls

Full electric going up against the 3-Series, C-Class, A4, ATS and IS? Yeah, likely not going to happen. People are throwing the "3-Series competitor" around too much lately.

The Model S is a great car for what it is but it's hardly a competitor to any petrol car. If you want to buy one over a similar priced petrol car, great but no one is going to put it through any serious comparisons (I don't want to see that drag race between the Model S and the M5...).

I do appreciate Tesla's idea of really pushing electric technology and while it may be the future, I just can't say it's a competitor to any car that isn't electric today.

A Model S stomped a mudhole on me a few weeks ago.

He also had a passenger.

[son_of_siggy]

Originally Posted by TheBingoBalls

This. If the Model III undercut a decently equipped 3er by a fair amount, I would go tesla but if we're talking similar price point, I don't see any value in picking an all electric over a traditional petrol car.

Really? No value in instant-torque or spending a fraction on "fuel"?

[J-Spec Dan]

it'll look different by 2017...if it comes out on time.

[TheBingoBalls]

Originally Posted by son_of_siggy

Really? No value in instant-torque or spending a fraction on "fuel"?

I'm not going to diminish what an electric motor can provide in terms of torque but is it a big enough factor to overlook the relatively short range? Sure, to charge the car costs fractions in comparison to fuel but there's also the charging time (which I think for the Model S is about 9 hours?) combine that with short range I don't think I can tolerate that enough to take it over a petrol especially if prices are about the same.

Today, I will take the convenience of a petrol car. It's bad enough that I have to think whether my iPhone is sufficiently charged for the day, I don't want to have to think about whether or not my car is.

Of course if the price is right, I'm willing to consider but for my driving (habits), a Tesla today doesn't meet my needs.

[E90SLAM]

Drove the Model S last and was impressed by its performance, luxury and comfort, as well as versatility. Looking forward to the Model 3 (was hoping to call it Model E, and make a "S", "E", "X" collection).

The only downside was charging time. But with more and more super-charge station opens, I should be able to have a cup of coffee and my car is charged and ready to go again.

Also their warranty and after-sale customer service was pretty good compare to traditional car dealerships.

If Model III does put on sale for 35K, I'm in!

[son_of_siggy]

Originally Posted by TheBingoBalls

I'm not going to diminish what an electric motor can provide in terms of torque but is it a big enough factor to overlook the relatively short range?

I get that, but I think people in general really really overestimate how often they need that long range. Yes, there are some that long distance driving is simply a part of their daily life, but on average, people drive less than 40 miles per day.

Heck, last time I went further than 150 miles guess what was at the end of the trip (in some podunk town mind you) . . . a Tesla charging station. An hour lunch and I would have enough juice to get back home.

If you're someone who regularly drives 200+ miles in a single stretch, and then in the same day drives another stretch, then yes, I can accept a car like this just doesn't fit your needs, but that segment of the market is few and far between. But I think people in general overestimate their auto-buying needs, else we wouldn't see so many Rubicons in mall parking lots.

[Chihuahua]

Originally Posted by 954Stealth

How about Model 3 vs i3?

If the Model 3 ends up being what I think it is going to be, there is zippy chance I'd choose an i3, and I've driven the i3.

[Chihuahua]

Originally Posted by MisterSkiMask

If Musk says it, I listen.

+1, he is absolutely THE most important person in the auto industry today. We are witnessing the biggest paradigm shift in the auto industry in 100 years.

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by Kyle B

+1, he is absolutely THE most important person in the auto industry today. We are witnessing the biggest paradigm shift in the auto industry in 100 years.

I'm not so sure about that. A paradigm shift would be if Tesla developed an electric car that had a range of 400 miles and could be recharged in 5 minutes. Using essentially what is a very large cell phone battery (i.e. current battery tech) to fuel a heavy automobile isn't completely changing how the automobile works. The Electric car has been around from the beginning of the industry with ranges of 80 miles or so (which at the time met most peoples needs BTW). Reading the 10Q (thanks for posting it) it is evident that Tesla is a very small company with inadequate staffing to meet the demands of a full-production, diverse-model automobile manufacturer. It has be written that the i3 took most all of BMW's engineering resources at one point, which affected development of other petrol-fueled models. This electric car thing isn't easy gents; competing with a device that has 100+ years of development, and well-supported industrial manufacturing base, and very cheap to produce, is extremely difficult. The electric car at this point offers hardly any benefit to the consumer, not in operating cost nor convenience. Not that we shouldn't try though.

I found it amusing when Elon wrote that some of his reasoning for releasing Tesla patent rights was that (paraphrasing) "only 1 percent of the large automotive manufacturers products are offered as electric vehicles." Well the reason for that is because the large manufacturers see the market of EVs as only 1 percent. EVs are a very difficult business case.

I like EVs really for one reason only, the fuel price is very stable. I hate gasoline pricing volatility. The Tesla 3 (maybe call it the "E3") with a 200-mile range would fit my weekly 800-mile commuting needs, and at $35K (I assume that's quoting using the $7,500 tax credit) would fit well within the total operating cost of such a single-purpose commute. But using the Tesla 3 as a single family car to cover all my commuting needs, nah, it wouldn't work.

[happos2]

Originally Posted by dtn

I believe I've read a few times that the next Tesla sedan is not going to be be based off the Model S' styling.

"Tesla’s designer, Franz von Holzhausen, has said previously that the Model 3 will have a more distinctive design than the Model S (i.e. it will probably look like a funky EV, as opposed to a fairly standard sedan)."

I kind of hope this isn't true. That is a major plus for me in Tesla...it looks like a normal car, not your typical electric car from the other car companies
(Prius E / Leaf, / i3 / etc...)