[Humdizzle]

manual for me. I can appreciate a DCT though. I've had a 458 and GTR and both of them can do spectacular things with the dct trans that are not possible in a manual. But its not as engaging.

I get it if you're out on the track chasing lap times, you need something for a commute in stop-and-go traffic, or your wife needs to drive it. for that sort of stuff dct is great.

manual just adds an extra layer of immersion to the experience for me though. I could care less about losing to another car by 1-2 car length because its a dct. There will always be someone faster.

[zx10guy]

To add to the discussion about DCTs here. In my opinion, DCTs for the most part should never be used in a car that is used as a daily beater. I've had my fair share of issues with my DCT equipped 135i. Took 3 years to sort the problems out and even now, I find myself having to occasionally reset the adaptations to get the trans to behave properly at low speeds/stop and go. I'm not the only one that has had problems with DCT equipped 135i's.

Also other manufacturers have had issues with DCTs. Ask the owners of Ford Focus' about their DCTs or what appears to be a growing issue with Kia Soul GTs with DCTs. I have a friend who has a brand new Soul that had to have her DCT trans replaced at 8k miles.

And for the record, I would have purchased my 135i with a manual but at the time I was in the market, I wanted to buy new and there was no more inventory. I bought when production of new 135i's had stopped. So no ordering and inventory was sparse for a black 135i. Not only do I enjoy driving manuals but I didn't want to deal with the added complexity/repair costs of an auto.

[Redd]

Fortunately the M3 DCT is one of the most reliable gearboxes out there.

[TSM330i]

Die-hard manual driver here. Both my daily (GTI) and fun car (911) are manuals.
I don't give a flying fig whether an automatic is "faster" than a manual or "how good" the new autos are. The fact is, after I play with the flappy paddles for 5 minutes I'm bored.
There is nothing like the driver involvement of a manual. I drive the wife's X3 every now and then and am just bored with it. How hard is it to just hit the brake and the throttle and not have to think about what gear you're in, rev matching on down shifts or getting the perfect up shift?
Oh yeah, every time I'm stuck in stop-and-go traffic I laugh about having a manual. I have NEVER wished it was an automatic. It's a fun game to keep the car in first gear, creeping along at idle and seeing how I can play around with distance to the car in front of me. Yes, it's entertaining to me.
Plus, I've got years of track experience. I'll go in a manual car and give you your flappy paddle and see who's quicker around the track. Driver mod is the first mod to make in a car.

[Desmond79]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

No offense, but a young man has leg issues with a clutch? Lol. I was back driving my cars two weeks after knee replacement surgery.

I did say I went in "what in the world" mode. And he played all-district golf. It was a 2000 328i in 2008 and I thought it was fairly easy. But a lot of kids these days are in the "If at first I don't succeed, surrender." But I think it was probably more of a lack of interest and an excuse. He didn't see the thrill. He finds flyfishing as thrilling. And I join him.

[sygazelle]

Originally Posted by Soterios

....It's never been about performance for me. It's always been about the driving experience.

^^^This right here.

I've love all the BMW's I've owned. One of my favorites was my first, a '88 528e with a 5-speed manual with of 125 hp if I remember correctly. At first, the gears were tight and hard to shift. I complained and the dealer told me, "just wait until it breaks in, it will loosen up and be perfect. The dealer was right. That car wasn't fast and it certainly wasn't high-performance, but the engine was smooth, the transmission was fantastic, and the suspension and brakes were excellent. I'd put on classical music and take the long way home every chance I got.

I love the modern cars, but that memory will always stick in my mind.

[gosi]

If you do a lot of driving, an automatic means that you can be DCT off and in manual mode for an engaging drive or comfort and automatic mode for relaxed driving.

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by sygazelle

Will this continue to be the case for years to come or are car enthusiasts beginning to embrace the much improved auto transmissions now available on cars?

The answer to this question isn't found in a discussion forum. The answer is found by looking at sales data. The manual transmission has been decreasing in popularity for a couple decades and the rate of decline has particularly increased over the last few years.

The reasons for this is simple. The manual transmission is no longer the better performer nor the more efficient choice. Technology reached a point where automatic transmissions were able to shift faster and yield better fuel economy. For most people these two factors erased the manual transmission's value proposition.

As we head toward a future of electric vehicles, the multi-speed transmission itself will all but fade entirely into obsolescence.

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by TSM330i

Die-hard manual driver here. Both my daily (GTI) and fun car (911) are manuals.
I don't give a flying fig whether an automatic is "faster" than a manual or "how good" the new autos are. The fact is, after I play with the flappy paddles for 5 minutes I'm bored.
There is nothing like the driver involvement of a manual. I drive the wife's X3 every now and then and am just bored with it. How hard is it to just hit the brake and the throttle and not have to think about what gear you're in, rev matching on down shifts or getting the perfect up shift?
Oh yeah, every time I'm stuck in stop-and-go traffic I laugh about having a manual. I have NEVER wished it was an automatic. It's a fun game to keep the car in first gear, creeping along at idle and seeing how I can play around with distance to the car in front of me. Yes, it's entertaining to me.
Plus, I've got years of track experience. I'll go in a manual car and give you your flappy paddle and see who's quicker around the track. Driver mod is the first mod to make in a car.

This.

[sygazelle]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

The answer to this question isn't found in a discussion forum. The answer is found by looking at sales data. The manual transmission has been decreasing in popularity for a couple decades and the rate of decline has particularly increased over the last few years.

The reasons for this is simple. The manual transmission is no longer the better performer nor the more efficient choice. Technology reached a point where automatic transmissions were able to shift faster and yield better fuel economy. For most people these two factors erased the manual transmission's value proposition.

As we head toward a future of electric vehicles, the transmission itself will all but fade entirely into obsolescence.

Actually, the reason I posed this question on a car forum is because I was interested in the point of view of car enthusiasts. I felt that the responses I got here would bring out the thoughts of long-term manual drivers. And, the responses so far have been exactly what I was hoping to learn. Everybody knows that sales of manual transmissions are down and dropping. So, looking at sales data would not adequately address my question. The car enthusiasts on this thread, on the other hand, have given great responses as to why they feel the way they feel about manual vs auto.

Thank you for sharing your view too.

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by gosi

If you do a lot of driving, an automatic means that you can be DCT off and in manual mode for an engaging drive or comfort and automatic mode for relaxed driving.

I'm relaxed driving when I'm in complete control of the direction the car is in. Automatics leave that part out.

[j0oftheworld]

In the same way there's people who trust the gov 100%..
Let's keep in mind that lots of cars can't pass emissions without fancy engine programming and auto transmissions. hmm carmakers hmm

Explanation for those who might be bored:

[Moflow]

Originally Posted by ///M4 F83

my life-long passion for the third pedal sure isn't diminishing.

Before I picked up my F83, I really wanted a GT-R and also considered the new Supra but ultimately decided that I couldn't go without a manual transmission. No regrets.

Oh and i love the sound/control of open dual air intakes with a manual transmission

I'm a Toyota fanboy who has wanted a Supra since the MKIV came out when I was a kid. But i'm not buying a toy that thinks it knows how to have fun better than I do. The manual transmission is THE reason i ended up buying an M2.

And yeah, autos are faster. But would you rather drive your car on a racetrack or go several seconds faster around that racetrack from the passenger seat with an instructor driving? Because we're quickly reaching the point where computer intervention is going to make throttle control optional. And steering will be next.

There are already self driving race cars out there, though they're still not faster than a (super talented) human to my knowledge.

Everyone has to draw that line of "okay, now you just made it boring" somewhere. For me, its at that third pedal. For others, it may be elsewhere and that's fine. But in my 38 years on this planet, i've never felt like I needed an auto and hence, i've never owned one.

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by sygazelle

So, looking at sales data would not adequately address my question.

It actually does address the question of whether enthusiasts are buying vehicles with automatic transmissions. If they were not, then sales of vehicles equipped with manual transmissions would not be in such decline.

The car enthusiasts on this thread, on the other hand, have given great responses as to why they feel the way they feel about manual vs auto.

Indeed. Those feelings are certainly valid, and it's great that people still have a choice. We are probably in the last fifteen years or so of the manual transmission, so now is a good time to enjoy the last hurrah. Of course, legacy vehicles with manual transmissions will be around indefinitely so there will always be the opportunity to enjoy those.

Thank you for sharing your view too.

You're welcome. It was more of a quick check of the marketplace rather than my view. I drove vehicles with manual transmissions for years as well, so I understand the nostalgia.

[RM7]

I think lots of people stay in a mode of denial about this.

It's going to evaporate, save for a few classic cars and old stuff that continues as long as people make parts for it.

It's going to evaporate for a variety of reasons, some of which are already happening, some of which will be happening.

Most people drive automatics. They buy automatics for their wife or kids. For every person that says they prefer automatics, there are dozens of people that just use a car for transportation and many of those people that say that prefer manuals don't put their money where their mouth is, they weren't a bit enough factor for the manufacturers to keep offering them.

It's harder to hold your phone and drive at the same time in a manual. If you've observed any driving habits in the last 10 years, you'll know this is rampant and it's not changing. It's not young people, or old people, or spotted people, or tall people, it's everyone. They all do it. It's not changing, no matter how much you don't like it.

Cars are more efficient and faster with auto transmissions. There was someone that said he'll take the manual around the track and give the flappy-paddle shifting car to someone else. I'd take that bet with a good DCT or auto trans. It's not so much about the transmission IME, it's what's right. A fast shifting precise auto trans is amazing. A hunting auto trans is a PITA. Just having it be a manual doesn't guarantee it's good for the car.

But that doesn't even matter that much, since cars are moving towards electric and CVT technology. A lot of this is due to people not wanting to "drive", they want to get from place A to B. They live in a city or whatever, taking crowded freeways and streets. It really doesn't matter what car you have in a lot of these situations, you aren't going fast and you aren't impressing anyone. A manual just ends up being a lot of work for nothing.

I like my manual, but I'm not under the false belief that they'll be here forever. They simply won't. People simply do not put their $$$ where their mouth is and compromise.

Personally, I have terrible ankles, I had surgery on one already (and couldn't drive a manual for months) and will likely have similar on the other at some point and they are both degrading, so I don't see myself as being able to sustain it in the long run.

[Tacoma]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

It actually does address the question of whether enthusiasts are buying vehicles with automatic transmissions. If they were not, then sales of vehicles equipped with manual transmissions would not be in such decline....

I'd argue it's not the whole story. We're looking at a kind of feedback loop. While it's true that some enthusiasts are choosing to no longer buy manuals (e.g., because manuals shift slower), it's also true that others may still prefer manuals but unfortunately the car they want isn't offered with a manual, so they are "forced" to buy automatics.

Marketing then sees this data point as more people choosing automatics (even though that may not be the case) and then they offer less models with manuals, giving potential manual buyers even less choice, and so on. Accelerating this loop, new drivers are less likely to drive manuals because less choice of models with available manuals. So the age of manual drivers are getting older.

So an answer to the OP's question "Will this [choosing manuals] continue to be the case for years to come?", I would say, yes, this will continue for years to come, but these die-hard enthusiasts will have no choice but to go to the used car market. And eventually the aforementioned older drivers will just die out and manual cars finally extinct.

[fullstack]

I'd get anything under 450 hp with a manual and anything more I'd get a... ahh who am I kidding. I'd get a mt in a suv if I could. There are times when I feel too lazy to drive and at those times I wish I had a driver... and that driver would be driving a manual transmission.

[David70]

Originally Posted by zx10guy

To add to the discussion about DCTs here. In my opinion, DCTs for the most part should never be used in a car that is used as a daily beater. I've had my fair share of issues with my DCT equipped 135i. Took 3 years to sort the problems out and even now, I find myself having to occasionally reset the adaptations to get the trans to behave properly at low speeds/stop and go. I'm not the only one that has had problems with DCT equipped 135i's.

Also other manufacturers have had issues with DCTs. Ask the owners of Ford Focus' about their DCTs or what appears to be a growing issue with Kia Soul GTs with DCTs. I have a friend who has a brand new Soul that had to have her DCT trans replaced at 8k miles.

And for the record, I would have purchased my 135i with a manual but at the time I was in the market, I wanted to buy new and there was no more inventory. I bought when production of new 135i's had stopped. So no ordering and inventory was sparse for a black 135i. Not only do I enjoy driving manuals but I didn't want to deal with the added complexity/repair costs of an auto.

I had a 2006 Audi A3 (essentially a GTI) with a DCT that I bought used with 20k miles and sold it with 150k miles. Proper maintenance and a manufacturer that new how to make a good one are all that are needed. Assuming almost 15 years later VW/Audi has improved on it.

Originally Posted by mkoesel

The answer to this question isn't found in a discussion forum. The answer is found by looking at sales data. The manual transmission has been decreasing in popularity for a couple decades and the rate of decline has particularly increased over the last few years.

The reasons for this is simple. The manual transmission is no longer the better performer nor the more efficient choice. Technology reached a point where automatic transmissions were able to shift faster and yield better fuel economy. For most people these two factors erased the manual transmission's value proposition.

As we head toward a future of electric vehicles, the multi-speed transmission itself will all but fade entirely into obsolescence.

Agree, in the past you didn't need to be an enthusiast to buy one, there were lots of reasons to buy a manual - better mpg, more reliable, faster, more gears, lower initial price. Now you have to be an enthusiast to want one and then be ok with the above being slightly worse. Some part of the enthusiast crowd went automatic and all of the rest of the market did the same.

[Moflow]

Originally Posted by Tacoma

I'd argue it's not the whole story. We're looking at a kind of feedback loop. While it's true that some enthusiasts are choosing to no longer buy manuals (e.g., because manuals shift slower), it's also true that others may still prefer manuals but unfortunately the car they want isn't offered with a manual, so they are "forced" to buy automatics.

Marketing then sees this data point as more people choosing automatics (even though that may not be the case) and then they offer less models with manuals, giving potential manual buyers even less choice, and so on. Accelerating this loop, new drivers are less likely to drive manuals because less choice of models with available manuals. So the age of manual drivers are getting older.

So an answer to the OP's question "Will this [choosing manuals] continue to be the case for years to come?", I would say, yes, this will continue for years to come, but these die-hard enthusiasts will have no choice but to go to the used car market. And eventually the aforementioned older drivers will just die out and manual cars finally extinct.

As someone else pointed out, the M2 has a take rate of around 50 percent with the manual.

and yet, go browse the classifieds....the HUUUUGE majority of new M2's for sale are DCT equipped. That means that not only are HALF of buyers getting the manual, they're also willing to sit around for months while their car is built specifically so they can have that transmission.

There are a ton of people who are 'settling' for an automatic out there. And car companies are actively encouraging this. Why in the name of god would a manufacturer want to engineer a car for 2 transmissions when they can do so for just one? If they can convince the buying public that it's what WE actually wanted, all the better.

Anyway, should be interesting when this all comes back around with self driving cars that can't be driven manually. I bet we have pretty much the same arguments in like 30 years.

[Rhanis]

I do not expect the manual transmission to be around forever or even for much longer at a reasonable price point. This expectation is driving a significant portion of my decision to purchase the forthcoming G80 M3. There were credible concerns/questions around the 6MT being on offer for the G80/2 until such was confirmed, and that may well be as far as it goes in this market segment.

The absence of an available manual transmission effectively eliminates a large group of potential candidates for my purchase. That available pool is much smaller in 2020 than it was in 2008 when last I was looking to buy. In another dozen years the manual will almost certainly not be available. Thus, I look at it as "get in now, or try to find one in the used market later."

[RM7]

Originally Posted by Moflow

As someone else pointed out, the M2 has a take rate of around 50 percent with the manual.

and yet, go browse the classifieds....the HUUUUGE majority of new M2's for sale are DCT equipped. That means that not only are HALF of buyers getting the manual, they're also willing to sit around for months while their car is built specifically so they can have that transmission.

There are a ton of people who are 'settling' for an automatic out there. And car companies are actively encouraging this. Why in the name of god would a manufacturer want to engineer a car for 2 transmissions when they can do so for just one? If they can convince the buying public that it's what WE actually wanted, all the better.

Anyway, should be interesting when this all comes back around with self driving cars that can't be driven manually. I bet we have pretty much the same arguments in like 30 years.

But they do engineer it for 2 transmissions. In Yurp, you have endorsements on your license that allow you to drive manual, automatic, or both. They just don't bring both versions to the US because it doesn't make economic sense to do so. A car that sits on the lot for a year vs. one that sells in a month. It's the take-rates over the last 20 years that have brought us to this point.

And lots of people shopping the high-end market want their cake and want to eat it too. They want something that can hang with the best sports-cars, yet cruise in traffic with minimal input. Or they want SUVs for driving around in the cities. Either way, manual transmission isn't on the list of requested options.

[Germanauto]

They'll keep dying off as EVs rise in popularity. There will always be a small niche where it will be available. I think cars like the Miata, Mustang, and 911 will hold onto it. Maybe even the Wrangler and Bronco. BMW seems to be the last one of the German big 3 holding out with a stick shift in the M2 and upcoming M3, but I'm not sure how long that will last.

In general the market is shunning what we deem "driver's cars." With crossovers/SUVs and pickups rising in popularity, the world becoming increasingly tech dominated, increasing safety standards, politicians trying to legislate ICE cars out of existence, and the EV circlejerk these cars will be relegated to an insignificant portion of the market. Lightweight, manual transmission, and tight feedback-providing steering are becoming a thing of the past.