[BlkGS]

Originally Posted by X5MnM3comp

You’re wrong again. I don’t give a shit who is the leader, I care about if the things they do make sense for the people or not. I also can give less of shit if you agree with my view or many others. Everyone is entitled to have their own opinions. It’s ok. But the key difference between majority’s and yours is that one is based on fundamental principles that are printed in books used in universities in the world, please enlighten us what are the universal principles without bias opinion that can back up your view? Look, learning never ends, I don’t know what I don’t know. So if there’s something profoundly crucial to drive out of norm results, I’m all ears and happy to be a student of yours.

You're right, you don't know what you don't know. You are focusing on short term things you think will impact you, but there are much much larger things at play.

Not the smallest of which is that China will effectively age out of being able to stage an invasion on Taiwan in 5-15 years. We have already seen what a disruption does to supply chains, not imagine it's a wartime scenario where CHina cuts off exports to the US to pressure us to letting them take Taiwan. Imagine a wartime economy where all the US manufacturing and resource industries have been decimated by cheap Chinese imports and we aren't able to spin up for a major conflict. This may not matter much to you, but I have a young son, who would potentially be of fighting age if this were to occur. The best deterrent we have to Chinese aggression is to disallow them the kind of supply chain control they desire. If we have strong supply chains for things like pharmaceuticals, food, durable goods, raw resources, etc then China cannot wield its economy as a weapon against us.

Beyond that, Canada has long functioned as a backdoor for Chinese interests. Chinese products flood into Canada and then into the US due to our trade deals. They are "Canadian goods", but they're 99% Chinese.

Mexico is pretty obvious. They've been complicit in allowing massive amounts of migrants through. Mexico should have taken these people for asylum but instead assisted in getting them to the US. Most of the fentanyl coming into the US is coming through Mexico. Mexico has struggled with controlling the cartels and their smuggling operations, and it's been to the detriment of the US. Arguably, Mexico has put much effort into it as of late, because letting it go on isn't hurting them really.

At the end of the day, it's vital to national security for the US to be able to stand alone and not rely on global trade in times of crisis and war. That's going to cause some pain in the short term, as decades of boomers have sold out our manufacturing base and middle class. It's not going to be a quick process and it's gonna hurt a long the way and our portfolios are going to suffer because the market loves nothing more than cheap Chinese labor, but in the long term it's for the best.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by BlkGS

You're right, you don't know what you don't know. You are focusing on short term things you think will impact you, but there are much much larger things at play.

Not the smallest of which is that China will effectively age out of being able to stage an invasion on Taiwan in 5-15 years. We have already seen what a disruption does to supply chains, not imagine it's a wartime scenario where CHina cuts off exports to the US to pressure us to letting them take Taiwan. Imagine a wartime economy where all the US manufacturing and resource industries have been decimated by cheap Chinese imports and we aren't able to spin up for a major conflict. This may not matter much to you, but I have a young son, who would potentially be of fighting age if this were to occur. The best deterrent we have to Chinese aggression is to disallow them the kind of supply chain control they desire. If we have strong supply chains for things like pharmaceuticals, food, durable goods, raw resources, etc then China cannot wield its economy as a weapon against us.

Beyond that, Canada has long functioned as a backdoor for Chinese interests. Chinese products flood into Canada and then into the US due to our trade deals. They are "Canadian goods", but they're 99% Chinese.

Mexico is pretty obvious. They've been complicit in allowing massive amounts of migrants through. Mexico should have taken these people for asylum but instead assisted in getting them to the US. Most of the fentanyl coming into the US is coming through Mexico. Mexico has struggled with controlling the cartels and their [...]

the absolute best example of this is what happened early on in covid...

to no one surprise... it seems we havent learned anything... bcuz well margins

[DrVenture]

The only thing that is going to matter is the economic numbers, in a year or so.

It appears some are now in agreement that tariffs are going to really hurt, but "we need to do it" and then stating unattainable reasons why. Anyone who thinks that tariffs against China are going to rein in their aspirations is naive and lacks historical context. The U.S. will never be in a position to go to war against China over Taiwan. Ever. The mere notion suggests a lack of realistic context.

Obviously, the narrative that this was supposed to help the lower class workers is now being abandoned, as the reality begins to sink in. Rotating rationalizations suggest a need to justify a flawed concept.

Can we stay on economics, and not spin into a myriad of deflections? If some tariff "deal" is reached that doesn't begin to rein in China's economic growth, will supporterss to this current policy accept that they were betrayed? Or just rotate to new rationalizations? A look at the USMCA deal should shed some insight into potential outcomes in that regard. It did not improve our trade deficit with the affected countries.

[BlkGS]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

The only thing that is going to matter is the economic numbers, in a year or so.

It appears some are now in agreement that tariffs are going to really hurt, but "we need to do it" and then stating unattainable reasons why. Anyone who thinks that tariffs against China are going to rein in their aspirations is naive and lacks historical context. The U.S. will never be in a position to go to war against China over Taiwan. Ever. The mere notion suggests a lack of realistic context.

Obviously, the narrative that this was supposed to help the lower class workers is now being abandoned, as the reality begins to sink in. Rotating rationalizations suggest a need to justify a flawed concept.

Can we stay on economics, and not spin into a myriad of deflections? If some tariff "deal" is reached that doesn't begin to rein in China's economic growth, will supporterss to this current policy accept that they were betrayed? Or just rotate to new rationalizations? A look at the USMCA deal should shed some insight into potential outcomes in that regard.

It will benefit the middle class long term. But the reality is you don't spin up a factory overnight. It takes years to go from idea to operational, and the threats of the tariffs alone have already started the process of getting manufacturers to invest in American plants over foreign ones.

It will hurt in the short term because we have made ourselves so beholden to cheap Chinese crap. It's like any sort of addiction, it's going to suck early on, you're gonna have withdrawals and bad days. But eventually, you'll get clean, and feel better and be better off for it. The biggest problem is that in 4 years it could all be upended again, and they could cozy back up to China, and make things worse again. It's probably a 2-3 term thing to really get back to a good spot manufacturing wise, and it will take a consistent approach.

That said, it seems unlikely that we're going to see the insane inflation we did last time, so I think Amy bumps in the road we have over the next year or two are going to be fairly inconsequential at midterms time, but who knows. As it sits there's been a ton of progress in defusing various conflicts globally, manufacturers are falling in line with building in the US, and all the doom and gloom that the media screamed about hasn't come to pass. Unless you were friends with Diddy, then you're probably overseas "because of Trump, not because you were involved with Diddy's crimes".

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by ASAP

the absolute best example of this is what happened early on in covid...

to no one surprise... it seems we havent learned anything... bcuz well margins

Our nation is based on capitalism. Shall we abandon that? It defines much of our national identity. The land of riches. The land of milk and honey. The place people go to seek their fortunes.

No business survives without profitability. No jobs would exist. Reinvesting for growth doesn't exist without margins. If the plan is to rein in greed and excess, we are absolutely going about it the wrong way. The concentration of wealth is impossible to deny and accelerating. We always put the fox in charge of the henhouse. And we keep adopting policies that make the situation worse and giving the perpetrators more control.

Yes, we have learned nothing.

[DrVenture]

The anatomy of a trade war:

"China has reacted swiftly to the imposition of 10 percent tariffs on Chinese goods by the United States

They went into effect at 05:01 GMT on Tuesday, and moments later, China’s Ministry of Finance announced it would impose 15 percent tariffs on imports of US liquid natural gas (LNG) and coal and 10 percent levies on oil, farm equipment and some automobiles.

In addition, China’s Ministry of Commerce and its General Administration of Customs said Beijing will begin imposing export controls on some rare earth minerals and metals central to the booming US tech industry and its green energy industry. China also announced measures against some US businesses."

It is also important to note that China chases long term goals and isn't constrained by changes in leadership. Also that our trade deficit with China was lower in 2023 than any time in the previous decade. 2024 numbers are not available yet, but will likely be heavily skewed by U.S. corporations front-loading in anticipation of impending tariff activity.

What we are seeing from all impacted countries is counter-tariffs that eliminate any perceived leverage. I welcome trade talks. Whether or not there is a will to find equitable agreements, and do the necessary (real) work to hammer out outcomes that everyone agrees to, remains to be seen. I tend to agree that "A good compromise is when both parties are dissatisfied".