[Razzy]

How do you guys go through your sreening process? Any site or software?

[Xtabi]

One week until the 30th. Please buy quickly! I need to break the M3 to my wife. Help a brotha out!

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by F1Venom

AAPL closed at an ATH. Seems fitting. I hope you're right though, I'm getting impatient waiting for an opportunity to go bearish. I haven't been a confident bull for a few months now.

All time high hit as predicted...Targeting 2028 SPX ...within next several weeks I bet for that top...will unload all longs soon to get ready for significant int term selloff...probably when Apple announces iPhone 6.

[F1Venom]

Originally Posted by mact3333

All time high hit as predicted...Targeting 2028 SPX ...within next several weeks I bet for that top...will unload all longs soon to get ready for significant int term selloff...probably when Apple announces iPhone 6.

AAPL was absent during the past two years of really strong bull action all around, and now that it's going parabolic I wouldn't be surprised if the market does top out.
The 3D printing sector has also started rallying again.

[F1Venom]

TWTR closed above $48 which is really bullish. I wouldn't be surprised to see it in the high $60s by late September.

[F1Venom]

Originally Posted by F1Venom

TWTR closed above $48 which is really bullish. I wouldn't be surprised to see it in the high $60s by late September.

TWTR sitting at $49.5 right now. Looks great for a run higher.

[Myrder]

I wonder how a Russian invasion of Ukraine will affect the market.

[mact3333]

soooooo....anyone follow me in with the sand fracking plays?...SLCA, HCLP, EMES!!!

[F1Venom]

Originally Posted by mact3333

soooooo....anyone follow me in with the sand fracking plays?...SLCA, HCLP, EMES!!!

Jesus....

[MrPrena]

Originally Posted by mact3333

soooooo....anyone follow me in with the sand fracking plays?...SLCA, HCLP, EMES!!!

Actually, I am follower of F1Venom, because he was more aggressive than I was on TWTR 2mo ago.

[Xtabi]

Originally Posted by Xtabi

Did you guys buy MSFT as I advised? If not please proceed immediately. 8/30 is looming...

Thanks all! Almost back up to the 52wh.

[jasonn]

To build wealth I've been doing real estate but always been curious about the stock market.

Put some funds in the JP Morgan mutual fund in early August. Performed decently but the 1.2% active management fee really annoyed me.

Opened a brokerage account around 2 weeks ago just to see how I would do on my own. Obviously I did some Googling to get the quick and dirty on the stock market. I made the same gains as the mutual funds with 5x less monies. So I just cashed out of the mutual funds and waiting for the funds to enter back into my savings. I don't think I have any special skill to have exceeded the Mutual Fund so easily; it's most likely because (1) it's a crazy Bull market and everything is going up and (2) I had actual stock picks which rise in value much more quickly than the 20 or so ETFs/index funds of the Mutual Fund.

Quick questions guys, do you guys trade very frequently? Does trading a lot create a mess for your accountant at the end of the year? Is it really worth it to trade frequently with the trading fees and short term capital gain tax rates? Are you guys just betting really big to make it all worth it? How many stocks are you guys invested in right now for how much capital?

I have around 10 items right now for my $100k portfolio - 3 ETFs which make up around 40% of the portfolio and the other 7 are stocks. When my mutual funds are cashed out I'd like to add to the portfolio so it's 60% ETF, 15% stocks, and 25% free cash in brokerage account ready to go if needed when I find a stock I really like since I really don't want to be selling of stocks frequently.

Obviously I'm eager to participate fully but it seems lots of fast growers and just companies in general are overpriced and this excessive optimism makes me feel like we are tumbling towards another massive market correction. Looking at the graphs and time periods it seems that way also. I know things are different and our economy is actually strong this time but who knows. I posted some of my analysis on FB to try to start a conversation with others since I have no one to discuss about it but no bites. Hopefully can learn some insights on this thread.


GPRO
It's been up 16% in the past 5 days. But by my calculations the valuation is unjustified so I will pass. In practice this is much more difficult because I'm sure it's going to go up up up up for a period of time before a correction occurs, if any.


SBUX
Earnings up 21.82%
P/E 253.3
1.0194B cash; 2.0481B in long term debt (last year long term debt was 1.2994B so it increased this year, not a good sign)
751.2M shares outstanding = -$1.3694 for each share

"[near the end]...in a growth company, the P/E ratio usually gets bigger, and it may reach absurd and illogical dimensions."

There's already a Starbucks at every block. How much further can Starbucks grow? I'm sure it's a solid company but it cannot possibly keep up with it's P/E ratio.

The counter argument is international growth and also addition more food items to the stores--they recently acquired some food company to help with this implementation.


CMG
The media darling. Pioneer of the "fast-casual" concept. Strong sales. Low debt. What's not to like? The P/E of 59.82. Just like Starbucks, I see Chipotles on every corner already. What's the expansion plan from here on out?

It's clear I already missed the Chipotle party train. Institutional Ownership - 94%. 'nuff said.

Although the P/E ratio is out of this world, at least it is still orbiting Earth. If I can dig up some kind of expansion plan for further aggressive growth I
might take a sip of that Chipotle koolaid.

[MrPrena]

I think you did okay for transferring your fund to discount brokerage. You will be way ahead, because brokerage account will charge $6-12 per trade. Other junk accounts will charge 1-2.5ish%.

Yes, you are correct on bull market. Right now it is easy money due to heavy increase in MS (QE activities). If we see discount rate goes up, I think dividend stock w/ low beta will be ones to watch.
Even McDonald Cheeseburger went up average of 50% from dollar menu. I think real estate and securities investment(s) should do better than McDonald Cheeseburger increase.

1. I trade as often as once a week? I trade as short as once a year. I usually keep 3-4 stock per holding. I do this for a living (and some other types of investments), and I just cannot miss. In terms of trade, I did about 90% gain ratio. It is not because I am good, but because of this long bull market. I do good during the bear market too, but I do not do as good when dP/dt is near zero.

2. If you know what you are doing, it is worth trading frequently. Even on a short technical trade, I think of it as buying a business. I study harder than buying a small sandwich shop. It is least little more transparent than owning a small business. It is also liquid relative to small business. Only downside from owning private equities or private small buisiness is , there is little to no income. (mainly cap gain, or short term gain).

3. If I am sure, I bet more $. I invested 100% of my available fund on few stocks I was 99.9999% sure. It was DDS, S, AMD in the past. It did all well.
However, I had to get a part time job and increase my etail to get my cash flow going.
It paid off great, but we were living like a bum. Imagine holding decent amount of $ on portfolio, and living like a bum for years. It was hard, but the capital gain was well worth it for me at least.
My advice is not to go too deep. Why bet the farm or ranch even if you are 99% sure.

Cap gain tax isn't too bad, but short term investment income tax sucks.

4. I usually do my own taxes, and it is easier electronically. It can download all the data from your brokerage house, and you can do the rest. If I do it manually, it will take 3 pages of Schedule D-1.

5. Currently, I only hold 3 stocks. I am going to buy some options for other stock I am looking at right now. If you diversify too much, it is actually worse for portfolio (if you search U of MI diversification studies, and I agree). Although I do this full time, but I just can't do full detail analysis on 20 stocks.

6. The capital isn't as important as change in % rate gain relative to change in time. I would rather have $2000 on my account and have an exponentially faster rate of growth than have $20,000,000 and a slow ass rate of gain.
However, having 20mil will be easier by diversifying into different vehicles of investments (such as some fixed incomes, securities, commercial real estate, etc) and less speculative/risk than having 2000 with anticipating huge gain to make money.

7. SBUX, GPRO, and CMG is stocks i do not have, and won't buy near future.
CMG has a good business line. I was eating CMG for lunch since 1997 (since it came to Denver first). I like CMG, because they are fast. That is it.
They are faster than any other quality fast foods. By looking at the PE, you are already paying for 5yr future growth on CMG.

SBUX..... I do like SBUX coffee, but I just don't like the rate of growth on same store sales.

GPRO- I think I WILL BE WRONG on this due to this being a cult stock with huge followers, but they only sell camera and its' accessories.

Originally Posted by jasonn

To build wealth I've been doing real estate but always been curious about the stock market.

Put some funds in the JP Morgan mutual fund in early August. Performed decently but the 1.2% active management fee really annoyed me.

Opened a brokerage account around 2 weeks ago just to see how I would do on my own. Obviously I did some Googling to get the quick and dirty on the stock market. I made the same gains as the mutual funds with 5x less monies. So I just cashed out of the mutual funds and waiting for the funds to enter back into my savings. I don't think I have any special skill to have exceeded the Mutual Fund so easily; it's most likely because (1) it's a crazy Bull market and everything is going up and (2) I had actual stock picks which rise in value much more quickly than the 20 or so ETFs/index funds of the Mutual Fund.

Quick questions guys, do you guys trade very frequently? Does trading a lot create a mess for your accountant at the end of the year? Is it really worth it to trade frequently with the trading fees and short term capital gain tax rates? Are you guys just betting really big to make it all worth it? How many stocks are you guys invested in right now for how much capital?

I have around 10 items right now for my $100k portfolio - 3 ETFs which make up around 40% of the portfolio and the other 7 are stocks. When my mutual funds are cashed out I'd like to add to the portfolio so it's 60% ETF, 15% stocks, and 25% free cash in brokerage account ready to go if needed when I find a stock I really like since I really don't want to be selling of stocks frequently.

Obviously I'm eager to participate fully but it seems lots of fast growers and just companies in general are overpriced and this excessive optimism makes me feel like we are tumbling towards another massive market correction. Looking at the graphs and time periods it seems that way also. I know things are different and our economy is actually strong this time but who knows. I posted some of my analysis on FB to try to start a conversation with others since I have no one to discuss about it but no bites. Hopefully can learn some insights on this thread.


GPRO
It's been up 16% in the past 5 days. But by my calculations the valuation is unjustified so I will pass. In practice this is much more difficult because I'm sure it's going to go up up up up for a period of time before a correction occurs, if any.


SBUX
Earnings up 21.82%
P/E 253.3
1.0194B cash; 2.0481B in long term debt (last year long term debt was 1.2994B so it increased this year, not a good sign)
751.2M shares outstanding = -$1.3694 for each share

"[near the end]...in a growth company, the P/E ratio usually gets bigger, and it may reach absurd and illogical dimensions."

There's already a Starbucks at every block. How much further can Starbucks grow? I'm sure it's a solid company but it cannot possibly keep up with it's P/E ratio.

The counter argument is international growth and also addition more food items to the stores--they recently acquired some food company to help with this implementation.


CMG
The media darling. Pioneer of the "fast-casual" concept. Strong sales. Low debt. What's not to like? The P/E of 59.82. Just like Starbucks, I see Chipotles on every corner already. What's the expansion plan from here on out?

It's clear I already missed the Chipotle party train. Institutional Ownership - 94%. 'nuff said.

Although the P/E ratio is out of this world, at least it is still orbiting Earth. If I can dig up some kind of expansion plan for further aggressive growth I
might take a sip of that Chipotle koolaid.

[Ben2k9]

Originally Posted by jasonn

I don't think I have any special skill to have exceeded the Mutual Fund so easily; it's most likely because (1) it's a crazy Bull market and everything is going up and (2) I had actual stock picks which rise in value much more quickly than the 20 or so ETFs/index funds of the Mutual Fund.

Quick questions guys, do you guys trade very frequently? Does trading a lot create a mess for your accountant at the end of the year? Is it really worth it to trade frequently with the trading fees and short term capital gain tax rates? Are you guys just betting really big to make it all worth it? How many stocks are you guys invested in right now for how much capital?

You are essentially buying high beta stocks (stocks with more octane than the overall market). This works until it doesn't, and when it doesn't these stocks pull back HARD

here's the formula for long term investment success: own a basket of high quality companies. At least 20. This is roughly the minimum for diversification. Don't trade them unless you have a thoroughly researched method for doing so.

You can save yourself the trouble of picking those companies by buying an ETF or fund. If it sounds like back to square 1, it is. Trading stocks successfully isn't easy. Use limited capital during your learning process to avoid costly mistakes. Learning process takes many years of consistent study and experience. MANY YEARS. There are no shortcuts. good luck!

[jasonn]

Originally Posted by MrPrena

I think you did okay for transferring your fund to discount brokerage. You will be way ahead, because brokerage account will charge $6-12 per trade. Other junk accounts will charge 1-2.5ish%.

Yes, you are correct on bull market. Right now it is easy money due to heavy increase in MS (QE activities). If we see discount rate goes up, I think dividend stock w/ low beta will be ones to watch.
Even McDonald Cheeseburger went up average of 50% from dollar menu. I think real estate and securities investment(s) should do better than McDonald Cheeseburger increase.

1. I trade as often as once a week? I trade as short as once a year. I usually keep 3-4 stock per holding. I do this for a living (and some other types of investments), and I just cannot miss. In terms of trade, I did about 90% gain ratio. It is not because I am good, but because of this long bull market. I do good during the bear market too, but I do not do as good when dP/dt is near zero.

2. If you know what you are doing, it is worth trading frequently. Even on a short technical trade, I think of it as buying a business. I study harder than buying a small sandwich shop. It is least little more transparent than owning a small business. It is also liquid relative to small business. Only downside from owning private equities or private small buisiness is , there is little to no income. (mainly cap gain, or short term gain).

3. If I am sure, I bet more $. I invested 100% of my available fund on few stocks I was 99.9999% sure. It was DDS, S, AMD in the past. It did all well.
However, I had to get a part time job and increase my etail to get my cash flow going.
It paid off great, but we were living like a bum. Imagine holding decent amount of $ on portfolio, and living like a bum for years. It was hard, but the capital gain was well worth it for me at least.
My advice is not to go too deep. Why bet the farm or ranch even if you are 99% sure.

Cap gain tax isn't too bad, but short term investment income tax sucks.

4. I usually do my own taxes, and it is easier electronically. It can download all the data from your brokerage house, and you can do the rest. If I do it manually, it will take 3 pages of Schedule D-1.

5. Currently, I only hold 3 stocks. I am going to buy some options for other stock I am looking at right now. If you diversify too much, it is actually worse for portfolio (if you search U of MI diversification studies, and I agree). Although I do this full time, but I just can't do full detail analysis on 20 stocks.

6. The capital isn't as important as change in % rate gain relative to change in time. I would rather have $2000 on my account and have an exponentially faster rate of growth than have $20,000,000 and a slow ass rate of gain.
However, having 20mil will be easier by diversifying into different vehicles of investments (such as some fixed incomes, securities, commercial real estate, etc) and less speculative/risk than having 2000 with anticipating huge gain to make money.

7. SBUX, GPRO, and CMG is stocks i do not have, and won't buy near future.
CMG has a good business line. I was eating CMG for lunch since 1997 (since it came to Denver first). I like CMG, because they are fast. That is it.
They are faster than any other quality fast foods. By looking at the PE, you are already paying for 5yr future growth on CMG.

SBUX..... I do like SBUX coffee, but I just don't like the rate of growth on same store sales.

GPRO- I think I WILL BE WRONG on this due to this being a cult stock with huge followers, but they only sell camera and its' accessories.

Thanks MrPrena for outlining your thoughts. Haha, I wasn't sure if you were serious about the 50% gain / McDonalds cheeseburger example until I read further and you mentioned getting a 90% gain. Wow, to be able to shrug off a 50% increase and make it look like a poor result is really something. For me, I'd be extremely pleased with a 10% gain in the stock market. Real estate wise, on my various holdings, I'm looking at between 8-25% annual return on my down payment after debt servicing, without considering the rise in property value. You are certainly in a completely different league. My best performer is half of what you consider to be a poor performance.

If I am distilling your post correctly, it is better to bet big on a few stocks that you are very confident in; once you know what you are doing of course and have thoroughly researched the companies.

Originally Posted by Ben2k9

You are essentially buying high beta stocks (stocks with more octane than the overall market). This works until it doesn't, and when it doesn't these stocks pull back HARD

here's the formula for long term investment success: own a basket of high quality companies. At least 20. This is roughly the minimum for diversification. Don't trade them unless you have a thoroughly researched method for doing so.

You can save yourself the trouble of picking those companies by buying an ETF or fund. If it sounds like back to square 1, it is. Trading stocks successfully isn't easy. Use limited capital during your learning process to avoid costly mistakes. Learning process takes many years of consistent study and experience. MANY YEARS. There are no shortcuts. good luck!

Thank you Ben2k9 for your forewarnings. I have taken them to heart. I don't mind putting all of my designated stock funds in an ETF. I might reserve 5-10% to have some fun. Just wondering, how long do you think this bull market will last?

I am not sure how you ascertained that I was purchasing high beta stocks, but I will have to take another look at those companies. I was careful to purchase companies with, among other factors, low debt, low institutional ownership, increase in earnings each year for 5 years, and a low-ish P/E. Today is the first I have heard of the term "beta", which both you and MrPrena had mentioned, so I appreciate the introduction to a term representing a stock's volatility, a variable, I'm sure among many, that I had not considered previously.

[MrPrena]

Sorry for misunderstanding.
I meant 90% as 9/10 trade has been all gains since 2006.
Don't give me too much credit for it during 2007-2009. I had to bag hold few stocks till it was on positive side.

edit to add:
Yeah, Beta is basically a "multiples" of risk volatility.
Depends on which school (Econ or Finance), they will approach you with capm systemetic risk, or basically a scaler multiple of risk respect to change in indices.
For an good example would be if "beta" is 2, and the stock is in S&P500. If S&P500 went up 5% in 1month, you should "expect" the stock to go up 10%. If it went up lower than 2% , it didn't do good.
If S&P500 went up 5% and if your stock went up 8%, you actually did not beat the market.
Here are basic models which some "finance for dummies" classes teaches.
http://quant.stackexchange.com/quest...-line-straight
http://www.fundmanagersoftware.com/h...lculation.html
http://www.fundmanagersoftware.com/h...lculation.html
http://www.finquiz.com/blog/2013/04/...h-derivatives/
http://www.columbia.edu/~ks20/FE-Not...Notes-CAPM.pdf

In terms of trade, I did about 90% gain ratio.

Originally Posted by jasonn

Thanks MrPrena for outlining your thoughts. Haha, I wasn't sure if you were serious about the 50% gain / McDonalds cheeseburger example until I read further and you mentioned getting a 90% gain. Wow, to be able to shrug off a 50% increase and make it look like a poor result is really something. For me, I'd be extremely pleased with a 10% gain in the stock market. Real estate wise, on my various holdings, I'm looking at between 8-25% annual return on my down payment after debt servicing, without considering the rise in property value. You are certainly in a completely different league. My best performer is half of what you consider to be a poor performance.

If I am distilling your post correctly, it is better to bet big on a few stocks that you are very confident in; once you know what you are doing of course and have thoroughly researched the companies.

[jasonn]

Originally Posted by MrPrena

Sorry for misunderstanding.
I meant 90% as 9/10 trade has been all gains since 2006.
Don't give me too much credit for it during 2007-2009. I had to bag hold few stocks till it was on positive side.

edit to add:
Yeah, Beta is basically a "multiples" of risk volatility.
Depends on which school (Econ or Finance), they will approach you with capm systemetic risk, or basically a scaler multiple of risk respect to change in indices.
For an good example would be if "beta" is 2, and the stock is in S&P500. If S&P500 went up 5% in 1month, you should "expect" the stock to go up 10%. If it went up lower than 2% , it didn't do good.
If S&P500 went up 5% and if your stock went up 8%, you actually did not beat the market.
Here are basic models which some "finance for dummies" classes teaches.
http://quant.stackexchange.com/quest...-line-straight
http://www.fundmanagersoftware.com/h...lculation.html
http://www.fundmanagersoftware.com/h...lculation.html
http://www.finquiz.com/blog/2013/04/...h-derivatives/
http://www.columbia.edu/~ks20/FE-Not...Notes-CAPM.pdf

Thanks again MrPrena; I checked out all of those finance for dummies links and it's gibberish to me currently hahaha.

For your example, the stock increase of 8% technically still did better than the S&P 5%; it's just that for the risk you took, it should have done better right?

[MrPrena]

Well, if beta was 1 and S&P500 gain was 5%, 8% gain on one specific stock is consider beating the market.

Well, if beta was 2 and S&P500 gain was 5%, 8% gain on one specific stock is not consider beating the market. You took 2x the risk than the index/indices market. Therefore you should have 2x more gain.

Originally Posted by jasonn

Thanks again MrPrena; I checked out all of those finance for dummies links and it's gibberish to me currently hahaha.

For your example, the stock increase of 8% technically still did better than the S&P 5%; it's just that for the risk you took, it should have done better right?

[jasonn]

Originally Posted by MrPrena

Well, if beta was 1 and S&P500 gain was 5%, 8% gain on one specific stock is consider beating the market.

Well, if beta was 2 and S&P500 gain was 5%, 8% gain on one specific stock is not consider beating the market. You took 2x the risk than the index/indices market. Therefore you should have 2x more gain.

gotcha,

I just looked at my stocks' betas, they are all below 1 except two which are 1.18 and 1.09. Those are also the only two in the red currently.

[jasonn]

Hey so my next question is if anyone here ever buy stocks based on acquisition announcements.

Like recently:

the Amazon acquisition of Twitch

the Burger King acquisition of Tim Hortons

the potential Activision acquisition of Take-Two

if you do buy, do you typically buy the company that is being acquired? or both? or?

many thanks as always.

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by jasonn

Hey so my next question is if anyone here ever buy stocks based on acquisition announcements.

Like recently:

the Amazon acquisition of Twitch

the Burger King acquisition of Tim Hortons

the potential Activision acquisition of Take-Two

if you do buy, do you typically buy the company that is being acquired? or both? or?

many thanks as always.

You buy before the news comes out. Twitch was also never a public company so you couldn't have bought it.

[MrPrena]

M&A behaves very similar to Ricardian Trade Model.

MOST of the time, smaller companies who are getting acquired or merged together gains. HOWEVER,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, when the company pays about < ~28% premium, it is actually not a premium. If you look at M&A or LBOs, it is usually just giving tax premium to the share holders.

CASE EX (again example): You bought TTWO for $5/sr few mo ago, and you want to keep that for a year to just pay the Capital gains tax. Mo after you purchased TTWO, ATVI offered $7/sr. WHen the merger finalize in 5mo (again ex), you only held the stock for ~6month. It means, you have to pay investment income taxes (not cap gain taxes). The premium ATVI gave to shareholder are mainly going to IRS' pocket. You basically didn't make too much $$ as you wanted.

Originally Posted by jasonn

Hey so my next question is if anyone here ever buy stocks based on acquisition announcements.

Like recently:

the Amazon acquisition of Twitch

the Burger King acquisition of Tim Hortons

the potential Activision acquisition of Take-Two

if you do buy, do you typically buy the company that is being acquired? or both? or?

many thanks as always.