Stock market tips and experiences

MrPrena · 09-03-2014, 03:49 AM

Sprint....

jasonn · 09-03-2014, 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrPrena

M&A behaves very similar to Ricardian Trade Model.

MOST of the time, smaller companies who are getting acquired or merged together gains. HOWEVER,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, when the company pays about < ~28% premium, it is actually not a premium. If you look at M&A or LBOs, it is usually just giving tax premium to the share holders.

CASE EX (again example): You bought TTWO for $5/sr few mo ago, and you want to keep that for a year to just pay the Capital gains tax. Mo after you purchased TTWO, ATVI offered $7/sr. WHen the merger finalize in 5mo (again ex), you only held the stock for ~6month. It means, you have to pay investment income taxes (not cap gain taxes). The premium ATVI gave to shareholder are mainly going to IRS' pocket. You basically didn't make too much $$ as you wanted.

Thank you very much again MrPrena. Very insightful and helpful. Much appreciated.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrPrena

Sprint....

haha lost a lot on AAPL today...if it drops more --> time to buy?

F1Venom · 09-03-2014, 03:06 PM

AAPL could be entering a downtrend, however with its event this week, this could just be noise.

MrPrena · 09-04-2014, 04:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrPrena

I couldn't get in on a price I wanted, but bought AMD on Wed for under 3.80 across all my acct.
122mil shares traded on Thurs up 2.36% on a huge down day.
2.36% gain isn't much, but 122mil traded.... Something is up.

3.91 0.09(2.36%) Jul 31, 4:00PM EDT
Volume: 112,163,796
Avg Vol (3m): 28,437,200

Held AMD for about 35days, and ~11% is all I got...
I need to wait till OCT for this one to move.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=AMD&m=2014-10

RandomHero · 09-04-2014, 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrPrena

Well, if beta was 1 and S&P500 gain was 5%, 8% gain on one specific stock is consider beating the market.

Well, if beta was 2 and S&P500 gain was 5%, 8% gain on one specific stock is not consider beating the market. You took 2x the risk than the index/indices market. Therefore you should have 2x more gain.

A lot more to it than that. For example: what if the R-Squared were .10?

Quote:

Originally Posted by jasonn

gotcha,

I just looked at my stocks' betas, they are all below 1 except two which are 1.18 and 1.09. Those are also the only two in the red currently.

A perfect example of why a beta measurement, by itself, is of little to no significance to the educated investor.

MrPrena · 09-04-2014, 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RandomHero

A lot more to it than that. For example: what if the R-Squared were .10?

A perfect example of why a beta measurement, by itself, is of little to no significance to the educated investor.

NOW, we are talking to real technical trader here.

MrPrena · 09-11-2014, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrPrena

Sprint....

Sprint .....

Xtabi · 09-11-2014, 10:48 PM

Have you guys been taking up positions in MSFT? I've been giving you the heads-up for weeks now!

MrPrena · 09-12-2014, 04:15 PM

I knew AMD will see a dip, before pre-earning run up. Just that -2.9% today on no news kinda makes me unhappy. 4% gain in 1mo on AMD during historical bull market is just stupid. Even people who has no idea about stock invested in GPRO, TSLA, and FB made more than I did (comparing only to AMD) Still gonna hold till Mid OCT.

If there is no spike during OCT, AMG for AMD campaign is a bust.

Sprint was another free giveaway from the wall street (just like Twitter purchased before world cup this year).
Of course Iphone6 will support triband.
Of course Sprint will be agressive with pricing after they decided not to go with Acquiring TMUS.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrPrena

My wife wants a C63AMG. Thankfully she doesn't care if it is non blk ser.
We are calling the AMG campaign a.

AMD for AMG

F1Venom · 09-12-2014, 04:24 PM

Looking for SLV to have a strong flush to the $15s. I'd go long only on a sell-climax. SPX is in a short term downtrend.

Patrick303 · 09-15-2014, 02:15 PM

UGH! Anyone else seeing heavy selling in their stocks? The fund managers are selling some of their high growth holdings and taking profits to raise capital for the impending Alibaba IPO on Friday. My Facebook shares have fallen 5% so far today!

jasonn · 09-15-2014, 06:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Patrick719

UGH! Anyone else seeing heavy selling in their stocks? The fund managers are selling some of their high growth holdings and taking profits to raise capital for the impending Alibaba IPO on Friday. My Facebook shares have fallen 5% so far today!

I got hit hard with AMZN.

I'm going to pick up some FB when it hits 70/72.

Also Netflix although I haven't determined an entry point for that one yet.

LUV is singlehandly keeping my entire portfolio in the green

F1Venom · 09-15-2014, 07:07 PM

Tech got sold off pretty hard today. Might've been because of the alibaba ipo coming soon.

MrPrena · 09-15-2014, 07:19 PM

TSLA warning from ANALyst was a huge contribution to biotech/momentum stock's fall.
It was no brainer, but I think it will head up "little" higher. TOo many people on the sideline right now. Only momentum stock I've bought this year was Pandora and Twitter.

I am sticking with beat up stocks.

Just my opinion that people will do better on negative EPS stocks than a stock with extremely high P/E right now. People are looking for next TSLA which people DO NOT know about.

NemesisX · 09-18-2014, 11:51 PM

How does everyone feel about alibaba? I missed the boat on twitter and go pro. The hype surrounding alibaba seems to be even greater. I'm tempted to gamble a substantial amount on alibaba but I'd like to hear some thoughts first.

MrPrena · 09-19-2014, 04:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NemesisX

How does everyone feel about alibaba? I missed the boat on twitter and go pro. The hype surrounding alibaba seems to be even greater. I'm tempted to gamble a substantial amount on alibaba but I'd like to hear some thoughts first.

320m shares will be available upon hitting the secondary market.
At least there are less probability that specialist/MM's hiking the damn price to 90/sr on open.

My wife is willing to only bet 200-500shares (depends on opening price upon hitting the 2nd mkt). I would rather bet on RAD at 5.00-5.10.
We are too heavy on other stocks as is.
Everytime I see "IBs, insides, and initial investors are selling, street buys" kinda makes it less attractive to IPO. BTW, i was all over IPOs during 1999-2000.

MetsFan · 09-19-2014, 10:43 AM

How about YHOO? Do you guys think they will gain much from the BABA IPO?

mact3333 · 09-19-2014, 10:55 AM

Forget about BABA for now...pretrading already at 84-86...gonna pop...gotta wait for pullback before even thinking about this one.

Not interested over long term...at the open, going to be valued higher than AMZN and prob as much as FB....crazy.

mact3333 · 09-19-2014, 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MetsFan

How about YHOO? Do you guys think they will gain much from the BABA IPO?

I like your thinking..the smart way to play BABA...I got in YHOO awhile back thinking same thing.

If BABA starts trading around 85-90, its mkt cap will be close to 200B...YHOO owns 25% of BABA correct?...YHOO mkt cap currently 41B...hmm...do the math...that means as of this am, YHOO has no inherent value without the BABA ownership?..come on we all know this isn't true...gotta be worth 10-20B without the BABA stake...I like the math...

mact3333 · 09-19-2014, 11:58 AM

LOL...BABA trading at 98.00 on level 2....YHOO owners gonna be happy.

PSUSMU · 09-19-2014, 12:03 PM

In BABA @ $92.70, out @ $99

MrPrena · 09-19-2014, 01:47 PM

"Yahoo, which owns 22.4%, said it plans to sell 121.7 million shares, equivalent to a 4.9% stake. "

So, YHOO would have 17.5% of the share. With the valuation of BABA at 227b, yahoo would have 39.7b.
With debt, cash position, PLUS BABA shares sold, YAHOO can be close to privatizing themselves.

09-03-2014, 03:49 AM	#4445
MrPrena Captain 1590 Rep 803 Posts Drives: BMW Hyundai Nissan Join Date: Jan 2014 Location: TB iTrader: (0)	Sprint.... __________________ Beware of Jeff Oliver the fraud at Highland Expedition Outfitters (aka HEO or HEOutfitters) located in Cosby TN.
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09-03-2014, 03:06 PM	#4447
F1Venom Banned 76 Rep 961 Posts Drives: ZCP E90 M3 Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: USA iTrader: (0)	AAPL could be entering a downtrend, however with its event this week, this could just be noise.
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09-11-2014, 10:48 PM	#4452
Xtabi Colonel 1760 Rep 2,162 Posts Drives: 2016 M3 Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Ohio iTrader: (0)	Have you guys been taking up positions in MSFT? I've been giving you the heads-up for weeks now! __________________ 2016 F80 \| MG/SO \| DCT \| Adaptive M Suspension \| 19" Black 437M Wheels \| CF Roof \| CF Trim
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09-12-2014, 04:24 PM	#4454
F1Venom Banned 76 Rep 961 Posts Drives: ZCP E90 M3 Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: USA iTrader: (0)	Looking for SLV to have a strong flush to the $15s. I'd go long only on a sell-climax. SPX is in a short term downtrend.
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09-15-2014, 02:15 PM	#4455
Patrick303 Lieutenant 722 Rep 475 Posts Drives: 2024 Porsche Taycan 4S Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: Denver, CO iTrader: (2) Garage List 2024 Porsche Taycan 4S [10.00] 2017 Ducati Monster ... [0.00]	UGH! Anyone else seeing heavy selling in their stocks? The fund managers are selling some of their high growth holdings and taking profits to raise capital for the impending Alibaba IPO on Friday. My Facebook shares have fallen 5% so far today! __________________ 2024 Porsche Taycan 4S 2017 Ducati Monster 821
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09-15-2014, 07:07 PM	#4457
F1Venom Banned 76 Rep 961 Posts Drives: ZCP E90 M3 Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: USA iTrader: (0)	Tech got sold off pretty hard today. Might've been because of the alibaba ipo coming soon.
	Appreciate 0 Quote

09-15-2014, 07:19 PM	#4458
MrPrena Captain 1590 Rep 803 Posts Drives: BMW Hyundai Nissan Join Date: Jan 2014 Location: TB iTrader: (0)	TSLA warning from ANALyst was a huge contribution to biotech/momentum stock's fall. It was no brainer, but I think it will head up "little" higher. TOo many people on the sideline right now. Only momentum stock I've bought this year was Pandora and Twitter. I am sticking with beat up stocks. Just my opinion that people will do better on negative EPS stocks than a stock with extremely high P/E right now. People are looking for next TSLA which people DO NOT know about. __________________ Beware of Jeff Oliver the fraud at Highland Expedition Outfitters (aka HEO or HEOutfitters) located in Cosby TN.
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09-18-2014, 11:51 PM	#4459
NemesisX Captain 321 Rep 905 Posts Drives: '19 Infiniti Q60S Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: TX iTrader: (0)	How does everyone feel about alibaba? I missed the boat on twitter and go pro. The hype surrounding alibaba seems to be even greater. I'm tempted to gamble a substantial amount on alibaba but I'd like to hear some thoughts first.
	Appreciate 0 Quote

09-19-2014, 10:43 AM	#4461
MetsFan Lieutenant 97 Rep 440 Posts Drives: 2013 G37x Join Date: May 2009 Location: MA iTrader: (1) Garage List 2007 BMW 328xi [0.00]	How about YHOO? Do you guys think they will gain much from the BABA IPO?
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09-19-2014, 10:55 AM	#4462
mact3333 Captain 126 Rep 876 Posts Drives: 16' YMB/Blk F82 Join Date: Mar 2011 Location: Portland Area iTrader: (1)	Forget about BABA for now...pretrading already at 84-86...gonna pop...gotta wait for pullback before even thinking about this one. Not interested over long term...at the open, going to be valued higher than AMZN and prob as much as FB....crazy.
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09-19-2014, 11:58 AM	#4464
mact3333 Captain 126 Rep 876 Posts Drives: 16' YMB/Blk F82 Join Date: Mar 2011 Location: Portland Area iTrader: (1)	LOL...BABA trading at 98.00 on level 2....YHOO owners gonna be happy.
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09-19-2014, 12:03 PM	#4465
PSUSMU Captain 99 Rep 985 Posts Drives: 2008 Porsche 911 Carrera S Join Date: Jun 2012 Location: Falls Church/Merrifield, VA iTrader: (3)	In BABA @ $92.70, out @ $99 __________________ RSI, LLC \| Fender Rolling \| Suspension \| Engine \| Other Stuff Last edited by PSUSMU; 09-19-2014 at 12:15 PM..
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09-19-2014, 01:47 PM	#4466
MrPrena Captain 1590 Rep 803 Posts Drives: BMW Hyundai Nissan Join Date: Jan 2014 Location: TB iTrader: (0)	"Yahoo, which owns 22.4%, said it plans to sell 121.7 million shares, equivalent to a 4.9% stake. " So, YHOO would have 17.5% of the share. With the valuation of BABA at 227b, yahoo would have 39.7b. With debt, cash position, PLUS BABA shares sold, YAHOO can be close to privatizing themselves. __________________ Beware of Jeff Oliver the fraud at Highland Expedition Outfitters (aka HEO or HEOutfitters) located in Cosby TN.
	Appreciate 0 Quote