[MrPrena]

It would be really nice if QCOM and BLX gets into bidding war.

Cross licensing? Non-transferable? LOL. Analysts got this wrong.

Originally Posted by NemesisX

Yeah that's understandable. The drop to 2.25 last month scared me a little. I was down nearly 17% at the time so I'm thrilled to have made even a marginal profit thanks to AMD's recent highly speculative mini-run.

By the way I was looking at some of my older posts in this thread and I'm absolutely kicking myself for not jumping on Hershey when I mentioned it. It was near 52 week lows at around $91 or $92 per share several months back (which was my main reason for suggesting it at the time, along with "who doesn't like chocolate?" ). Since then? +20%, not to mention a healthy 2% dividend yield

This is the fatal flaw of a novice investor. Much of my rationale for buying and selling stocks is highly speculative. It's legalized gambling at this point, but it's been a good ride so far.

[RandomHero]

Originally Posted by NemesisX

This isn't my money but I mentioned 6 or 7 months back that my dad enlisted the services of an Edward Jones advisor after a glowing recommendation from his colleague. I figured it'd be interesting to update you all on how she's doing compared to, say, the S&P500, over that 7 month period.


S&P 500: +4.64%
Edward Jones (not including fees): +1.6%
Edward Jones (after advisor fees): -0.8%

So after fees 7 months in she's basically lost him $4k... Granted, my dad specifically told her that he has a very high risk tolerance with this money because it's a little under 10% of his portfolio, and 7 months isn't too long term, but it's fun to keep track of nonetheless.

One caveat is that his adviser chose a lot of dividend-paying stocks like verizon (4.6%), pfizer (3.4%), coca cola (2.8%), XRAY (0.50%), and occidental (3.70%) (bad timing, I know), and I'm not exactly sure what the dividend schedule is for those stocks, so those EJ numbers might bump up a bit once we hit a full year, all else being equal.

She also bought large amounts of the following mutual funds: American Funds Washington Mutual A (AWSHX) (2.47%) and American Funds Europacific Growth A (1.57%). In terms of capital change both have either gone down slightly or roughly stayed the same compared to the S&P500, but the net effect of everything (stocks, municipal bonds, mutual funds) is reflected in those overall numbers I posted.

So not a terrific start for her. And her performance not including fees is totally irrelevant. If she's going to charge an absurd front end sales load on every purchase, she needs to be able to beat the S&P500 by at least that much to make her services worthwhile.

Obviously an ETF that tracks the S&P500 almost always has a small fee of its own, but it's so small that it doesn't change the picture.

Personally I've always been leery about the value that FAs can actually add and this EJ advisor's performance thus far has only corroborated that notion. We'll see how she does 1 year in, 1.5 years in, 2 years in, etc.

This post was my laugh for the day. Thank you. Posts like these are what make this thread so entertaining.

[NemesisX]

Originally Posted by MrPrena

It would be really nice if QCOM and BLX gets into bidding war.

Cross licensing? Non-transferable? LOL. Analysts got this wrong.

You're tempting me to get back in right now

I'm probably going to wait it out on the sidelines. I shouldn't be too greedy, especially when I don't really know what I'm doing.

[MrPrena]

Originally Posted by NemesisX

You're tempting me to get back in right now

I'm probably going to wait it out on the sidelines. I shouldn't be too greedy, especially when I don't really know what I'm doing.

Smart move.
AMD was one of my biggest joy of Nov2012-Jan2014 (cap gain), but has been pain in my @ss this year by getting back in.

[Dalko43]

Originally Posted by mact3333

This thread is meant for stock mkt trading based on technicals and other rational theories....not meant for blindly making recommendations based on air...we will all be right and wrong, but here lets at least have a reason why we think the way we do.

I posted this chart 1-2 wks ago and this was one of the reasons a long position was reasonable at the time.

the % of SPX stocks trading below the 50 day moving avg can sniff out bottoms...every time it goes below 30% usually marks a bottom...also need to watch blow off tops in the VIX(watch if its trading above 2 standard deviations above the mean).

I usually post on trading boards but since I spend alot of time on here, I will start a thread here.

http://screencast.com/t/3kiho4tgNrw

Anyone who claims to know when a market will bottom out, through technical analysis or other methods, should not be given any credibility. There is no historical evidence that technical analysis can accurately predict market trends.

Also, if anyone is looking for stock-picking or market-timing advice, this forum is not the "ideal" place for that.

[Dalko43]

Originally Posted by NemesisX

This isn't my money but I mentioned 6 or 7 months back that my dad enlisted the services of an Edward Jones advisor after a glowing recommendation from his colleague. I figured it'd be interesting to update you all on how she's doing compared to, say, the S&P500, over that 7 month period.


S&P 500: +4.64%
Edward Jones (not including fees): +1.6%
Edward Jones (after advisor fees): -0.8%

So after fees 7 months in she's basically lost him $4k... Granted, my dad specifically told her that he has a very high risk tolerance with this money because it's a little under 10% of his portfolio, and 7 months isn't too long term, but it's fun to keep track of nonetheless.

One caveat is that his adviser chose a lot of dividend-paying stocks like verizon (4.6%), pfizer (3.4%), coca cola (2.8%), XRAY (0.50%), and occidental (3.70%) (bad timing, I know), and I'm not exactly sure what the dividend schedule is for those stocks, so those EJ numbers might bump up a bit once we hit a full year, all else being equal.

She also bought large amounts of the following mutual funds: American Funds Washington Mutual A (AWSHX) (2.47%) and American Funds Europacific Growth A (1.57%). In terms of capital change both have either gone down slightly or roughly stayed the same compared to the S&P500, but the net effect of everything (stocks, municipal bonds, mutual funds) is reflected in those overall numbers I posted.

So not a terrific start for her. And her performance not including fees is totally irrelevant. If she's going to charge an absurd front end sales load on every purchase, she needs to be able to beat the S&P500 by at least that much to make her services worthwhile.

Obviously an ETF that tracks the S&P500 almost always has a small fee of its own, but it's so small that it doesn't change the picture.

Personally I've always been leery about the value that FAs can actually add and this EJ advisor's performance thus far has only corroborated that notion. We'll see how she does 1 year in, 1.5 years in, 2 years in, etc.

Sad and funny story all at the same time.

On a related note, if you are paying anything more than .2-.4 percentage points (in fees and expenses combined) for basic market exposure (broad market indexes, large-cap equity funds)...you are doing it wrong.

There is so much that can be had for so little.

[gatorfast]

Originally Posted by Dalko43

Anyone who claims to know when a market will bottom out, through technical analysis or other methods, should not be given any credibility. There is no historical evidence that technical analysis can accurately predict market trends.

Also, if anyone is looking for stock-picking or market-timing advice, this forum is not the "ideal" place for that.

Great contribution to this thread on market technical analysis

[Dalko43]

Originally Posted by gatorfast

Great contribution to this thread on market technical analysis

Technical analysis is moderately successful at identifying statistical trends in a market's past performance, but it has never been used to successfully and consistently identify when/where market corrections will take place in advance.

More often than not, it is used as marketing term by brokers and firms to impress naive clients.

If there truly were some technical metric (like P/E ratio's) that was able to predict bull and bear markets, everyone would be using that method to time the markets. Truth be told, everyone and their mother has a different opinion on the future of the markets...except for stock brokers.

According to stock brokers, it's always a good time to buy (got to love those commission salaries)...

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by Dalko43

Anyone who claims to know when a market will bottom out, through technical analysis or other methods, should not be given any credibility. There is no historical evidence that technical analysis can accurately predict market trends.

Also, if anyone is looking for stock-picking or market-timing advice, this forum is not the "ideal" place for that.

Sooo, when I picked the top on volatile stocks to the penny in the past it was by random chance?...

Its true there are no systems that are 100 % accurate, but some are better than others...kinda like when I said we would make new all time highs 4 years ago when people were bearish.

You have been most helpful so far, keep it up...

For a minute, I thought a BMW board would be the perfect place to get market timing and stock tips....thx bro

[RandomHero]

Originally Posted by gatorfast

Great contribution to this thread on market technical analysis

I absolutely agree with what you said….just without the sarcasm.

He’s provided an opinion relevant to the thread topic that is supported by an overwhelming amount of factual evidence and research. To me, that’s the definition of a “Great contribution.”

I’ll let you get back to your stock market wizardry though.

[MrPrena]

Let me be the first to say, I love technical analysis.

It is a great way to find out when I can find the good entry and exit point/price, relative to time, volume, and dv. However, there are so many "eyeball" "draw a cockeye line" Technical Analysis. People who actually does the real TA, calculate the metrics of it.

Yes, Technical Analysis will be totally off when there is some crazy stuff or miss earnings by 10% type of event. However, it is as important as other indication/indicators such as Fundamental.

Back in the 50's specialist/market maker will be standing on NYSE and traded stock based on supply and demand. Now, they use computer and algorithm to predict the market based on every variables and factors out there.
Therefore Technical Analysis followers are getting more accurate and accurate by time.

Investing Solely based on TA is just ridiculous, but dismissing TA is even more ridiculous.

[Dalko43]

Originally Posted by mact3333

Sooo, when I picked the top on volatile stocks to the penny in the past it was by random chance?...

Its true there are no systems that are 100 % accurate, but some are better than others...kinda like when I said we would make new all time highs 4 years ago when people were bearish.

You have been most helpful so far, keep it up...

For a minute, I thought a BMW board would be the perfect place to get market timing and stock tips....thx bro

So you are saying you have always picked winning assets? You must have a the midas touch then....what the hell are you doing on this forum??

Go put that 'special' skill of yours to use and work for some big name firm.

Everyone thinks their stock-picking methods are effective...until they aren't and the next bear market takes everyone by surprise.

Plenty of people, far smarter and far more dedicated than either your or I have tried to apply technical analysis towards a long-term market strategy...the % of fund managers and stock-pickers who have consistently outperformed the market on a long-term basis, are few to none...and those few that do consistently outperform do so mostly because of chance.

Edit: Please note that the keyword in all this is consistency. It's nice if you have used this strategy once in the past to great effect...but until you have demonstrated that your methods can consistently achieve certain results, you've got nothing special going on.

[Dalko43]

Originally Posted by MrPrena

Investing Solely based on TA is just ridiculous, but dismissing TA is even more ridiculous.

Don't get me wrong. I believe that technical analysis has its role in the financial world...a role that is totally unrelated to stock-picking and portfolio strategies.

If you want to increase your chances of getting returns on your investments that outperform or at least equal market performance, you should:

1) look for low-cost funds with broad market exposure (typically index funds are the best in this category)

2) look for funds with low-manager turn-over

3) stick to your plan (ie dont sell when the market is down and try to load up on riskier assets when the market is rising)

There are plenty of academic papers that list low cost, asset allocation, and manager experience as some of the driving factors behind portfolio performance.

[gatorfast]

Originally Posted by RandomHero

I absolutely agree with what you said….just without the sarcasm.

He’s provided an opinion relevant to the thread topic that is supported by an overwhelming amount of factual evidence and research. To me, that’s the definition of a “Great contribution.”

I’ll let you get back to your stock market wizardry though.

Overwhelming amount of factual evidence . Guess we didn't read the same post. All he said is what everyone already knows, no method Is 100% accurate and I don't think anyone on here is claiming that it is. But to dismiss technical analysis as simple luck is being naive.

[Benedict1957]

Originally Posted by gatorfast

Overwhelming amount of factual evidence . Guess we didn't read the same post. All he said is what everyone already knows, no method Is 100% accurate and I don't think anyone on here is claiming that it is. But to dismiss technical analysis as simple luck is being naive.

RandomHero is an FA who's asshurt about the fact that people are trashing his profession in this topic. Expect more "holier than thou" posts from him where he subtly insults other people through content-less sarcasm.

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by Dalko43

So you are saying you have always picked winning assets? You must have a the midas touch then....what the hell are you doing on this forum??

Go put that 'special' skill of yours to use and work for some big name firm.

Everyone thinks their stock-picking methods are effective...until they aren't and the next bear market takes everyone by surprise.

Plenty of people, far smarter and far more dedicated than either your or I have tried to apply technical analysis towards a long-term market strategy...the % of fund managers and stock-pickers who have consistently outperformed the market on a long-term basis, are few to none...and those few that do consistently outperform do so mostly because of chance.

Edit: Please note that the keyword in all this is consistency. It's nice if you have used this strategy once in the past to great effect...but until you have demonstrated that your methods can consistently achieve certain results, you've got nothing special going on.

so let me get this straight, we are on a BMW MB and people are slinging free advice/opinions and you expect black box algo's discourse?...

sheesh, I better tell Stevie Cohen I can't post on here anymore cause a few people on a BMW thread said TA isn't 100% accurate and that nothing is...shocking!

People, we are on a free BMW MB, we can pretty much say anything we want no?...the day I or anyone else on here gets paid for making posts, then we should be held accountable...

Until then we are still in bull but the undercurrents still continue to be shaky...the heavy institutionals aren't buying as much and this rally is fed by retail but this doesn't mean the mkts won't go up on light volume, but in the end I still believe in Effective Volume and delta charts.

As I have said many times before, 90% will lose money trading on ST time frame, you will have better luck with "ignorance is bliss long" in a bull mkt.

The metals cratered, then momo's such as 3D printing, now oil with the dollar surge. Euro crashing now. Bonds cont to rise and 10 yr rates at all time lows. Tech leaders like AAPL, AMZN, TSLA, GOOG, FB start to break down watch out...a few like GOOG and TSLA already looking abit shaky.

Something evil is brewing underneath the surface, we are in prob 4th longest bull ever and at some point, when it breaks it will break down hard. We will see a 40-50% selloff within a 6 month span of the start of selloff, just as the sun rises in the east but when?. That remains the key question, but as of right now, I don't see a top at all.

You know how TA is important?. Cause when mkt's fail to hold key technical levels the floodgates open and the selloff is vicious. Self fulfilling prophecy?....maybe.

[mact3333]

Lastly, if the critical ones on this thread have ever read this thread in the past, they would know I have said many many times "never ever listen to anyone blindly on here, especially me!". You gotta do your own dd and cause nobody will take the losses for you. Think I have even said "if you are smart, you would never ever listen to a word I say".....

People are just throwing out ideas and thoughts and nothing more....so relax.

[Dalko43]

Originally Posted by mact3333

so let me get this straight, we are on a BMW MB and people are slinging free advice/opinions and you expect black box algo's discourse?...

sheesh, I better tell Stevie Cohen I can't post on here anymore cause a few people on a BMW thread said TA isn't 100% accurate and that nothing is...shocking!

People, we are on a free BMW MB, we can pretty much say anything we want no?...the day I or anyone else on here gets paid for making posts, then we should be held accountable...

Until then we are still in bull but the undercurrents still continue to be shaky...the heavy institutionals aren't buying as much and this rally is fed by retail but this doesn't mean the mkts won't go up on light volume, but in the end I still believe in Effective Volume and delta charts.

As I have said many times before, 90% will lose money trading on ST time frame, you will have better luck with "ignorance is bliss long" in a bull mkt.

The metals cratered, then momo's such as 3D printing, now oil with the dollar surge. Euro crashing now. Bonds cont to rise and 10 yr rates at all time lows. Tech leaders like AAPL, AMZN, TSLA, GOOG, FB start to break down watch out...a few like GOOG and TSLA already looking abit shaky.

Something evil is brewing underneath the surface, we are in prob 4th longest bull ever and at some point, when it breaks it will break down hard. We will see a 40-50% selloff within a 6 month span of the start of selloff, just as the sun rises in the east but when?. That remains the key question, but as of right now, I don't see a top at all.

You know how TA is important?. Cause when mkt's fail to hold key technical levels the floodgates open and the selloff is vicious. Self fulfilling prophecy?....maybe.

One of the most elaborate non-answers I have seen so far on this forum.

Consistency...if you can demonstrate consistent results using your TA methods, then you have a leg to stand on...until then I would caution anyone on this forum from drinking the TA coolaid.

Also, to your comment in bold, very few people ever see the market 'top' or peak coming. That's why when the market has peaked and corrected in the past, the investor outflow from riskier assets into safer ones occurred after the correction had already begun.

[ASAP]

I'll be honest, I don't know anything about stocks but here is what I do know-

With a 500K portfolio, you can open up almost any franchise and make 10K a month without even blinking an eye... in the stock market, that is purely luck.

3 types of people make money in the stock market-

1) Insiders
2) Corporate Raiders (Market Movers)
3) People in on an IPO

Everyone else is either a penny pusher, playing dumb luck or falsely believing some sort of technical argument that in the end never turns out to be factual once history happens. No one has ever gotten rich off the stock market without already having massive amounts of cash or having a setup business outside of this venture through other means. It's as simple as that.

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by ASAP

I'll be honest, I don't know anything about stocks but here is what I do know-

With a 500K portfolio, you can open up almost any franchise and make 10K a month without even blinking an eye... in the stock market, that is purely luck.

3 types of people make money in the stock market-

1) Insiders
2) Corporate Raiders (Market Movers)
3) People in on an IPO

Everyone else is either a penny pusher, playing dumb luck or falsely believing some sort of technical argument that in the end never turns out to be factual once history happens. No one has ever gotten rich off the stock market without already having massive amounts of cash or having a setup business outside of this venture through other means. It's as simple as that.

Ignorant as fuck. Look at the historical returns of the SP500. Those returns would beat the 2% you'd be getting on your franchise.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by r0wr

Ignorant as fuck. Look at the historical returns of the SP500. Those returns would beat the 2% you'd be getting on your franchise.

Ha... 2% in one month champ... good luck and good luck beating the guaranteed consistency... but best of luck

[mact3333]

on a side note, anyone try a burger at Shake Shack?...crazy mkt's when a burger IPO explodes 150%.