[mact3333]

never mind...waste of time responding to certain people.

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by fazman

Tuesday prediction

Everything will be green because options expired today coupled with long weekend since no one wants to hold stocks when the market is closed.

Tech is on deck for earnings reporting soon. BABA and AAPL will be moving up. By Feb 1st we will be in a new rally (probably a big one and then watch out for the correction just before election time).

There is actually a small/modest chance that could happen...but no way rebound lasts that long before vicious bear kicks in imho.

AAPL a micron away from breaking down.

If a vicious bear rally happens it will start like right now...not in 2 weeks...we shall see.

[ASBSECU E93]

Originally Posted by mact3333

There is actually a small/modest chance that could happen...but no way rebound lasts that long before vicious bear kicks in imho.

AAPL a micron away from breaking down.

If a vicious bear rally happens it will start like right now...not in 2 weeks...we shall see.

Keep posting here...no one, and I mean NO ONE can predict the markets with any certainty. I find value is many of your comments, as well as others who provide feedback here.

What I do know - China is the mom of the house.

When she isn't happy....ain't nobody happy...

[fazman]

Originally Posted by mact3333

There is actually a small/modest chance that could happen...but no way rebound lasts that long before vicious bear kicks in imho.

AAPL a micron away from breaking down.

If a vicious bear rally happens it will start like right now...not in 2 weeks...we shall see.

yea anything can happen... no crystal ball here. But i see us in a range of Dow 15500-18500 (other indexs are usually inline with the ups/downs too, some correlation)... i suspect we will move towards higher "lows" and lower "highs" until the MM's move us either up or down. My bet is on up since it is an election year. But all markets need cycles and volitility because thats how the MM's make money.

[fazman]

Originally Posted by ASBSECU E93

Keep posting here...no one, and I mean NO ONE can predict the markets with any certainty. I find value is many of your comments, as well as others who provide feedback here.

What I do know - China is the mom of the house.

When she isn't happy....ain't nobody happy...

fair enough, i have no crystal ball (otherwise i would have won powerball hahaha). I think the oil, iran, terrorism, and china are all just drama that media wants to feed you as "reasons" but the reality is no one ever goes back in time to do the cause/effect root cause analysis with a smoking gun as to what/why/how things happened. To me its mostly computers doing trading models based on what can cause the max profit by causeing the most pain. computers with high speed connections with access to money from large funds can do far more profit than you and I as retail guys. Our only hope is from long term buy and hold with smart entry/exit points.

[MrPrena]

Originally Posted by Dalko43

What exactly are bear ETF's?

Do you mean multi-asset funds?

Short, Ultra SHort and Ultra Pro short of DIJA30, S&P500, Nasdaq100, rusell2000, etc. I didn't want to name all, so, I assume people will get what I am saying when I said bear etfs.
(sqqq sdow spxu smdd etc.)

Originally Posted by Dalko43

Dude, you're a wannabe posting useless, hours-old market information on a car forum.

Everyone should already know how the markets have been performing over the last few days...and if they don't this is the last place they need to be looking.

You don't think the oil glut has anything to do with its pricing? There are a lot of analysts and researchers (you know the types that write peer-reviewed papers) who disagree with you.

I do agree with you on one thing though. Investor emotions play a huge role in how the market performs. And an ill-informed, naive sub-forum like this only adds to that problem. No one truly knows if the market is going to route or not until after the fact, but calling out stupid warnings like "DEFCON 4" is the kind of thing that will instigate pandemonium and will cause a logjam of people trying to cash out of their investments.

As someone else had already noted, if you truly had an effective strategy for timing the market and only catch the good bull markets while avoiding most of the bear markets, you'd probably be earning a fat paycheck from some trading company or fund group instead of preaching your "insightful" predictions to a bunch of car enthusiasts.

Yes. Reporting 1 hr past news and making momentum trades. It is easier to predict xyz 34/sr going to 34.25/33.75 than xyz going to 29/40.

As for that, I would rather look at briefing.com than read this thread.

[MrPrena]

Originally Posted by ASBSECU E93

Keep posting here...no one, and I mean NO ONE can predict the markets with any certainty. I find value is many of your comments, as well as others who provide feedback here.

What I do know - China is the mom of the house.

When she isn't happy....ain't nobody happy...

I agree.
He is a good summarizer of all major news which already happened and what analyst speculate it will happen.

Real analyst and economist needs to somewhat predict what will happen in 2h and 2017 based on data they have and do quantitative analysis and apply that with historical stats and economic theories to back their theories.

Only thing is that the mact3333 wants to receive credit for nano-second momentum trade off of news. Nothing wrong with it. I appreciate the updates he brings and people may save some time by not reading briefing.com, barrons, wsj, foxbn, and cnbc as often.

[Inspired]

This thread exploded when the market finally looks bearish. I have been holding 90% cash since SPY hit 200. Is this just a minor pullback or a beginning of the bears? However, I'm quite interested in jumping on USO for a long term play. I'm holding off till crude hit $20 and I'll start my position.

[stylinexpat]

Keep in mind that exports from China to America tanked big time during the last quarter and last year. If exports dropped 30-40% then shares could also drop 30-40%. Keep in mind that oil tanker over 65% and many currencies tanked over 50%

[JasonCSU]

Originally Posted by Dalko43

I do agree with you on one thing though. Investor emotions play a huge role in how the market performs. And an ill-informed, naive sub-forum like this only adds to that problem. No one truly knows if the market is going to route or not until after the fact, but calling out stupid warnings like "DEFCON 4" is the kind of thing that will instigate pandemonium and will cause a logjam of people trying to cash out of their investments.

While I enjoy reading the ideas and opinions in this thread, I agree the fearmongering is unnecessary.

[schoy]

I don't mind the "fearmongering". It's your money, after all. CNBC/MSNBC/CNN/etc. all use the same rhetoric.

What I do mind is when the reference to DEFCON is used incorrectly. As the threat of nuclear war increases, DEFCON decreases. So DEFCON 5 means the lowest threat level, while DEFCON 1 is the highest. Just a PSA.

[nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn]

Here comes earnings season, yay!!!!!

[MrPrena]

Originally Posted by nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

Here comes earnings season, yay!!!!!

shhhhhhhhhhh... you are waking up the huge grizzly bear.

[ASBSECU E93]

Originally Posted by MrPrena

shhhhhhhhhhh... you are waking up the huge grizzly bear.

[MrPrena]

Originally Posted by ASBSECU E93

After 2 straight anal tearing on trades, I've decide to be 100x more cautious. Heck, I didn't even lose a dime on year 2008-2012 from by holding biggest bag of urine/poop holding.

[David70]

Originally Posted by Inspired

This thread exploded when the market finally looks bearish. I have been holding 90% cash since SPY hit 200. Is this just a minor pullback or a beginning of the bears? However, I'm quite interested in jumping on USO for a long term play. I'm holding off till crude hit $20 and I'll start my position.

Assuming this means you had a large % of your money in stocks and took virtually all of it out, are sitting on it waiting for something to happen that will have you put most of it back? What will be your trigger to get back in? I would be surprised if this strategy is the best one.

Originally Posted by stylinexpat

269 Wal Mart shops closing? Oil under $30...
There is a difference when Gulf States have money and do not have money. The rest of the world will also share the pain of the Gulf States in the Middle East. When oil tanks consequences follows

Walmart is closing 269 of it's stores worldwide (less than 1% of revenue), a little more than half of them in the U.S., and plans to open roughly the same number also. Way overblown news.

Originally Posted by MrPrena

After 2 straight anal tearing on trades, I've decide to be 100x more cautious. Heck, I didn't even lose a dime on year 2008-2012 from by holding biggest bag of urine/poop holding.

Reading the news for the last couple of weeks and changing what you have been doing by 100x means your long term strategy has been way off or you are overreacting. What does this mean you are going to do and why the sudden change in your plans?

mact3333 - From what I understand you say you have a system that lets you time the market, you don't want to share (which I understand), but if true, why don't you prove to us it works by telling us when you plan to buy and sell and to what extent (before you do it)? This won't give us insight into how you do it or affect your results (group here is very small - even if everyone followed the advise) but would prove one way or the other how effective your system is.

[stylinexpat]

Factor in 25% drop in shipping for exports out of China and a drop of 30-50% from export orders to manufacturers in China these last couple of months.

If orders drop by 30-50% that means sales dropped by 30-50% and if sales dropped by 30-50% then that means earnings and profits will drop by that much as well which means stock prices will correct by an equivalent amount as well.

[MrPrena]

Originally Posted by David70

Reading the news for the last couple of weeks and changing what you have been doing by 100x means your long term strategy has been way off or you are overreacting. What does this mean you are going to do and why the sudden change in your plans?

% loss tells the truth. Meaning I didn't do enough research or my prediction was wrong. Time to move on for bigger % gain.

[mact3333]

I have no idea why people keep saying I have a secret market timing system that says this and that...I just look at the charts and see things and voice an opinion.

I have no need to prove anything...I just give my thoughts on the mkts, thats all.

I have given my opinion on here for years and if people see value in that then
they should pay attention and if they don't, just ignore.

Tonight is the trap I have been waiting for...mkt's tend to break when people are sleeping and they cannot do anything about it...I think tonight is one of those nights...while mom and pop sleep tonight, the mkt gods have the vaseline out and people will be hurting soon.

From technical standpoint, the floodgates about to open up soon..

How should mom and pop pick a true bottom(yes we are getting ahead of ourselves), just divide the highs on NFLX, FB, AAPL, AMZN, TSLA by at least 3....

All imho of course.

[NotoriousART]

Originally Posted by mact3333

Tonight is the trap I have been waiting for...mkt's tend to break when people are sleeping and they cannot do anything about it...I think tonight is one of those nights...while mom and pop sleep tonight, the mkt gods have the vaseline out and people will be hurting soon.

It may be night here in the US but it's daytime in Asia and anyone can see Japan's market is tanking so most likely the US market will be down as well tomorrow. Is that your data point for this "prediction"?

[MrPrena]

Originally Posted by mact3333

I have no idea why people keep saying I have a secret market timing system that says this and that...I just look at the charts and see things and voice an opinion.

I have no need to prove anything...I just give my thoughts on the mkts, thats all.

I have given my opinion on here for years and if people see value in that then
they should pay attention and if they don't, just ignore.

Tonight is the trap I have been waiting for...mkt's tend to break when people are sleeping and they cannot do anything about it...I think tonight is one of those nights...while mom and pop sleep tonight, the mkt gods have the vaseline out and people will be hurting soon.

From technical standpoint, the floodgates about to open up soon..

How should mom and pop pick a true bottom(yes we are getting ahead of ourselves), just divide the highs on NFLX, FB, AAPL, AMZN, TSLA by at least 3....

All imho of course.

I would agree on those. NFLX? maybe divide by 2.
TSLA? Probably divide by 4.

Who still wants an electric car at premium at gas being 1.65/gal?

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by MrPrena

I agree.
He is a good summarizer of all major news which already happened and what analyst speculate it will happen.

Real analyst and economist needs to somewhat predict what will happen in 2h and 2017 based on data they have and do quantitative analysis and apply that with historical stats and economic theories to back their theories.

Only thing is that the mact3333 wants to receive credit for nano-second momentum trade off of news. Nothing wrong with it. I appreciate the updates he brings and people may save some time by not reading briefing.com, barrons, wsj, foxbn, and cnbc as often.

lol...you need to pay more attention...what you are saying is ludicrous and plain dumb...nanosecond momentum trades off of news?...I don't watch cnbc or read wsj, barrons...seriously...you know how I know you are either dumb or a liar, I haven't made any trades recently other than keep my DTO long position which I have had for a real long time...only trades I made awhile back(i.e.-a month ago at least) to sell everything for myself and my kids 529.

You have no credibility, cause you say I trade on nanosecond momentum trades
and want credit for that yet I haven't posted a single trade on here in months maybe years ....actually last trade I posted was last August on UCO and DTO...