[Alfisti]

Thats an astonishing price for that X3, man.

[PoorLurker]

It seems like the high end GT p-car market was a little soft before all this happened.

Seems like the GT2RS didn't follow the trend of the 991.1 GT3RS. I remember 991.1 GT3RSs going for ridiculous prices. The GT2RS can be purchased for less than what I was seeing 991.1 GT3RSs going for!

997 GT3 seem to be about the same price as a year or so ago.

I do see people asking high prices for a couple year old models non GT cars. I am not sure what's supporting their thinking. Maybe they are basing it on last NA 911?

[PoorLurker]

Originally Posted by Humdizzle

it'll be interesting to see what happens with the high end car market. Will my ferrari value go up because the factory is shut down for a good amount of time? Or will prices fall because the owner's businesses have run dry and they need to free up money quick? Certain industries are getting hit very hard.

I know which car in your stable will definitely increase in value!

That 2009 civic!

[Humdizzle]

Originally Posted by PoorLurker

I know which car in your stable will definitely increase in value!

That 2009 civic!

well there certainly isn't a whole lot left to decrease with that car lol !

[chassis]

Regarding lease returned vehicles, which leasing companies are required to take back from lessees, what is the most common disposition channel? Auctions? Dealer preowned inventory?

What is the best site for current auction data, including via paid subscription?

[JM98]

Originally Posted by chassis

Regarding lease returned vehicles, which leasing companies are required to take back from lessees, what is the most common disposition channel? Auctions? Dealer preowned inventory?

What is the best site for current auction data, including via paid subscription?

Probably get some good info from Manheim

[Alfisti]

So the worst we say in 2008 was 700K file for unemployment in a week. Last week we saw well over 3 million and the week just past we saw a staggering 6.6 million. In a week.

We

are

fucked.

[fastboatster]

Originally Posted by Alfisti

So the worst we say in 2008 was 700K file for unemployment in a week. Last week we saw well over 3 million and the week just past we saw a staggering 6.6 million. In a week.

We

are

fucked.

Honestly, there's no choice but to start reopening the economy, perhaps not in heavily affected areas like NY, but in places like CA with fewer cases. A month or 2 like this and the enchilada might fall apart and that wont help treating COVID 19 either.
Folks who say we need to quarantine for 2 years are not helping

[flybigjet]

Originally Posted by fastboatster

Folks who say we need to quarantine for 2 years are not helping

Wait. What?

Well, I guess if you don't mind living in a cave and using Fluffy as both a pelt and a food source?

Utterly impossible in today's modern world.

Maybe..... MAYBE..... 60 days. And that's pushing it.

And much more of this? Martial Law is the only real way to make it stick-- and that's a Pandora's box that *NOBODY* want's to open.

R.

[fastboatster]

Yeah, some hotheaded "scientists" proposed to quarantine for 2 years. A lot of folks talk about 6 months. States like Maryland have imposed "social distancing" until mid-June, so that's 2.5 months. It's a race for whose going to do social distancing for longer, kind of like a virtue signalling.
A lot of folks at my work were like we need to social distance for months, but when they saw unemployment claims spike, they stopped talking about this too much.

[autoart]

I heard that auto auctions are not happening. So no where for a dealer to offload a used car at this time. It would not hurt to lowball a dealer, see what happens.

[flybigjet]

Originally Posted by fastboatster

Yeah, some hotheaded "scientists" proposed to quarantine for 2 years. A lot of folks talk about 6 months. States like Maryland have imposed "social distancing" until mid-June, so that's 2.5 months. It's a race for whose going to do social distancing for longer, kind of like a virtue signalling.
A lot of folks at my work were like we need to social distance for months, but when they saw unemployment claims spike, they stopped talking about this too much.

Not to be callous, but from a non-emotive standpoint, I think we're starting to get close to the "cure is worse than the disease" point.

I don't think we're quite there yet, but when you put 34% of the country out of a job (and that number shows no sign of being the end point), wipe out literally thousands of businesses, shut down EVERYTHING...... at some point in time, you're going to have to make hard choices.

[RM7]

Originally Posted by flybigjet

Not to be callous, but from a non-emotive standpoint, I think we're starting to get close to the "cure is worse than the disease" point.

I don't think we're quite there yet, but when you put 34% of the country out of a job (and that number shows no sign of being the end point), wipe out literally thousands of businesses, shut down EVERYTHING...... at some point in time, you're going to have to make hard choices.

But did you die?

[fastboatster]

Imo it would have been way better to social distance the elderly and vulnerable populations first. These have the highest hospitalization and mortality rates, at least an order of magnitude larger than relatively young people who would also need to work from home if possible and follow basic hygiene guidelines.

[chassis]

Haven’t seen price movement in the past week in my target searches. The economic landscape will take time to unfold, and preowned car prices will probably take as long to do whatever they are going to do.

[Alfisti]

I just say something I am half interested in listed at a solid 15 to 20% OVER market price. Insane.

[JM98]

wonder how Carmax furloughing employees and minimizing operations will impact the used car market:

https://www.autoblog.com/2020/04/09/...15000-workers/

[flybigjet]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fear-...110000556.html

(Bloomberg) -- The auto industry -- already fretting lengthy factory shutdowns and depressed new-vehicle demand -- is starting to sound the alarm about a potential used-car price collapse that could have far-reaching consequences for manufacturers, lenders and rental companies.

Used-vehicle auctions are for now virtually paralyzed, much like the rest of the economy. The grave concern market watchers have is that vehicles already are starting to pile up at places where buyers and sellers make and take bids on cars and trucks -- and that this imbalance will last for months.

If that fear is realized and prices plummet, it will be detrimental to automakers and their in-house lending units, which likely will have to write down the value of lease contracts that had assumed vehicles would retain greater value. Rental-car companies also will get less money from selling down their fleet of vehicles, which are sitting idle amid a global pandemic that’s been catastrophic for travel.

“Six months from now, there will be huge, if not unprecedented, levels of wholesale supply in the market,” Dale Pollak, an executive vice president of Cox Automotive, which owns North America’s largest auto-auction company, wrote in an open letter to auto dealers last week. “Cars are coming in, but they aren’t selling. Today’s huge supply of wholesale inventory suggests supplies will be even larger in the months ahead.”

Lease Extensions

Automakers are doing what they can to limit the damage. General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co.’s finance units already are offering customers one-month lease extensions. In addition to relieving pressure on consumers wary of going into showrooms, this will delay some of the influx of off-lease vehicles headed to auctions that are for now operating only virtually.

But these measures are unlikely to go nearly far enough to address the asymmetry between the supply of used vehicles and demand that is unlikely to rebound anytime soon given that almost 17 million Americans sought jobless benefits in just the last three weeks.

“There aren’t a lot of people in gloves and masks running out to buy cars,” said Maryann Keller, a former Wall Street analyst who’s now an auto-industry consultant in Stamford, Connecticut. “Auctions are mostly shut down and they’re filled with cars that have no buyers.”

Residual Risk

Used-car sales fell 64% in the last week of March, according to Manheim. The Cox Automotive-owned auction company estimates that prices have fallen about 10% in recent weeks, though that figure is based on unusually low volume at auctions.

If that level of decline lasts or worsens, it could have huge implications for GM, whose General Motors Financial unit had $30.4 billion worth of vehicles leased to customers at the end of last year. If GM Financial needs to boost its estimate of how much those vehicles are going to depreciate in value, each percentage point increase raises the firm’s expenses by $304 million, according to a regulatory filing.

GM assumed a 4% decline in residual values this year. If the 10% drop Manheim has seen recently persists, depreciation expense could counter the $1.9 billion that GM Financial earned in pretax profit last year, said Joel Levington, a credit analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. Ford Motor Credit faces similar risk, he said.

Ford said Monday it’s considering additional actions to raise cash after reporting a preliminary $600 million first-quarter loss. One option could be for Ford Credit to take advantage of thawing in the asset-backed securities market, Levington said in a report.

Read more: Ford’s finance arm generates more profit than ever before

Rental-car companies that appealed to the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve as a group last month for loans, tax breaks and other forms of support await a similar fate. Hertz Global Holdings Inc., Avis Budget Group Inc. and Enterprise Holdings Inc. all are trying to find ways to unload some cars without taking too big of a hit, said Keller, a former Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group Inc. board member.

If Avis and Hertz have to sell cars at lower values, it will add to the costs of maintaining their fleets. A big drop in residual values comes straight out of the bottom line and can create liquidity problems, said Hamzah Mazari, a Jefferies analyst.

For Hertz and Avis, every 1% increase in fleet costs saps about $20 million from earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, Mazari said.

Motivated Sellers

Hertz hasn’t cleared out as many cars so far as Avis has, meaning it’s holding more vehicles with few customers to whom it can rent them.

But rental companies that sold aggressively in late March as Covid-19 was spreading did so at a cost, said Jonathan Smoke, Cox Automotive’s chief economist.

“Rental companies are motivated sellers,” Smoke said. “They moved cars quickly but saw the impact on price.”

Dealers also are looking to tap the used-car inventory sitting on their lots into whatever money they can muster. One of Manheim’s biggest tasks now, Cox Automotive’s Pollak wrote in his letter last week, is finding places to park the stream of vehicles headed for auctions.

“It’s critical for dealers to recognize what may be an unpleasant truth,” Pollak said. “It might take all the cash you can gather to sustain your business today and put it in a position to be viable when the market comes back.”

[chassis]

Interesting flybigjet thanks for posting.

The quality in the preowned market is late model low mileage lease returns. These I can see carrying the highest prices, relative to what was considered "normal" in the pre-pandemic days.

Rental cars at auction I can see getting hammered price-wise. Personally, I would not buy a former fleet or rental vehicle.

Will the large auction houses such as Manheim park the inventory, as hinted at in the article? That would be speculative, similar to recent oil buying and storing it on the water in tanker vessels. Cash for Manheim would be tied up, and they would need to estimate when and at what price the inventory could be liquidated.

I'm of the view right now that prices for quality, preowned low mileage lease returns will not come crashing down in in the next quarter.

[RMachuca3d]

Originally Posted by chassis

Interesting flybigjet thanks for posting.

The quality in the preowned market is late model low mileage lease returns. These I can see carrying the highest prices, relative to what was considered "normal" in the pre-pandemic days.

Rental cars at auction I can see getting hammered price-wise. Personally, I would not buy a former fleet or rental vehicle.

Will the large auction houses such as Manheim park the inventory, as hinted at in the article? That would be speculative, similar to recent oil buying and storing it on the water in tanker vessels. Cash for Manheim would be tied up, and they would need to estimate when and at what price the inventory could be liquidated.

I'm of the view right now that prices for quality, preowned low mileage lease returns will not come crashing down in in the next quarter.

I'd be down for a charger R\T ex rental for dirt cheap as a commuter.

[W///]

Originally Posted by PoorLurker

It seems like the high end GT p-car market was a little soft before all this happened.

Seems like the GT2RS didn't follow the trend of the 991.1 GT3RS. I remember 991.1 GT3RSs going for ridiculous prices. The GT2RS can be purchased for less than what I was seeing 991.1 GT3RSs going for!

997 GT3 seem to be about the same price as a year or so ago.

I do see people asking high prices for a couple year old models non GT cars. I am not sure what's supporting their thinking. Maybe they are basing it on last NA 911?

The one car I'm seeing starting to drop is the 981 Spyder. Probably because the 718 Spyder is coming out and because of the virus. Saw a few 997 GT3 drop a few grand, but that's about it.

Both totally out of my reach at the moment.

[fastboatster]

Originally Posted by RMachuca3d

I'd be down for a charger R\T ex rental for dirt cheap as a commuter.

Yeah, I'd be down too.