[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by 2008M36MT

Riveting analysis from you as always, I got what I expected.

Please share with me your playbook right now, I would love to create a portfolio around it and see how it is doing 1-2 years from now. Lm guess, you are busy?

[2008M36MT]

Originally Posted by UncleWede

Dang, that's like 5.02% higher than the current 12-month I'm sitting on at the CU (which, incidentally, I don't think is FDIC insured)

See what the penalty is, you’ll probably more than offset that by moving into a better rate.

I’m good where I am. I’m not willing to take additional risk right now. I have rental income, a corporate 401K, and play money that’s in 6-12 month CD. No liabilities either. I think I’m doing just fine at 37.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

Please share with me your playbook right now, I would love to create a portfolio around it and see how it is doing 1-2 years from now. Lm guess, you are busy?

Anytime people share what they are doing (and it's not doing well in a moment in time) you have the popcorn gallery eager to give their opinion...and tell you how much cash they have sitting on the sideline.

Never a bad thing to have conviction.

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by 2008M36MT

See what the penalty is, you’ll probably more than offset that by moving into a better rate.

I’m good where I am. I’m not willing to take additional risk right now. I have rental income, a corporate 401K, and play money that’s in 6-12 month CD. No liabilities either. I think I’m doing just fine at 37.

Interesting, I am not trying to troll but I am also 37.

I have a good 401k, 12 mo CD. I have no loans although looking to get a new car which I will finance in part

Everyone has diff priorities, right now I am looking to position for home ownership if the market dips. If that fails then I will keep renting with some additional savings

[2008M36MT]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

Interesting, I am not trying to troll but I am also 37.

I have a good 401k, 12 mo CD. I have no loans although looking to get a new car which I will finance in part

Everyone has diff priorities, right now I am looking to position for home ownership if the market dips. If that fails then I will keep renting with some additional savings

Great, good luck to you. For what it’s worth, my 401K is really a Roth 401, 60% of which is invested in large cap equities, 15% in small cap equities, since 2015. I’ve maxed out the contributions for the last 8 years, so apart from my CDs, which are indeed FDIC insured, I have plenty of risk in my overall portfolio. My thought process on the discretionary accounts was based on the economic outlook. I made out pretty well immediately after COVID, and it seemed like another downturn was likely this year. So far it doesn’t look like that prediction came to fruition. Oh, well, you can’t win them all. I still have peace of mind.

Home ownership is the best, I bought my first home at 31, paid it off at 34, though I live in a lower cost of living state than you do. My rental has been paid off as well. Working on another, sold my M4 for that. Still have the M3, which is my favorite model car that I’ve owned.

All that said, my investment strategy is diversified and balanced and more in line with Dave Ramsey’s school of thought (no debt, emergency fund). I just don’t listen to him when it comes to buying cars or splurging on vacations and that kind of stuff. You only live once.

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by 2008M36MT

Great, good luck to you. For what it’s worth, my 401K is really a Roth 401, 60% of which is invested in large cap equities, 15% in small cap equities, since 2015. I’ve maxed out the contributions for the last 8 years, so apart from my CDs, which are indeed FDIC insured, I have plenty of risk in my overall portfolio. My thought process on the discretionary accounts was based on the economic outlook. I made out pretty well immediately after COVID, and it seemed like another downturn was likely this year. So far it doesn’t look like that prediction came to fruition. Oh, well, you can’t win them all. I still have peace of mind.

Home ownership is the best, I bought my first home at 31, paid it off at 34, though I live in a lower cost of living state than you do. My rental has been paid off as well. Working on another, sold my M4 for that. Still have the M3, which is my favorite model car that I’ve owned.

All that said, my investment strategy is diversified and balanced and more in line with Dave Ramsey’s school of thought (no debt, emergency fund). I just don’t listen to him when it comes to buying cars or splurging on vacations and that kind of stuff. You only live once.

Lol bro, k. Proud of you

[ASAP]

just to make sure everyone is on the same page-

First Republic was bailed out by the US government and then it failed. It is now purchased by JPM for pennies on the dollar further enlarging a massive banking giant.

Boy... if this isn't an idiocracy, then it's certainly ran by the Mafia.

[NickyC]

Originally Posted by ASAP

just to make sure everyone is on the same page-

First Republic was bailed out by the US government and then it failed. It is now purchased by JPM for pennies on the dollar further enlarging a massive banking giant.

Boy... if this isn't an idiocracy, then it's certainly ran by the Mafia.

Exactly, JPM said it’s acquisition of FRC will generate a gain of $2.6 billion, as well as $500 million in profit per year from the buy. For the cherry on top, the FDIC is backstopping $13 billion in losses and providing $50 billion in financing. Guess who gets to pay that?

Not to mention three of the largest bank failures in history in the span of a month or so, and all of this gets so little attention in the news. The biggest story appears to be folks who can't even figure out their own gender.

It truly is amazing.

[chassis]

$100b in First Republic deposits and $17T in total US bank deposits. This is a story?

[NickyC]

Originally Posted by chassis

$100b in First Republic deposits and $17T in total US bank deposits. This is a story?

Massive story, it’s the beginning of a collapse of the regional banking system. Powell raising rates another 25bps as expected tomorrow will only hasten the damage.

The impending CRE catastrophe hasn’t even begun yet and banks are already on the ropes. We’re going to see a banking consolidation over the coming years into a handful of mega banks.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by NickyC

Massive story, it’s the beginning of a collapse of the regional banking system. Powell raising rates another 25bps as expected tomorrow will only hasten the damage.

The impending CRE catastrophe hasn’t even begun yet and banks are already on the ropes. We’re going to see a banking consolidation over the coming years into a handful of mega banks.

He's going to have to stop and decline the 25 bps...the regionals are getting absolutely destroyed today.

[dradernh]

Originally Posted by NickyC

Massive story, it’s the beginning of a collapse of the regional banking system. Powell raising rates another 25bps as expected tomorrow will only hasten the damage.

The impending CRE catastrophe hasn’t even begun yet and banks are already on the ropes. We’re going to see a banking consolidation over the coming years into a handful of mega banks.

So, buy large fistfuls of big-bank stocks before the market wises up?

[NickyC]

Originally Posted by dradernh

So, buy large fistfuls of big-bank stocks before the market wises up?

I would not dare give advice on financial matters. Unless of course you were to go exactly against what I advise!

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by NickyC

Massive story, it’s the beginning of a collapse of the regional banking system. Powell raising rates another 25bps as expected tomorrow will only hasten the damage.

The impending CRE catastrophe hasn’t even begun yet and banks are already on the ropes. We’re going to see a banking consolidation over the coming years into a handful of mega banks.

Over-leveraged banks taking big risks with other people's money? When in history has this ever happened?!?!

Yep, many banks will collapse this year. Same goes for car loans. Lots of defaults are now happening. Dealers are becoming stuck with over-priced used car inventory because they either paid too much for the cars and/or still believe they can charge stupid money for used cars. Home sales will begin to plummet as well. It has been teetering and data says sales are climbing every so slightly, but it's all smoke in mirrors. It too will plummet and will do so very hard when we're in a full blown recession.

CRE is in shambles, but there will be some improvement down the road once the recession hits, people start loosing their jobs and/or become very worried about their jobs, thus companies have far more leverage to bring people back in the office AT LEAST 2 days a week. It's a FARCE to think that total remote working is good for the masses and business. Yes, in some situations it works. But for the vast majority, it does not work in the long-term. The office landscape is changing for the better and will be more efficient in its design, but workers will start going back to the office soon. When this happens, there will be a CRE boom for office reconfiguration and design. I'm talking a few years down the road.

[NickyC]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

Over-leveraged banks taking big risks with other people's money? When in history has this ever happened?!?!

Yep, many banks will collapse this year. Same goes for car loans. Lots of defaults are now happening. Dealers are becoming stuck with over-priced used car inventory because they either paid too much for the cars and/or still believe they can charge stupid money for used cars. Home sales will begin to plummet as well. It has been teetering and data says sales are climbing every so slightly, but it's all smoke in mirrors. It too will plummet and will do so very hard when we're in a full blown recession.

CRE is in shambles, but there will be some improvement down the road once the recession hits, people start loosing their jobs and/or become very worried about their jobs, thus companies have far more leverage to bring people back in the office AT LEAST 2 days a week. It's a FARCE to think that total remote working is good for the masses and business. Yes, in some situations it works. But for the vast majority, it does not work in the long-term. The office landscape is changing for the better and will be more efficient in its design, but workers will start going back to the office soon. When this happens, there will be a CRE boom for office reconfiguration and design. I'm talking a few years down the road.

I sincerely hope you are correct about offices coming back! I never wanted to shut down our office in Miami, told them I’d stay on-site during the height of the madness but they kicked me out basically hah. I am sooo sick of remote work, it’s honestly becoming depressing and far too much time “on the clock”. I want the nice 9-5 back with no weekends, and being the boss of the office was fantastic. I really miss the human interaction and ability to help people in person. I believe remote is a scam too, productivity is far less from what I’ve seen!

I pray you are correct!

[c1pher]

My company wants everyone back in office but is taking the slow and easy approach. Lots of concern people will leave. Although I am pretty senior, I see no reason to be in the office. I'm on video practically all day, so it's not as if they don't see me working. We have an old school person in charge who isn't quite as old as Nancy Pelosi. But you know the old adage, "virtual presence is a physical absence". It's perception management and pride to see all your little worker bees buzzing away in one spot.

[2008M36MT]

I’m on Zoom all day but am not required to be on video 3/4ths of the time. I will come back into the office if required to do so, but would prefer not to. I’m physically located in a different state from where my job is based, so occasionally fly to meet with the team or for different events. I just take up a “hotel” desk out in the open with the people who go to the office. Post COVID, it only exacerbates how distracting everything/one is. Focusing on a contract, while the BD guys are trying to sell, is difficult. Then there’s all the idle chatter. When I’d started my career it wasn’t as distracting. I’m even more of an introvert now than before. During COVID my manager / contracts VP/GC was doing my performance review and I told him I’d prefer to go back to an individual contributor role instead of managing a team. It was a bit surprising to him but the request was accommodated. So now I’m in an island at home, and in my day to day activities. Finally, asked for what I wanted and got it.

[jmack]

Offices will probably never be a thing again, despite what a handful of sociopath middle managers want. People's eyes have been opened and talented professionals will never RTO.

[medphysdave]

Originally Posted by jmack

Offices will probably never be a thing again, despite what a handful of sociopath middle managers want. People's eyes have been opened and talented professionals will never RTO.

The interesting thing about the current employment market is the general lack of understanding about how it is shifting the labor market. There is a short sighted view that "the people" have the upper hand. The only thing that COVID era and current state have done is accelerated the adoption and research into technology that will replace a significant percentage of the workforce. "The people" have been enough of a pain in the ass to motivate business to mitigate future uncertainty.

I'm super excited about the tech because it will make me more productive, but I feel sorry for all of the people it will replace. My role will certainly shift over the next 5 to 10yrs.

[tgrundke]

Originally Posted by jmack

Offices will probably never be a thing again, despite what a handful of sociopath middle managers want. People's eyes have been opened and talented professionals will never RTO.

Correct: professionals will thrive. However, there are a lot of new entrants into the workforce who will be at a significant disadvantage over the long-term.

More importantly: the white collar workforce has now been effectively globalized. This is not good for white collar wages in the US.

Case in point: friend in the midwest took a remote job in 2021, working for a Boston company. His salary was $70k, which was a bargain compared to what the company would pay for a local Bostonian ($95k+).

Found out on Friday he's been replaced by a team out of South Africa. Since he's in the decision making process he knows the numbers: the SA team (TEAM, not individual) is $40k. Team in Boston is still intact, only remote staff in the US were laid off.

If you can work "from wherever", then the company will hire "from wherever".

[dradernh]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

He's going to have to stop and decline the 25 bps...the regionals are getting absolutely destroyed today.

People are hoping today's increase is the last one in this cycle, but I wouldn't bet on it myself.

[3.0L]

A friend recently asked for advice regarding IUL, or Indexed Universal Life insurance policy. From what little I've read, it is linked to the Stock Market Index. I did some limited reading and it seems to be more of a life insurance policy and not really an investment as he described it. Beyond that, I know nothing. Anyone have any experience with IUL?