05-05-2023, 07:45 PM | #7899 |
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I sense more anxiety than irony being present here. However, that could just be me.
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05-06-2023, 09:02 AM | #7900 | |
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The consumer is holding up incredibly well, but as you say, it's the banking sector (and commercial real estate) that are going to dictate where things go from here. We've got some $5tn in CRE that will adjust in the next 18 mos., this could put a lot of banks in really big trouble. |
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05-07-2023, 11:40 AM | #7901 | |
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Honestly, though, I'm getting sick and tired of this "the consumer is holding up OK" BS. The consumer has been crushed by inflation first, and the rapid increase in interest rates, second. Credit card debt is at record highs (just hit $930 BILLION), auto loan delinquencies are at 15 year highs (also a record, since they only started keeping those stats 15 years ago), and the major credit card issuers have recently written off $3.4 billion in consumer loans. Granted, that's a small amount, but none of this bodes well. That the media continues to ignore this speaks to their desire to make, rather than report, the facts, but I digress. The ONLY thing that's saving the consumer economy right now is the fact that unemployment remains low. Because, and I hate to sound like a broken record, people who have jobs continue to spend money, even if they don't have it. The unemployment picture will change pretty quickly now that credit, especially for small and medium businesses, has essentially evaporated. It'll change immediately if there's a default on the debt, but that's for another thread. When it does, the consumer economy, which is 70% of the overall economy, will collapse so fast even the MSM won't be able to ignore it. |
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05-07-2023, 11:51 AM | #7902 |
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Of course I do. And there's zero irony here. Capitalism is the greatest organizing force the world has ever seen, and it's responsible for a degree of shared prosperity that has never been experienced. Is it perfect? No. Does it cause disruption to individual lives? Yes. Does it require some regulation? Of course. But the ability to own the fruits of your labor has and will continue to make far more people far better off than any other system we know.
I am a capitalist. And proud of it. |
05-07-2023, 02:14 PM | #7903 | |
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05-07-2023, 04:24 PM | #7904 | ||
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What is your assessment based on ratio analysis, of the absolute values you laid out? Without this, it might appear you are simply cutting and pasting, in other words regurgitating without adding value, to what you read in the MSM. Quote:
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05-07-2023, 04:40 PM | #7905 | |
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i legit have no idea why u made that first example of that book because it has 0 relevance to your other comments lol
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05-08-2023, 08:46 AM | #7907 |
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Allow me to re rephrase - The US consumer's willingness to get into debt knows no bounds
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05-08-2023, 12:13 PM | #7908 |
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Folks what data (links) is informing the preceding statements on debt? Non-media sources please. Thanks!
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05-08-2023, 12:44 PM | #7909 | |
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https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc
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05-08-2023, 02:43 PM | #7910 | |
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As stated earlier, all aspects of economic activity, including debt, increase without ceasing. Therefore increasing debt, and "all-time high" debt are not bad things. Population today is at an "all-time high". It naturally follows that many products and services are being consumed at all-time high levels. Life (diapers and baby food) and death (caskets and funeral services) are growth industries, after all. What makes you believe, if you do believe, that today's level of debt is good, bad, or neither? |
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05-08-2023, 02:52 PM | #7911 | |
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05-08-2023, 03:07 PM | #7912 |
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Thanks for that data from the end of 2022. Looks like delinquencies were already trending up for everything but student loans, which isn't surprising b/c nobody has to pay those, yet. The slopes of some of those curves are pretty scary and reminiscent of 2006-7.
Next NY Fed report, for Q1 2023, comes out next Thursday (5/18). Anybody willing to bet that things have gotten better since December? |
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05-08-2023, 04:09 PM | #7913 |
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Debt is what makes the economy work and thrive. I don't take part in having debt myself though I like owning my stuff outright including my home.
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05-08-2023, 04:39 PM | #7914 | |
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Fed dropped the April Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) report after the market close today.
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05-08-2023, 04:49 PM | #7916 |
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Do you think near 0 fed fund rates are acceptable for 10 years? Do you think inflation is massively caused by people taking on assloads of debt?
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05-09-2023, 08:52 AM | #7918 | |
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05-09-2023, 08:57 AM | #7919 |
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Just wait until the student loan repayments start back up in September. The government started issuing guidance, fully expecting that the courts will not allow any further extension in loan deferments.
IIRC, the average student loan repayment is around $450/mo. That's a lot of cash for a lot of people. |
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05-09-2023, 05:03 PM | #7920 | |
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Saw a clip of Stanley Druckenmiller this morning on CNBC. Here's part of what he said:
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CPI report is out tomorrow and concensus is 5.5%, with wages up 4.4% y/y. Doesn't look like the Fed will be in the mood to stop raising/cutting rates due to inflation any time soon. If they do stop/cut, it'll be to stave off/crush a crisis. Which may be coming. |
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