[Tyga11]

So how is everyone feeling?

[other_evolved]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

So how is everyone feeling?

Pretty good. No recession expected this year, interest rates levelling off, consumer still spending despite being in a shit mood, earnings holding up.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

So how is everyone feeling?

Scared. The longer the market keeps cranking along, the harder the fall will be when it finally does happen.

And yeah, my portfolio has done absolutely great for a long time, but I know what goes up, must come down eventually. I've been in the market long enough to know that.

Also, no one, and I mean no one, knows when it will happen. It will be unexpected and swift. Just like in the past.

[bagekko]

Didn't they say the other day that Europe is officially in a recession? From my experience Europeans overall do not have the spending habits like us, so officially we won't be in a recession as long as we keep spending. Though it may hit the fan when all the dummies who haven't been saving and have to restart their student loan payments in two months, huge disaster if they are variable interest rates as we're close to 0% when paused and now prolly 7%, gonna be a lot of 20-30 somethings moving back into parents basement if they already don't live there.

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by bagekko

Didn't they say the other day that Europe is officially in a recession?

Yes, Germany plus 7 others in the EU. Ireland shrank by 4.6% in Q1. And they revised the Q4 '22 number to -0.1% from 0%. No bueno for its largest trading partners - US, UK, China, in order - either.

Originally Posted by bagekko

From my experience Europeans overall do not have the spending habits like us, so officially we won't be in a recession as long as we keep spending. Though it may hit the fan when all the dummies who haven't been saving and have to restart their student loan payments in two months, huge disaster if they are variable interest rates as we're close to 0% when paused and now prolly 7%, gonna be a lot of 20-30 somethings moving back into parents basement if they already don't live there.

I've already been reading about the bifurcation, by generation, of spending. Gens X, Z, and even to a degree millenials are all pulling back as they run out of funds for $8 mocha frappes and $15 designer cocktails. They are still spending, of course, because they have jobs and access to credit, but they're definitely feeling the pinch. Boomers, on the other hand, continue to party like it's 1999, apparently. Between staring death in the face during Covid and the fact that many of them used the 0% interest-rate market to create substantial nest eggs, they appear to be willing to splurge still.

The slow-motion trainwreck that is the US economy lumbers on, propelled by trillions in "Inflation Reduction Act" dollars, while pieces of the engine fly off in all directions. Will the resumption of student loan payments - which generally have pre-Covid fixed interest rates, BTW - be the cow that throws it off the tracks, or will that too get flung off into the weeds like the energy price spike of '22 or the more recent banking tumult? I don't think that'll do it, though it may be the catalyst that creates the unemployment we need to finally derail this thing and get inflation back down below 5%.

We're definitely not out of the woods yet, IMHO. And, more importantly, in the minds of the Fed Govs, it seems after today's presser. Keep some powder dry, pop some corn, and grab a seat. Cuz, who doesn't love a trainwreck?! C'mon, you know you do! Admit it!

WaPo Article - There’s a widening spending gap between retirees and younger adults

[bagekko]

Yeah I too have read that boomers are a significant part of the spending that hasn't slowed, though I do not buy all the talk of the other gens slowing. I do not care about any inheritance, but I can imagine some looking at their parents blowing so much cash thinking nothing is going to be left LMAO. The older part of Gen X likely have reduced spending a lot for those that hoped to retire early or are close to retirement, but I don't think those in 40s has changed much . Millennial spending has slowed because they or friends have been impacted in tech layoffs so might be cautious. Gen Z (post 1998) well almost all of them are still living at home so... lol

Way back when I had student loans, some were fixed and some were variable, and perhaps some didn't get a rate until graduation, hard to remember. Very quickly I consolidated everything, but if there are variable loans out there, how likely did those consolidate them during covid to lock in the low rates. But with rates up, the cost of college for new loans just got much more expensive.

Anytime there's a hand out or anything you think people would save but it rarely happens. I remember of hearing many people 1 or 2 degrees of connections, that stopped paying their mortgage and were living it up during the big RE bust. I doubt the majority of those who accepted the SL payment pause saved anything.

Yeah a lot of unknowns and risk yet to come, the latest doom prophecy is commercial real estate, and in a few months starts the total sh!t show for the 24 election. At least there's no more debt ceiling fights until after that lol. Oh and used car prices are going down..... but that will bring a new problem to anyone who bought used past 18 months and is massively underwater.

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

I've already been reading about the bifurcation, by generation, of spending. Gens X, Z, and even to a degree millenials are all pulling back as they run out of funds for $8 mocha frappes and $15 designer cocktails. They are still spending, of course, because they have jobs and access to credit, but they're definitely feeling the pinch. Boomers, on the other hand, continue to party like it's 1999, apparently. Between staring death in the face during Covid and the fact that many of them used the 0% interest-rate market to create substantial nest eggs, they appear to be willing to splurge still.

The slow-motion trainwreck that is the US economy lumbers on, propelled by trillions in "Inflation Reduction Act" dollars, while pieces of the engine fly off in all directions. Will the resumption of student loan payments - which generally have pre-Covid fixed interest rates, BTW - be the cow that throws it off the tracks, or will that too get flung off into the weeds like the energy price spike of '22 or the more recent banking tumult? I don't think that'll do it, though it may be the catalyst that creates the unemployment we need to finally derail this thing and get inflation back down below 5%.

We're definitely not out of the woods yet, IMHO. And, more importantly, in the minds of the Fed Govs, it seems after today's presser. Keep some powder dry, pop some corn, and grab a seat. Cuz, who doesn't love a trainwreck?! C'mon, you know you do! Admit it!

WaPo Article - There’s a widening spending gap between retirees and younger adults

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by bagekko

Oh and used car prices are going down..... but that will bring a new problem to anyone who bought used past 18 months and is massively underwater.

In the most recent PCE report prices for both new and used vehicles were up, month-over-month, so maybe not such bad news for recent buyers after all.

Table 2.4.4U. Price Indexes for Personal Consumption Expenditures by Type of Product

[other_evolved]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

Scared. The longer the market keeps cranking along, the harder the fall will be when it finally does happen.

And yeah, my portfolio has done absolutely great for a long time, but I know what goes up, must come down eventually. I've been in the market long enough to know that.

Also, no one, and I mean no one, knows when it will happen. It will be unexpected and swift. Just like in the past.

The market ebbs, the market flows, rinse and repeat. There is always some doom and gloom on the horizon but the market marches on.

[tgrundke]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

In the most recent PCE report prices for both new and used vehicles were up, month-over-month, so maybe not such bad news for recent buyers after all.

Prices on certain used vehicles are definitely declining: anything in the $50k+ space that is a "common" vehicle is improving (3-Series, X3, X5, C-Class, etc.). Most high performance/exotics are retaining their values better than I'd expect.

That said, keep in mind that going into the back half of this year, the number of lease returns coming into the used market will drop significantly, and moving forward, the market will be short several million used cars due to production cuts.

Used car price increases may be moderating/dropping, but don't expect a significant draw-down in prices unless dealers need to sell under duress.

[bagekko]

Actually this summer will be big for 3 & 4 yr lease returns which are before COVID or before the supply issues. For example between now and September there will be more X7 lease returns than any year prior. My 3yr X7 lease is up, we are buying it out and keeping, there were tons of X7 leases as plenty of deals and supply.

Originally Posted by tgrundke

Prices on certain used vehicles are definitely declining: anything in the $50k+ space that is a "common" vehicle is improving (3-Series, X3, X5, C-Class, etc.). Most high performance/exotics are retaining their values better than I'd expect.

That said, keep in mind that going into the back half of this year, the number of lease returns coming into the used market will drop significantly, and moving forward, the market will be short several million used cars due to production cuts.

Used car price increases may be moderating/dropping, but don't expect a significant draw-down in prices unless dealers need to sell under duress.

[tgrundke]

Originally Posted by bagekko

Actually this summer will be big for 3 & 4 yr lease returns which are before COVID or before the supply issues. For example between now and September there will be more X7 lease returns than any year prior. My 3yr X7 lease is up, we are buying it out and keeping, there were tons of X7 leases as plenty of deals and supply.

Yeah, I just re-read what I wrote and I screwed that one up. You're absolutely correct.

I'm in discussions right now with two dealers who are selling 2021 M340 lease returns that came back to them at a $39,000 - $41k residuals and the dealers are listing them for $58k....

[XKxRome0ox]

All. Time. High.
And then some more
Wtf

[chassis]

MSFT ATH = good

[chassis]

Originally Posted by tgrundke

Prices on certain used vehicles are definitely declining

Or not.

Data from Cargurus. German brands included as this is a BMW site. The German brand data follows the overall market trend (Index Price, dark blue line on the chart).

[Tyga11]

I've been selling profits from big tech the past month. Continuing to do so and taking profits on days like this...

[Tyga11]

I imagine a lot of posters in here missed on the rally...

[JP10]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

I imagine a lot of posters in here missed on the rally...

Bet you missed a ton of it too lol

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by JP10

Bet you missed a ton of it too lol

I did not. I bought QQQ, META & NVIDIA late last year. I took advantage of weakness

[David70]

Originally Posted by other_evolved

The market ebbs, the market flows, rinse and repeat. There is always some doom and gloom on the horizon but the market marches on.

Agree. If you aren't trying to time the market and instead look medium/long term there is never anything to be scared about when it comes to the stock market.

My favorite is the people talking about a future recession but not giving a date or even a range. Somewhere in the future they will say they predicted it.

[chassis]

Originally Posted by David70

My favorite is the people talking about a future recession but not giving a date or even a range. Somewhere in the future they will say they predicted it.

My favorite too. Lots of it on this thread, sadly.

[Donatello.]

What is everyone buying this week? I've got some $ sitting in my IRA that I would like to buy some stocks and/or ETFs

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by Donatello.

What is everyone buying this week? I've got some $ sitting in my IRA that I would like to buy some stocks and/or ETFs

Disney for sure