[WWM3]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

Not "predicting" in an uncertain and chaotic environment is a good plan. Usually, I'd be ready to buy after a 10% drop in S&P and a Nasdaq down 14%, but that seems optimistic to me at this time.

I agree that cuts in government spending are only one piece of the equation. I think that tariff inflation, job losses and export headwinds are likely to weight more heavily in concert.

I'm with you.

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by ASAP

are folks still doubting a recession?

Anyone looking strictly at the circumstances would be hard pressed to "doubt" anything. Some may be looking at the market drops (or their portfolios) and hoping it is just a blip. Some may want to believe there is a plan and method in place, for personal reasons.

"Austerity" is what The EU practiced after the Great Recession, and more recently, which led to them lagging the U.S. pretty badly. It led to lower GDP, rising unemployment and lower inflation. This is essentially austerity. Perhaps there is a lesson in there somewhere? But, it was not coupled with lower exports and/or tariffs, which may not help inflation.

Is the lesson that there is no free lunch? Both literally and figuratively? I am all for containing our spending in a methodical and comprehensive fashion. Trying to unwind decades of overspending all at once, with a chainsaw, and ignoring the biggest contributors, is going to get interesting.

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

I'm not, but this coming recession is a bit "manufactured" I would say.

"Self-induced" word be my word of choice.