[mact3333]

If we dont get a hammer candle tomorrow things could get ugly...still have my short hedges in place but unless things perk up abit, might have to peel off longs instead.

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by mact3333

Posted on 8/9/11...position up 35% approx on both positions...getting close to target on SPX...will close out positions then and look to go short...I would look for 0.5-0.62 fibonnacci retrace level to go short....1230-1250 level.

Volume high on selloff, volume low on snapback rally...enough said.....

Posted on 8/15...1230 upside target met...this and charts said it was time to go short even if it was on short term basis.

Soon to go net long as a counter-trend move yet again.

[bulldog_yyc]

Originally Posted by stylinexpat

Tuesday should be quite Bloody. I see a Bloodbath coming up on Tuesday when US markets open. SPY puts at open should do well. This morning Asian stocks are a Bloodbath.

exaggerate much? 1-3% move in indices are now considered a bloodbath?

[stylinexpat]

Originally Posted by turkish335

exaggerate much? 1-3% move in indices are now considered a bloodbath?

Let's see if we can see 4-5% drop then today. These days it seems like they spread the losses out over a few days. Today and tomorrow should be bloody. I reckon after open it gets quite ugly today.

[bulldog_yyc]

Originally Posted by stylinexpat

Let's see if we can see 4-5% drop then today. These days it seems like they spread the losses out over a few days. Today and tomorrow should be bloody. I reckon after open it gets quite ugly today.

looking forward to it - the more fear mongering there is, the more bargains there are to be had, just like in early August sell-off (after which many names returned back to near 52 wk highs). I have been picking up a ton of US utility stocks that offer excellent yield, and are generally low beta, safer stocks. Id love for more to go on sale as they sure beat most corp. bond yields these days!

You technical guys crack me up - you realize that there are underlying businesses behind the names that you are analyzing that go beyond tracking out patterns on stock charts? I recognize technical analysis certainly has a role in investment management but a backwards looking analytic tool shouldn't be your only barometer. Not trying to be offensive - solely my opinion.

If you make money at the end of the day, regardless of strategy, its a good day! "Happy trading"!

[mact3333]

The SPX over the past 10 yrs is down abit...trading is the only way now unless you got lucky ad held AAPL the entire time....

Originally Posted by turkish335

looking forward to it - the more fear mongering there is, the more bargains there are to be had, just like in early August sell-off (after which many names returned back to near 52 wk highs). I have been picking up a ton of US utility stocks that offer excellent yield, and are generally low beta, safer stocks. Id love for more to go on sale as they sure beat most corp. bond yields these days!

You technical guys crack me up - you realize that there are underlying businesses behind the names that you are analyzing that go beyond tracking out patterns on stock charts? I recognize technical analysis certainly has a role in investment management but a backwards looking analytic tool shouldn't be your only barometer. Not trying to be offensive - solely my opinion.

If you make money at the end of the day, regardless of strategy, its a good day! "Happy trading"!

[bulldog_yyc]

Originally Posted by mact3333

The SPX over the past 10 yrs is down abit...trading is the only way now unless you got lucky ad held AAPL the entire time....

I dont buy into consumer names like AAPL (or lululemon, or linkedin, etc.. - all driven by hype IMO). I may as well go to the casino instead because forecasting handset/iphone sales or online advertising revenues is beyond my abilities.... I guess stick to the industries you know eh?

Its a tough one out there today! Energy names are on sale - who thinks oil will stay below $85 in the long term?

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by mact3333

If we dont get a hammer candle tomorrow things could get ugly...still have my short hedges in place but unless things perk up abit, might have to peel off longs instead.

We got hammer candle today...hmmm...looks like I am going to have to peel off short hedges.

We also have buying on weakness on SPY both friday and today...I am thinking odds favor we go up from here for abit.

[mact3333]

Wrote this another MB in June 10'...some of it right some wrong...but read the part about the europe...we paid them a favor in 08', now their turn...the new bear will be lead by europe imho.




on Identifying the bear market leadership 06/20/10 11:59 AM
Big Picture?

...sorry for long post.

1. For now deflation will win over inflation...remember all inflation/deflation describes is the true money supply, and in a fiat system we are talking about credit/debt and not actual money...M3 ROC has fallen off a cliff over the past few yrs..and now actual M3 is declining faster than it has over the past 80 yrs and is actually negative...loans are being defaulted on and banks arent lending...public isnt taking on irresponsible debt anymore either...this spells deflation...credit is contracting...over the next yr you will hear about people walking away from underwater homes not because they cant pay but because they refuse to pay on a negative equity loan anymore...psychology regarding this will change.

And people believe QE II or monetization will lead to hyperinflation right now but it wont...if QE worked why is the Nikkei trading down 75% from the peak still?...why havent home prices recovered in Japan?...if we truly had runaway inflation from the Fed money pumping the CRB, SPX/Dow and all metals would be making all time highs together right now in synchrony...but CRB is still almost 50% off from the high from 2 yrs ago...and Silver/Palladium/Platinum all made highs many months ago...only gold is making new highs because people are using this not as a commodity but rather a "true" currency or insurance policy...hence gold has decoupled from the USD.

2. europe will cont to implode...Spain is up next...listen to the people bringing up PIGS a yr or two ago now now...Italy will threaten to leave the EU as Germanys austerity measures on the EU will cause rioting in Italy/Spain next...Germans will prob protest that they are footing the bill for europes irresponsible spending..Greece is just starting to understand they are in a no win situation...you cannot demand to retire at age 50 during a world depression...the euro will cont to crash(although it is quite oversold right now hence a ST bounce will prob take place)...you wanna see a bullish/impulsive chart, look at the USD since Nov....the EU will most likely part ways with each other within next 5 yrs.

3. Atilla is right, if you want to short a sector, banks are a prime candidate...the banks are alive only because they convinced the "paid" lawmakers to get rid of mark to market...the banks arent lending because they need all the free money from the Feds just to stay alive...when you borrow at 0 % and there are products paying 2-3% its free money....but banks are sitting on 8-10 million homes in forclosure that they arent admitting to...this is the shadow inventory nobody talks about...they let people who havent paid rent for a yr to stay in their homes because they dont want the losses on their books..also, they dont want to have to write off the home equity lines and second mortgages on these defaulting homes if they were to go into foreclosure...more and more people are realizing this and just not paying their mortgages...hence you see people in restaurants and buying tv's at Best buy because this is free money for now...later this yr, you will see the 2nd wave of forclosures and RE will decline again...havent you recently seen more houses for sale again in your neighborhood?..I know I have.

4. There are no real jobs...it all fictitious govt census jobs making up 90% of the supposed new jobs...real unemployment is almost at depression levels near 22%...birth death model creating 100's of jobs according to the govt but we all know these are fake too...when the tent cities start to go up the govt and media will not be able to hide these facts anymore.

5. IMHO, a double dip is a very high high probability...the economic indicators I follow are rapidly declining...Im hearing about layoffs once again...just watch CBS marketwatch over the next 3 months...you will see it more and more...the so called recovery was a sugar high created by 2T being printed by the Feds and what did it buy?...not much...banks got rich and got bonuses but the avg Joe got nothing...people are waking up, they will start to vote out incumbents this fall and the media will not be able to make fun of the teapartiers anymore as they will be the majority soon.


Think about this guys, why are all the smart people moving out of the country?..why is Jim Rogers living in Singapore?...why is Atilla in Canada now?...and I bet Sol isnt that far behind him...are these guys stupid?...prob not...these guys know by the fundamentals or the charts/xtrends itself that we are in the early part of the GDII...govt can print a few trillion here and there...Feds can buy up a few trillions worth of govt treasuries here and there...but you cannot fight the tsunami of contracting debt and derivatives that are in the neighborhood of 1000T dollars.

There will come a time when the USD and the equity mkts completely decouple...the dollar will prob peak within the yr...then the dollar will start a big big decline but the equity mkts wont have a inverse relationship this time...people on CNBC will be hopeful all the way down to new lows...then there should be capitulation 2-3 yrs from now...after another 2-3 yrs, that will be the time to get long for the longhaul imho...by then we should have an SDR world currency backed by gold not because the IMF/World bank want this, but rather because the people will demand it.

And yes I believe QE II is coming...yes the Fed will prob monetize another 5-10T over the next yr or two but I dont think it will work this time as the bond vigilantes will demand interest rates so high it will in itself create stagflation/morphed depression where things you own will decline in price but things you need will increase in price.

[mact3333]

as expected, we are seeing buying...hammer candle from yesterday and buying on weakness data and delta charts showing buying coming in means we rally now...have a feeling I will be holding long positions for a few wks.

Is there anyone making any from from this threads calls???...

Is there anyone here that will step up and tell me where this mkt will go and why?...

[ES_TRADER]

Originally Posted by mact3333

We got hammer candle today...hmmm...looks like I am going to have to peel off short hedges.

We also have buying on weakness on SPY both friday and today...I am thinking odds favor we go up from here for abit.

candles dont mean shit sometimes..hammers and such sometimes are very nice fakeouts and its my belief that technicians intentially print certain types of bars to sucker the candle worshippers in......look at the nice hammer on 8/03....whoever bot the close on that basis got slaughtered the next day

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by richpuer

candles dont mean shit sometimes..hammers and such sometimes are very nice fakeouts and its my belief that technicians intentially print certain types of bars to sucker the candle worshippers in......look at the nice hammer on 8/03....whoever bot the close on that basis got slaughtered the next day

Its all context...hammers by themselves dont mean crap but with delta charts and buying on weakness data as well as timing charts supporting a bottoming view, it does mean shit......actually more than shit hehe.

There are no guarantees in life otherwise we could all retire...calls will be judged on accuracy(more winners than losers)...but I would like to see more participation on this thread or I will lose interest...but maybe its abit much to ask for on car website...

[kyleb350]

Looking good so far!

[ES_TRADER]

Originally Posted by mact3333

Its all context...hammers by themselves dont mean crap but with delta charts and buying on weakness data as well as timing charts supporting a bottoming view, it does mean shit......actually more than shit hehe.

There are no guarantees in life otherwise we could all retire...calls will be judged on accuracy(more winners than losers)...but I would like to see more participation on this thread or I will lose interest...but maybe its abit much to ask for on car website...

im trying to play ball here....participate, that is....anyhow, the ES hammer yesterday inspired me to buy the close...and sure enough paid off today...but ur right, context is key....and HHs and HLs...channel up, but thats a bear flag so im getting pretty nervous at the top of the TCL, IF we can get it @ 1246....that would also be met with the 200d ema...so probable target and confluence zone

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by richpuer

im trying to play ball here....participate, that is....anyhow, the ES hammer yesterday inspired me to buy the close...and sure enough paid off today...but ur right, context is key....and HHs and HLs...channel up, but thats a bear flag so im getting pretty nervous at the top of the TCL, IF we can get it @ 1246....that would also be met with the 200d ema...so probable target and confluence zone

I like your thinking....was thinking same myself...bet divergences come in around that level.

If we unexpectedly selloff right now and bear flag plays out, then we prob undercut the low from few wks ago and then we rally for a month or so...either way I think 1250 needs to be tested.

[txz4]

Originally Posted by mact3333

Its all context...hammers by themselves dont mean crap but with delta charts and buying on weakness data as well as timing charts supporting a bottoming view, it does mean shit......actually more than shit hehe.

There are no guarantees in life otherwise we could all retire...calls will be judged on accuracy(more winners than losers)...but I would like to see more participation on this thread or I will lose interest...but maybe its abit much to ask for on car website...

love this thread! still learning and this thread helps give me some direction. Keep it up please!

[ES_TRADER]

ES 1172 gap from yesterday needs to stay open for a further rotation upwards....we close this gap and say goodbye to longs...obama speech tonight potential catalyst...bidding on some weekly SPY calls here just for this

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by richpuer

ES 1172 gap from yesterday needs to stay open for a further rotation upwards....we close this gap and say goodbye to longs...obama speech tonight potential catalyst...bidding on some weekly SPY calls here just for this

somewhat agree with ya...we have a contracting triangle now and its ready to bust loose in one way or another...volatility should come with Obama speech...he will promise new jobs blah blah blah...only money printing will cause sustained rallies lasting more than a month.

I trimmed some long positions and hedged with SPY puts for now.

The Elliott Wavers think we have one more push down that needs to undercut 1173 low before a sustainable counter-trend rally happens...we shall see.

[ES_TRADER]

Originally Posted by mact3333

somewhat agree with ya...we have a contracting triangle now and its ready to bust loose in one way or another...volatility should come with Obama speech...he will promise new jobs blah blah blah...only money printing will cause sustained rallies lasting more than a month.

I trimmed some long positions and hedged with SPY puts for now.

The Elliott Wavers think we have one more push down that needs to undercut 1173 low before a sustainable counter-trend rally happens...we shall see.

i do see the triangle...and yes, so really either way....BO....i managed to get filled on weekly calls for a nickel so lotto ticket trade following the most recent short term trend, which is up...will be watching the futures mkt tongiht

[mact3333]

charts look bearish short term...might get that gap fill.

[ES_TRADER]

well, this is dust...took out the stops, closed the gap....look out below...we violated the daily TL as well so wouldnt be surprised if we took out Aug lows next week....

[mact3333]

just closed out all SPY put hedges for 40% gain...were at bottom of triangle now...selling pressure should ease abit now.

Hope people caught my bearish warning from yesterday but odds are it was too late cause it was prob after mkt hrs.

If we gap way below the bottom on triangle tomorrow and then rise up to touch underside, time to unload all longs imho.